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James

Member
Oct 25, 2017
271
US
The reason people use graphs and charts is display information, trends and highlight points more easily. You're pretty much saying "all the data is there, why would we ever need or want to display it differently?"

I mean, because we can?

That really isn't what I am saying. I apologise if I have been unclear.

I am saying it's not a good idea to highlight that particular comparison on a weekly basis. Maybe I am wrong, but that is what I think.

Just looking at LTD numbers doesn't tell you the whole story. Lifetime/aligned sales curves can give you good comparisons in terms of momentum, trending, peaks, valleys, and other neat info.

I do agree with you that it's not necessary specifically when it comes to PS4 vs Switch, since both the launch aligned and overall LTD trends are obvious. But comparing PS4 and PS3 for instance, or Switch and 3DS, or all platforms on the same plot can be pretty interesting.

Totally. Hiska-kun's charts, especially comparing Switch to the best selling consoles of all time, is the highlight of these threads for me.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,020
I mean if releasing in December is all you had to do to sell a lot more copies there would be a lot more December releases in general. Especially if it could make JRPGs sell 200k copies.
Seems like 200k is a magic number these days. <200k is niche, 200k in holidays is bad for a jrpg, 200k is the upper limit for ARMS etc. lol
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
2010 CY {2010.01.04 - 2011.01.02} 072. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.476) - 161.161 / 161.161
2011 CY {2011.01.03 - 2012.01.01} 498. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.476) - 16.498 / 177.659
2012 CY {2012.01.02 - 2012.12.30} 617. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.476) - 9.349 / 187.008
2013 CY {2012.12.31 - 2013.12.29} 604. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.476) - 6.840 / 193.848
2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} 807. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.476) - 2.777 / 196.625

2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03} 070. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |New Nintendo 2DS/New Nintendo 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.700) - 103.495 / 103.495
2016 CY {2016.01.04 - 2017.01.01} 357. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |New Nintendo 2DS/New Nintendo 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.700) - 10.288 / 113.783

2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03} 064. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥7.700) - 118.613 / 118.613
2016 CY {2016.01.04 - 2017.01.01} 389. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥7.700) - 8.753 / 127.366

After 3 weeks Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is at 129.426.

Famitsu estimated first month digital sales of Xenoblade Chronicles 3D at 2.478 and of Xenoblade Chronicles X at 22.805.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
I do wonder what could make Xenoblade games sell better. The quality is extremely high. Content is there. Reviews favorable.

IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?

It's just not good marketing (I don't mean advertising).

It's a series with no clear through line.
 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,129
Digital share will be bigger on this but it going much past 300k is unlikely. You're talking about a magnitude of growth basically making it the next biggest JRPG series after pokemon, ff, kingdom hearts and Persona by a large degree. I dont see it. 500k would be insanity.



Nothing says it is going to be an action RPG and nothing says it will be Western friendly. Everytime Monolith releases art people think it is reflective of their next game and it never is.
Idk how many times we have to point out that that art actually has something to do with their NEXT project, they also released art that was just art alongside it
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
I do wonder what could make Xenoblade games sell better. The quality is extremely high. Content is there. Reviews favorable.

IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?

It's just not good marketing (I don't mean advertising).

It's a series with no clear through line.

Final Fantasy does basically the same thing and gets away with it. Of course it's far, far more established, but it had to start from somewhere right?

I personally think the complexity of the combat system (and a lot of their other systems) is what's holding it back.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I do wonder what could make Xenoblade games sell better. The quality is extremely high. Content is there. Reviews favorable.

IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?

It's just not good marketing (I don't mean advertising).

It's a series with no clear through line.
Add to that the combat system. I have to say I was surprised seeing so many comments from people who liked what they saw but didn't want to buy the game because the combat system was\looked too complicated for them.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,794
Italy
Calling from the discussion of the previous thread where people were counting the number of million sellers. SW is looking to be down a big way from 3DS in said regard right now. Besides game output going down across the board due to higher specs, 10+ of 3DS's 20 or so million sellers were from YW and MH. YW has collapsed and MH is no longer on SW. DQ has also gone multi platform with the main one missing the SW on release.

I think you've been following Japanese sales for many years to not realize that a successful platform attracts big sellers and create new ones. The discussion is of course really premature (is it, though? Switch has already 3 million sellers in its first 9 months, which is on par with 3DS in the same timeframe) but we can look at historical performance and recent sales data to make some educated guess.

Switch will host all Nintendo franchises. Of course, some will disappear; some will be merged into one series (e.g., Mario Kart). As a hybrid platform, though, it will have a full Nintendo first party line-up. Now, among Nintendo franchises there are some safe million sellers, on top of Splatoon, 3D Mario and Mario Kart: Animal Crossing, Pokémon and Smash. The first one typically sees many entries on one console, such as remakes and enhanced versions. The second one typically one entry per console but 3DS got a spin-off as well---given how huge the franchise is, I'm totally expecting something similar on Switch. Then there are franchises that performed well on 3DS and might do as well on Switch, such as Luigi's Mansion, Super Mario Maker, 2D Mario and Tomodachi Life.

Further, and this is something people do not realize, Nintendo has showed to be able to create new million seller IPs, almost on a constant basis. Even on Wii U they were able to create a huge IP like Splatoon---why shouldn't be able to do something similar on Switch? Funny as that, 1, 2... Switch is selling around 300k and it might even reach 400k when it's all said and done. I'm pretty confident Splatoon success incentivized Nintendo to creare more new IPs (ARMS is an example) and the chance of them being successful are high.

Also, a successful platform like Switch is also able to sustain new million seller IPs from third parties. Nintendo handheld had many: 3DS had Yo-kai Watch, DS had Inazuma and Layton. Why should Switch be able to sustain new million sellers? Especially when it is going to explode among younger gamers. Further, many conversions from arcade/mobile are possible, and possibly see huge numbers: DS had Love&Berry, 3DS had Puzzle&Dragons and Monster Strike.

Of course, Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest will come sooner or later and will sell millions.



That's incredibly premature and ignoring Nintendo now combining software output and a host of other factors. But..I mean if you really want to have a discussion on Nintendo software declining I guess we can?

Haha, this week Psycho couldn't find anything else to shade a negative light on... Well, now he found Xenoblade 2 ;)
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Add to that the combat system. I have to say I was surprised seeing so many comments from people who liked what they saw but didn't want to buy the game because the combat system was\looked too complicated for them.

Yup that's me.

I won't say the character designs don't annoy me a bit too but things like that have very little to do with why I buy a game. If I know I will hate the actual gameplay I tend to stay far away.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,328
I think you mean a couple of hundred thousand.;-)

947f9aa60967bc6a0a65fef59b6dbaa7--body-parts.jpg
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,659
It's already happening, if PS4 continues the low flights at hardware and software it has lately we'll have a good explanation for that.
But wouldnt that happen regardless of the Switch? I might be remembering wrong, but i feel that people were talking about 2016/2017 being PS4's peak year, even before Switch was released, so a decline in PS4 hardware sales should have happened even with stronger or weaker Switch sales in that case. PS4 is also moving into its 5th year.
 

Horror

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
1,999
I do wonder what could make Xenoblade games sell better. The quality is extremely high. Content is there. Reviews favorable.

IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?

It's just not good marketing (I don't mean advertising).

It's a series with no clear through line.

They should look into making the next Mario (or all-stars) RPG. Get their name exposed to the crowd who'd normally wouldn't buy RPGs but will gobble up anything Mario. Isn't the reason Square collaborated with Nintendo for the first one to get more exposure in the West?
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
But wouldnt that happen regardless of the Switch? I might be remembering wrong, but i feel that people were talking about 2016/2017 being PS4's peak year, even before Switch was released, so a decline in PS4 hardware sales should have happened even with stronger or weaker Switch sales in that case. PS4 is also moving into its 5th year.
No, PS4 and 3DS sales have flatened from the moment Nintendo started increasing Switch shipments after Splatoon 2, holidays especially will go unnoticed for both.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Yup that's me.

I won't say the character designs don't annoy me a bit too but things like that have very little to do with why I buy a game. If I know I will hate the actual gameplay I tend to stay far away.
Did you avoid it because you thought the gameplay looked uninteresting or because it looked too difficult to comprehend? I didn't have the slightest clue what was going on in the pre-release footage, but I knew the game would let me acclimate and would slowly teach me the diffferent layers (which it did, and playing the game was like a second nature quite quickly after learning most of the systems: I never have to think about how systems work, just when to start the cycle towards activating them). I fully understand youre staying away if it looks boring, but if it looks too difficult then you forget that games teach you all of these mechanics in a natural way and let you practice a lot before moving to the next system.
 

Deku

Member
Oct 25, 2017
242
I do wonder what could make Xenoblade games sell better. The quality is extremely high. Content is there. Reviews favorable.

IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?

It's just not good marketing (I don't mean advertising).

It's a series with no clear through line.
You're forgetting these guys as a tie in through each game.
1.jpg

Kidding aside, yeah, the IP as a whole seems pretty confusing, especially for new people coming into the series. I enjoy these games a ton, but the way they are, it'd be hard to grow by large amounts. But, as long as they keep the budget in check and not take too much time, they don't need to be huge hits to be successful.
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,659
No, PS4 and 3DS sales have flatened from the moment Nintendo started increasing Switch shipments after Splatoon 2, holidays especially will go unnoticed for both.
Well, its possible that the Switch will have some effect, i agree to that, but i think a decline would have had a bigger chance to happen anyway considering the age of the system. Thats why i think its hard to know for sure how much the Switch or the age of the PS4 will be the main reason for the potential decline. But theres no way to prove either of this regardless.
 

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,832
I do wonder what could make Xenoblade games sell better. The quality is extremely high. Content is there. Reviews favorable.

IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?

It's just not good marketing (I don't mean advertising).

It's a series with no clear through line.

Aside from a complex battle system, the game also has systems on top of systems that have their own systems. To make this issue worse, xb2 has no instructions outside of the tutorial, so you cant reread them in game.

Im 70 hours in and i ran into another tutorial yesterday, the game could have cut half of its systems and probably been better off.
 

V0ltg

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,610
It's absolutely baffling how posters on this forum were once XBC2 released. It sold more than its predecesors on release week and now it's already outsold XCX roughly 3 weeks after release.

And that's not sucess enough? Methinks people don't even look at trends and market data and suddenly want something to sell copiously based on emotions. That's not how it works.

I wish people would just -think- a bit before hurling everyone and everything into a crazy narrative divorced from the reality of the data. Hyperbole is king.

And it's not just Xenoblade, either. It's any nonesense that can be latched onto like the ridiculous PS4 vs Switch 9mo., 10mil difference.

*breathes*

Sorry, it just upsets me that we have people sharing numbers and insights into things in a measured and nuanced manner, but then someone posts a hot take and it all goes into the trash bin.

Thank you. Seriously, the game already outsold X and will easily be the best selling game in the franchise, yet people act like the game is one huge bomba. Not sure what kind of expectations people had.

They should look into making the next Mario (or all-stars) RPG. Get their name exposed to the crowd who'd normally wouldn't buy RPGs but will gobble up anything Mario.

Worst take I've read so far.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Did you avoid it because you thought the gameplay looked uninteresting or because it looked too difficult to comprehend? I didn't have the slightest clue what was going on in the pre-release footage, but I knew the game would let me acclimate and would slowly teach me the diffferent layers (which it did, and playing the game was like a second nature quite quickly after learning most of the systems: I never have to think about how systems work, just when to start the cycle towards activating them).

I played both XC1 and XCX and had to stop within a few hours for both because of the combat. My issue is that I found it to be a combination of being extremely slow and boring while also being way too complicated for its own good. Autoattacks are pointless and do almost nothing to the enemy, and having a huge list of arts with very subtle differences between each other made me feel like all the preparation and tinkering in the world wouldn't wind up changing how the combat progressed if I just use the default arts as they are unlocked. XCX also overwhelmed me with all of its systems, not just the combat. I was willing to stick that one out a lot more because A) the Wii U gamepad let me play games a lot more without hogging the TV and B) I knew at one point I would unlock kickass mechs. Alas I couldn't will myself to get to that point.

I've watched a lot of videos of XC2's combat system, even ones attempting to explain how easy and simple it is to master, and I just sit there looking dumbfounded at the screen because I have no idea what any of these videos are trying to say. I don't know how to really describe it more than that, but let's just say I don't really find MMO-like combat to be at all entertaining or interesting in a single player game.

On the other hand I think Baten Kaitos had probably the best combat system of any RPG I've ever played. It was so incredibly different from anything else out there, but it was also extremely simple. You have a card, it causes a certain effect. Boom. Now, mastering that combat system became fairly complicated over time, but I could at least learn it while the game ramped up the complexity because even just simply using single cards with no combos or straights or flushes (I don't think that's what they were called but that's how I remember them) can still get you past a good chunk of the enemies. That's where XC falls short- you need to learn very quickly how to use the more esoteric and complicated aspects of the combat system or you can't really progress much.
 
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funtastrophe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
255
Well Switch will have 3 by the end of this year.
Games that will surely sell a million:
Animal Crossing Switch
Smash Bros Switch
Pokémon Switch
Zelda Breath of the Wild(Its already almost at 800k with digital and will leg it out next year)
There is 7 there already that'll likely be million sellers. Add in Mario Maker, New 2d Mario, new monster Hunter, etc. I can see it easily have 10 1 Million+ sellers. That doesn't even add in the possibility of another Mario Kart, Pokémon, Monster Hunter, etc.
While the 3ds has a lot of million sellers, Switch while not having Yokai Watch probably up there will have Zelda and Splatoon.

It definitely has a ways to go. With 10 games selling a million or more, it would still fall short of all other successful Nintendo consoles this millennium. Still, it's a decent start considering we don't know what else could join the party, as it were. That's why last thread I felt fairly sure that the system will eventually overtake the Wii's total.

Million%20Sellers%20-%20201712201038r.png


Assuming that I have my weeks aligned well enough and haven't missed crucial entries, Switch just matched Wii's million-seller count (@2007w37) and stands a pretty good chance of besting it for a time thanks to MK8DX, but between 16 and 21 weeks from now (Wii@2008w1-w6) this should be easily reversed.

3DS started off pretty slow, but two aligned weeks from now it sees 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 hitting @2011w51, followed by Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate just two weeks later, probably matching or exceeding Switch's million count (and at the front of our current "Aligned Week 42" race until the aforementioned Wii boost).

It looks like Wii U and PS4 are matched in million sellers, both weeks-aligned and right now, but that's counting FFXV, which isn't really confirmed, and it's not counting Super Mario Maker and NSMBU, for which I also haven't found specific Media Create retail confirmation of crossing a million.

To answer an earlier question (I answered it in last week's thread, but there was a big delay between Q&A), the chart is made with LibreOffice. At some point, I may start feeling ashamed and put it all into a real RDBMS so updates to the chart are less prone to human error and fixes can be more rapidly implemented.

I'm a Sales Age/Era fanboy, so I think deep down I've always just wanted to have a chart of some sort that I could post, if only for kicks.
 

mugurumakensei

Elizabeth, I’m coming to join you!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,848
But wouldnt that happen regardless of the Switch? I might be remembering wrong, but i feel that people were talking about 2016/2017 being PS4's peak year, even before Switch was released, so a decline in PS4 hardware sales should have happened even with stronger or weaker Switch sales in that case. PS4 is also moving into its 5th year.
4th year not 5th. PS4 was released Feb 2014 in Japan. This should be the peak of sales. Also, when Switch increases in sales by a big percentage, everything else tends to go down.
 

rAndom

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,866
Xenoblade 2 showing some holiday legs. Nice to see it slowly reach 150k retail.

Splatoon 2 about to exceed Splatoon 1. I remember somebody said Splatoon 2 will not be as big as Splatoon 1 in Japan, and here we are.

And congrats to Switch for 3 million-seller games before the year ends (I'm already counting MK8D).
 

Grads

Member
Oct 25, 2017
754
Xenoblade 2 showing some holiday legs. Nice to see it slowly reach 150k retail.

Splatoon 2 about to exceed Splatoon 1. I remember somebody said Splatoon 2 will not be as big as Splatoon 1 in Japan, and here we are.

And congrats to Switch for 3 million-seller games before the year ends (I'm already counting MK8D).
Might as well count Mario Kart, digital would have helped it hit the mark already.
 

Deleted member 8112

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,101
I do wonder what could make Xenoblade games sell better. The quality is extremely high. Content is there. Reviews favorable.

IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?

It's just not good marketing (I don't mean advertising).

It's a series with no clear through line.
It's a hard to do so because
Xenoblade 2 is directly connected to Xenoblade 1 in the best way a fan of 1 could ask, but it's such an amazing twist you can't just put it out.
 

TheDinoman

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,296
I mean, each Xenoblade having their own different world, settings, characters and what not isn't that far off from how Final Fantasy typically does things, right?

Just like how each mainline FF game shares some elements (like Chocobos and having a guy named Cid every game), each XB game also share some things, like Nopons.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
though that's more likely due to the switch's momentum than the game's own merits. I wouldnt put it past that Monolith Soft's medieval game sells better if it's a more appealing product, aesthetically and gameplay-wise
who cares if it does around 300k that would be a huge success and guarantee a sequel. if they manage something like 200k-250k that would be still auite good
 

sinonobu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,027
You're forgetting these guys as a tie in through each game.
1.jpg

Kidding aside, yeah, the IP as a whole seems pretty confusing, especially for new people coming into the series. I enjoy these games a ton, but the way they are, it'd be hard to grow by large amounts. But, as long as they keep the budget in check and not take too much time, they don't need to be huge hits to be successful.
Tora, Anikini No Otomodachi Ni Narumo!
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Calling from the discussion of the previous thread where people were counting the number of million sellers. SW is looking to be down a big way from 3DS in said regard right now. Besides game output going down across the board due to higher specs, 10+ of 3DS's 20 or so million sellers were from YW and MH. YW has collapsed and MH is no longer on SW. DQ has also gone multi platform with the main one missing the SW on release.

Million%20Sellers%20-%20201712201038r.png


I am guessing that your claim isn't based on data but on some kind of divination at this point.
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
27,665
Atlus doesn't see the need for a successor. They're still putting most of their effort into the 3ds.
Actually no....SMT V shows that the Switch is a big part of their future. 3DS releases are mostly rehashes so they can re-use assets and release games while the next SMT/Persona are in development.
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
I do wonder what could make Xenoblade games sell better. The quality is extremely high. Content is there. Reviews favorable.

IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?

It's just not good marketing (I don't mean advertising).

It's a series with no clear through line.
well i may have news for you
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Holy switch

If japan doesnt put everything on switch ASAP they dumb

I think it's better to say Japanese publishers need to get more content out on Switch in general, you'll trigger people saying they need to put everything on Switch.

I'm really looking forward to Famitsu's end of year interview with devs though and how many will say how sick the Switch is then proceed to never make a game for it.
 

Braaier

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
13,237
Actually no....SMT V shows that the Switch is a big part of their future. 3DS releases are mostly rehashes so they can re-use assets and release games while the next SMT/Persona are in development.
Okay. But we still have Q2 releasing on 3DS. And we only know about SMT V. Where will the next Etrian Odyssey game be? Or any of the S/MT spinoffs? And why wasn't Strange Journey released on the Switch? It just released in Japan and they could have probably ported it to the Switch with not much more effort. Same with Radiant Historia
 
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