In early September 2017 PS4 was ahead by about 385K compared to 2016 (Media Create).
Now it's even in doubt if PS4 YTD for 2017 is going to be up YoY.
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Media Create Sales: Week 50, 2017 (Dec 11 - Dec 17)
- Thread starter Chris1964
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Now it's even in doubt if PS4 YTD for 2017 is going to be up YoY.
But he did use a point of data for his prediction. 40% of 3DS's million-selling games are either from the Yo-Kai Watch series, which is done as far as we can tell right now, or the Monster Hunter series, which is late to the party enough that we may not get as many for Switch as we did for 3DS. For example, launch-aligned 3DS got its first million-selling Monster Hunter game about a month ago. Switch does not yet have a title in the series announced. That's a surmountable obstacle, but not a trivially surmountable obstacle.
I think I was just balking at the word "divination" because it implies a belief based on zero data, and it felt like an across-the-board dismissal and shutdown instead of an attempt to further the discussion. Maybe the original poster in this sub-thread was making a belief based on not a lot of data, and I'd agree completely with your prognosis of "We don't know",but my omens suggest that if absolute certainty were the bar we set for making predictions, few people would post in these threads at all (now THAT's an example of divination!).
My secret shame: I'm elated that a picture I posted on the Internet is helping to fuel the console war. :D
And I'm sure you can see how rare those games are.
MH will not come as frequent on the 3DS as on the SW. SW is looking to get its first MH in 2019 or even 2020. DQ is now multiplatform.
Does the data depict this?
Project Re from ATLUS?
Nintendo isn't the question here, apart from them taking longer to make games. Around half of the million+ sellers on 3DS were from MH and YW. DQ accounted for many as well and now its multiplatform.
Obviously new IPs are expected but their reception is questionable and so at this moment there looks to be a big decline.
This has more to do with PS4 having a strong Q1 compared to a weaker holiday software wise.
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2m was my original prediction, word of mouth is helping so far but it won't end very far from that number and it's not that sales of this range is anything special. It's positive though it recovered after Sun / Moon sales.
West is the big problem. 60-70% down from S/M is a sharp drop for third entry that will lead to a low WW number.
Creatures Inc (Pokemon Trading Card Game, Detective Pikachu) is looking for people with Unity/UE4 experience. even posts a picture of Pikachu in UE4. PokePark 3 in UE4 when?
https://www.creatures.co.jp/recruit/1261/
https://www.creatures.co.jp/recruit/1261/
Creatures Inc (Pokemon Trading Card Game, Detective Pikachu) is looking for people with Unity/UE4 experience. even posts a picture of Pikachu in UE4. PokePark 3 in UE4 when?
https://www.creatures.co.jp/recruit/1261/
Back when Orgen said there would be a Switch UE4 that would be a big story I thought it could be Pokémon.
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PS4 big problems started after Dragon Quest stepped out and Splatoon 2 stepped in. If Nintendo continues with big shipments next quarter not many things will change for PS4 when Monster Hunter hype dies.
There are many candidate titles ready for undeperforming.
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Creatures Inc (Pokemon Trading Card Game, Detective Pikachu) is looking for people with Unity/UE4 experience. even posts a picture of Pikachu in UE4. PokePark 3 in UE4 when?
https://www.creatures.co.jp/recruit/1261/
Detective Pikachu Switch port please.
Nintendo is supporting only one console now, we are going to see more games and more franchises than on 3DS. 3DS never got a 3D Mario, 3D Zelda or Splatoon. All these titles are going to be million-seller on Switch.
On 3DS specifically only VII and XI sold over a million each.
That's ok. Splatoon can be milked for sequels and spin-offs to offset against those loses.
It was about Monolith Soft Psycho_Mantis, so about the thing with the girl in the red cape they showed.
PS4 in 2017 consistently outperformed 2016 sales until early September (basically until Dragon Quest XI effect wear off and PS4 Slim introduction kicked in for YTD 2016).
August/September 2017 is also when Switch stock situation began improving.
That's how I read the situation too.
Many is what, two? Plus, it's not like DQ being multiplat will prevent its biggest releases from selling over a million on Switch in Japan if they're day-and-date with the other versions.
The remakes for 4 to 6 and IX were on DS, to keep in mind. Those also did sell over a million in Japan.
There is massive overlap between Nintendo consoles and you forget that 3DS game development is far quicker.
3Ds had 3D land?
I can't think of any addition with the one console approach other than having both 2D and 3D Zelda.
Splatoon alone is not going offset those losses even if it releases yearly.
PS4 last fall: Slim (with price cut), Persona 5, Pro launch, VR launch, FF XV launch
PS4 this fall: .... I guess better selling COD?
I don't see how Switch was the reason for lower second half of the year this year.
So that doesn't a actually matter. It means more regular releases from Nintendo first party which will likely result consolidation of the million sellers to 1 platform rather than two.
It would have to be a third unique version altogether to manage that.
That's an interesting thought...
If the next mainline Pokemon was on UE4 that would be a massive get for Epic. I wonder if that was part of the terms of the deal which got them working on UE4 compatibility so quickly.
It appears Xenoblade is doing well worldwide
https://www.resetera.com/threads/the-best-selling-switch-games-of-2017.12046/
https://www.resetera.com/threads/the-best-selling-switch-games-of-2017.12046/
When its in a "Can sell million copies in Japan alone" condition
Or that Tales game. I'm assuming plans have changed since Namco said they would be coming this FY.
this is Creatures though, they only make spin-offs like Pokemon Ranger, Detective Pikachu, or PokePark. would still be a big get since Creatures probably wouldnt change engines anytime soon and that Pokemon models would be more future proof to take advantage of physically based rendering. maybe Pokemon Gen 8 will use physically based rendering as well? I cant imagine Game Freak being that forward thinking
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That PS4 software releases failed to generate hype doesn't mean they didn't exist.
Just for first party Everybody's Golf and Gran Turismo are Sony's big sellers in Japan. The number of new releases far exceeded last year's for the same period. A notable title in December is important loss, that's true.
That's the most impressive thing this week imo. I wonder how Japanese devs will react to that.
Oh wow not sure how I missed that. I thought I remembered Creatures at least assisting on mainline games in the past... am I mistaken?
Those who have seen Switch's trajectory so far in Japan likely are already working on PS4 and Switch cross platform games
This. Chris hasn't shown any data to validate his theory.
No it doesn't as there is massive over lap between the top titles of a Nintendo home console and a Nintendo portable. The speed of their software pipeline is also yet to be seen as games become more ambitious.
I was under the impression they made all of the Pokémon models that have been used since the Pokédex thingymabob on 3DS.
I'm not saying it was the reason.
I'm saying it was one of the reasons.
Historically there are known cases in which a booming console compressed the sales of other "weaker" consoles active in the same timeframe.
My guess is that this effect will be more visible during 2018 when Nintendo should steadily ship more Switch consoles in Japan.
you're not mistaken, but they do a lot of modeling work (including the pokemon models) for the main games. if they're working in UE4, then the texture work for the pokemon is getting a major upgrade. whether we'll see it in Game Freak's games is another question
Sorry, its the 4th year indeed.
True. Do you think PS4 would have sold ~400k more this year if it wasnt for the Switch?
I'd be shocked if the next mainline game used UE4. It seems like it would be better for them to just upgrade the engine that they know and are comfortable with, they aren't in any type of graphics arms race.
GT and Everybodys Golf had been in decline forever and I don't see how Switch affected the performance of those titles. GT Sport has had poor start in Europe (by GT standards) and US too compared to previous entries and Switch has absolutely nothing to to with decline of GT in those regions at least. Outside of those two titles I just can't come up with any title that was supposed to be hw pushing title this fall for PS4 (?). Bigger amount of releases doesn't mean that much if most of those releases don't really sell any notable amount. There was nothing like Persona or FF XV for the system this fall. Not to mention the launch of multiple new models and price cut.
I mean perhaps it's one of the reasons. I just don't yet see data supporting it. PS4 would had had worse second half compared to last year even without Switch existing.
Good Feel is switching to UE4 despite having the Woolly World engine.*shrugs*
Yes it does as there will be more releases.
You act as if yearly million sellers don't exist. An over lap doesn't suddenly stop people who liked a game from buying a sequel a few years later.
Only having one platform means some million sellers that only released once per gen per platform can release more than that.
This is not a difficult concept.
If Switch performed just like another WiiU I think PS4 would have had a bigger mindshare and would have sold more.
How much more is not quantifiable.
I also think with such scenario the situation of the japanese console market would have been very bleak.
well, they said they made new tools with Sun and Moon. maybe that means they also upgraded their rendering technologies. but the differences between the 3DS's GPU and the Switch's is so huge, I fear that Game Freak's switch game will still be underwhelming.
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When Switch takes almost all the money of consumers it's expected everything else will struggle to maintain momentum, it's not an unlimited market.
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