Well, its possible that the Switch will have some effect, i agree to that, but i think a decline would have had a bigger chance to happen anyway considering the age of the system. Thats why i think its hard to know for sure how much the Switch or the age of the PS4 will be the main reason for the potential decline. But theres no way to prove either of this regardless.
That's what I call divination. Actually, the Switch has been faster than the 3DS in this "million-seller race" so saying that Switch will be, at the end, way behind the 3DS is making blind guesses. Before the 3DS, what was Yokai ? New IPs are created every gen and can explode on a successful console. We don't know the extent of Nintendo output too and the 2018 line-up yet.
But he did use a point of data for his prediction. 40% of 3DS's million-selling games are either from the Yo-Kai Watch series, which is done as far as we can tell right now, or the Monster Hunter series, which is late to the party enough that we may not get as many for Switch as we did for 3DS. For example, launch-aligned 3DS got its first million-selling Monster Hunter game about a month ago. Switch does not yet have a title in the series announced. That's a surmountable obstacle, but not a trivially surmountable obstacle.
I think I was just balking at the word "divination" because it implies a belief based on zero data, and it felt like an across-the-board dismissal and shutdown instead of an attempt to further the discussion. Maybe the original poster in this sub-thread was making a belief based on not a lot of data, and I'd agree completely with your prognosis of "We don't know",but my omens suggest that if absolute certainty were the bar we set for making predictions, few people would post in these threads at all (now THAT's an example of divination!).
My secret shame: I'm elated that a picture I posted on the Internet is helping to fuel the console war. :D
No, PS4 and 3DS sales have flatened from the moment Nintendo started increasing Switch shipments after Splatoon 2, holidays especially will go unnoticed for both.
Nintendo isn't the question here, apart from them taking longer to make games. Around half of the million+ sellers on 3DS were from MH and YW. DQ accounted for many as well and now its multiplatform.
Obviously new IPs are expected but their reception is questionable and so at this moment there looks to be a big decline.
2m was my original prediction, word of mouth is helping so far but it won't end very far from that number and it's not that sales of this range is anything special. It's positive though it recovered after Sun / Moon sales.
West is the big problem. 60-70% down from S/M is a sharp drop for third entry that will lead to a low WW number.
Creatures Inc (Pokemon Trading Card Game, Detective Pikachu) is looking for people with Unity/UE4 experience. even posts a picture of Pikachu in UE4. PokePark 3 in UE4 when?
Creatures Inc (Pokemon Trading Card Game, Detective Pikachu) is looking for people with Unity/UE4 experience. even posts a picture of Pikachu in UE4. PokePark 3 in UE4 when?
PS4 big problems started after Dragon Quest stepped out and Splatoon 2 stepped in. If Nintendo continues with big shipments next quarter not many things will change for PS4 when Monster Hunter hype dies.
There are many candidate titles ready for undeperforming.
Creatures Inc (Pokemon Trading Card Game, Detective Pikachu) is looking for people with Unity/UE4 experience. even posts a picture of Pikachu in UE4. PokePark 3 in UE4 when?
Nintendo isn't the question here, apart from them taking longer to make games. Around half of the million+ sellers on 3DS were from MH and YW. DQ accounted for many as well and now its multiplatform.
Nintendo is supporting only one console now, we are going to see more games and more franchises than on 3DS. 3DS never got a 3D Mario, 3D Zelda or Splatoon. All these titles are going to be million-seller on Switch.
Nintendo isn't the question here, apart from them taking longer to make games. Around half of the million+ sellers on 3DS were from MH and YW. DQ accounted for many as well and now its multiplatform.
Obviously new IPs are expected but their reception is questionable and so at this moment there looks to be a big decline.
PS4 in 2017 consistently outperformed 2016 sales until early September (basically until Dragon Quest XI effect wear off and PS4 Slim introduction kicked in for YTD 2016).
August/September 2017 is also when Switch stock situation began improving.
PS4 big problems started after Dragon Quest stepped out and Splatoon 2 stepped in. If Nintendo continues with big shipments next quarter not many things will change for PS4 when Monster Hunter hype dies.
There are already many candidate titles ready for undeperforming.
Many is what, two? Plus, it's not like DQ being multiplat will prevent its biggest releases from selling over a million on Switch in Japan if they're day-and-date with the other versions.
Many is what, two? Plus, it's not like DQ being multiplat will prevent its biggest releases from selling over a million on Switch in Japan if they're day-and-date with the other versions.
Nintendo is supporting only one console now, we are going to see more games and more franchises than on 3DS. 3DS never got a 3D Mario, 3D Zelda or Splatoon. All these titles are going to be million-seller on Switch.
Nintendo is supporting only one console now, we are going to see more games and more franchises than on 3DS. 3DS never got a 3D Mario, 3D Zelda or Splatoon. All these titles are going to be million-seller on Switch.
PS4 in 2017 consistently outperformed 2016 sales until early September (basically until Dragon Quest XI effect wear off and PS4 Slim introduction kicked in for YTD 2016).
So that doesn't a actually matter. It means more regular releases from Nintendo first party which will likely result consolidation of the million sellers to 1 platform rather than two.
If the next mainline Pokemon was on UE4 that would be a massive get for Epic. I wonder if that was part of the terms of the deal which got them working on UE4 compatibility so quickly.
If the next mainline Pokemon was on UE4 that would be a massive get for Epic. I wonder if that was part of the terms of the deal which got them working on UE4 compatibility so quickly.
this is Creatures though, they only make spin-offs like Pokemon Ranger, Detective Pikachu, or PokePark. would still be a big get since Creatures probably wouldnt change engines anytime soon and that Pokemon models would be more future proof to take advantage of physically based rendering. maybe Pokemon Gen 8 will use physically based rendering as well? I cant imagine Game Freak being that forward thinking
That PS4 software releases failed to generate hype doesn't mean they didn't exist.
Just for first party Everybody's Golf and Gran Turismo are Sony's big sellers in Japan. The number of new releases far exceeded last year's for the same period. A notable title in December is important loss, that's true.
this is Creatures though, they only make spin-offs like Pokemon Ranger, Detective Pikachu, or PokePark. would still be a big get since Creatures probably wouldnt change engines anytime soon and that Pokemon models would be more future proof to take advantage of physically based rendering. maybe Pokemon Gen 8 will use physically based rendering as well? I cant imagine Game Freak being that forward thinking
No it doesn't as there is massive over lap between the top titles of a Nintendo home console and a Nintendo portable. The speed of their software pipeline is also yet to be seen as games become more ambitious.
I'm not saying it was the reason.
I'm saying it was one of the reasons.
Historically there are known cases in which a booming console compressed the sales of other "weaker" consoles active in the same timeframe.
My guess is that this effect will be more visible during 2018 when Nintendo should steadily ship more Switch consoles in Japan.
you're not mistaken, but they do a lot of modeling work (including the pokemon models) for the main games. if they're working in UE4, then the texture work for the pokemon is getting a major upgrade. whether we'll see it in Game Freak's games is another question
4th year not 5th. PS4 was released Feb 2014 in Japan. This should be the peak of sales. Also, when Switch increases in sales by a big percentage, everything else tends to go down.
I'd be shocked if the next mainline game used UE4. It seems like it would be better for them to just upgrade the engine that they know and are comfortable with, they aren't in any type of graphics arms race.
That PS4 software releases failed to generate hype doesn't mean they didn't exist.
Just for first party Everybody's Golf and Gran Turismo are Sony's big sellers in Japan. The number of new releases far exceeded last year's for the same period. A notable title in December is important loss, that's true.
GT and Everybodys Golf had been in decline forever and I don't see how Switch affected the performance of those titles. GT Sport has had poor start in Europe (by GT standards) and US too compared to previous entries and Switch has absolutely nothing to to with decline of GT in those regions at least. Outside of those two titles I just can't come up with any title that was supposed to be hw pushing title this fall for PS4 (?). Bigger amount of releases doesn't mean that much if most of those releases don't really sell any notable amount. There was nothing like Persona or FF XV for the system this fall. Not to mention the launch of multiple new models and price cut.
I'm not saying it was the reason.
I'm saying it was one of the reasons.
Historically there are known cases in which a booming console compressed the sales of other "weaker" consoles active in the same timeframe.
My guess is that this effect will be more visible during 2018 when Nintendo should steadily ship more Switch consoles in Japan.
I mean perhaps it's one of the reasons. I just don't yet see data supporting it. PS4 would had had worse second half compared to last year even without Switch existing.
I'd be shocked if the next mainline game used UE4. It seems like it would be better for them to just upgrade the engine that they know and are comfortable with, they aren't in any type of graphics arms race.
This. Chris hasn't shown any data to validate his theory.
No it doesn't as there is massive over lap between the top titles of a Nintendo home console and a Nintendo portable. The speed of their software pipeline is also yet to be seen as games become more ambitious.
If Switch performed just like another WiiU I think PS4 would have had a bigger mindshare and would have sold more.
How much more is not quantifiable.
I also think with such scenario the situation of the japanese console market would have been very bleak.
I'd be shocked if the next mainline game used UE4. It seems like it would be better for them to just upgrade the engine that they know and are comfortable with, they aren't in any type of graphics arms race.
well, they said they made new tools with Sun and Moon. maybe that means they also upgraded their rendering technologies. but the differences between the 3DS's GPU and the Switch's is so huge, I fear that Game Freak's switch game will still be underwhelming.
GT and Everybodys Golf had been in decline forever and I don't see how Switch affected the performance of those titles. GT Sport has had poor start in Europe (by GT standards) and US too compared to previous entries and Switch has absolutely nothing to to with decline of GT in those regions at least. Outside of those two titles I just can't come up with any title that was supposed to be hw pushing title this fall for PS4 (?). Bigger amount of releases doesn't mean that much if most of those releases don't really sell any notable amount. There was nothing like Persona or FF XV for the system this fall. Not to mention the launch of multiple new models and price cut.