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NPD May 2018: State of Decay 2 #1 software, PS4 tops hardware charts

Benji

US Sales Insider
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Oct 25, 2017
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If Spider-Man reviews 92 or north I expect it to be bigger or at the very least move more consoles among those who never considered a PlayStation before. It will be advertised by Marvel as well as Sony.
It would need enormously positive reviews to have a shot, yeah. I was always adamant it wouldn't pass GoW, and I still dont think it will. But recent things have made me slightly less on my stance on it
 

~Fake

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Oct 27, 2017
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It would need enormously positive reviews to have a shot, yeah. I was always adamant it wouldn't pass GoW, and I still dont think it will. But recent things have made me slightly less on my stance on it
Do you think that Sony strategy about one week GOW realese made a good role in sales?
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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Do you think that Sony strategy about one week GOW realese made a good role in sales?
Releasing reviews early you mean?

If so yes 100%. Review scores, and them hitting early had a very large impact. Buzz went from high for it pre launch, to through the stratosphere
 

~Fake

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Releasing reviews early you mean?

If so yes 100%. Review scores, and them hitting early had a very large impact. Buzz went from high for it pre launch, to through the stratosphere
Thx for the answer. Spider-man indeed have a great chance after those previews, but I not seeing so much PR in the same way GoW have, but still Spider-Man its god gamn popular. September It's going to be a hard month for scale all those sales.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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I'll say this. Spidey has a better shot of topping GoW than I thought a month or so ago.

Still not sure if it does it or not though
Pre-order / reserve data.

But I agree that it probably wont. It's still more likely than it was a month ago, because yeah....its tracking real good
Main thing is God of War is one of the highest reviewed games of the generation and got an enormous last minute surge. It always tracked well but reviews sent it to a different level.

But....yeah I mean Spidey is tracking favorably against GoW in the same time frame from launch

If I had to bet on it though I still see GoW ahead in the end. Probably not by a small margin either.
 
Oct 28, 2017
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If Spider-Man scores 50 Meta, it’s over. Sony Marvel and Inaomniac will split ways. If Spider-Man scores 90+ I expect huge sales, sequels, and continued partnership.
 
If Spider-Man scores 50 Meta, it’s over. Sony Marvel and Inaomniac will split ways. If Spider-Man scores 90+ I expect huge sales, sequels, and continued partnership.
Possibly. If it has a low meta score but sells a ton, then perhaps not. State of Decay 2 wasn't as high on the meta scale as many would have liked, but the sales were amazing and you can guarantee a 3rd game is coming.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Uh, congrats to SoD2, I guess. I wonder how much heavy lifting that $30 price tag did.

Also: If SoD2 really managed to hit number 1, I'm gonna go ahead and say that Days Gone is gonna have no issue.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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This just goes to show what a spread out release can do for you. WTF! EA releasing Titanfall 2 at the same time as CoD and BF. It deserved better.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Fine. I'm sure everyone will agree with this list. Mmm hmmm.

is this with Pokemon being 2 SKUs?


I would've had Smash higher but it's releasing in December instead of earlier as we thought.

then again, Brawl did over 3m in its release month in March, right?
So I'll put Smash above Spider man personally.

They're technically two different games, yeah.
yeah double checking.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
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Oct 25, 2017
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Carlsbad, CA
www.npd.com
That seems like a safe prediction! Do you think Pokemon is releasing too late to creep into the top 10 this year?
Late, sales split between two games, not the full featured RPG, no digital sales included.

is this with Pokemon being 2 SKUs?
They're technically two different games, yeah.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Heh, I was coming in this thread to ask Mat why no Pokémon. Forgot it was 2 SKUs. Yeah, that’ll probably hold it back.

Late, sales split between two games, not the full featured RPG, no digital sales included.



They're technically two different games, yeah.
oh wow, I’m surprised you think this’ll hold it back. Don’t see the Pokémon Go tie in/increased accessibility doing much?
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,862
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Carlsbad, CA
www.npd.com
oh wow, I’m surprised you think this’ll hold it back. Don’t see the Pokémon Go tie in/increased accessibility doing much?
I think this version will work at what it's supposed to do in growing the installed base with kids/family. But right now, Switch owners lean older and more core. I think both do very well, but making the top 10 in 2018 isn't like a normal year.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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I think this version will work at what it's supposed to do in growing the installed base with kids/family. But right now, Switch owners lean older and more core. I think both do very well, but making the top 10 in 2018 isn't like a normal year.
Will the 100$ bundles (game + accessory) be counted in the overall revenue figure ?
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,779
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I think this version will work at what it's supposed to do in growing the installed base with kids/family. But right now, Switch owners lean older and more core. I think both do very well, but making the top 10 in 2018 isn't like a normal year.
Yeah that makes sense. I’m definitely curious to see how the whole situation with Let’s Go plays out.

And Smash is after Black Friday and too late I’m guessing?
 
Nov 2, 2017
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Meh, I left BLO PS4 PC Digital in there when I shouldn't have. Updated:

Don't you think Smash Ultimate will make into TOP 10? I know it's december only and digital revenue won't count, but the game is still gonna be insane in term of sales, and both Brawl and Smash 4 charted really high in 2008 and 2014.

Dec 7th is real late in the year to make it onto an annual top 10. Who knows. Maybe it gets there, but in 2018 it'd take something miraculous imo.
Nah man, a "miracle" seem something almost impossible, i can assure you that Smash has a good chance. Smash in USA is the Nintendo IP with the biggest launch, Nintendo marketing for the game is already big and this fall will be crazy, and a lot of series had a record launch on Switch. It will be an insane launch month, one of the best in general and probabily the best for an exclusive in term of units sales, and revenue.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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For something like the Switch, once Smash and Pokemon are out, that top 10 ain't budging much for a year lol.

Mat,
curious what are the chances if any, that we get top 20s for the individual Consoles as well?
I think it'd be pretty interesting.

10-20 would be more interesting for that system in particular.
only notable thing is Skyrim being #10 ahead of Pokken and Arms still.
 
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Oct 27, 2017
12,525
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Yet another example that Game Pass as a model seems to work. Even better than expected, maybe. I hope this will make other publishers to follow suit and publish their new games on Game Pass. It's a wonderful service.
It gives MS good "ammunition" to convince other publishers yeah.
 
Oct 27, 2017
797
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Texas
Dec 7th is real late in the year to make it onto an annual top 10. Who knows. Maybe it gets there, but in 2018 it'd take something miraculous imo.
If a 3D Mario game on a smaller install base can do the insane numbers it did in such a short time, Smash definitely has a shot, even with the later launch.
 
Oct 28, 2017
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If a 3D Mario game on a smaller install base can do the insane numbers it did in such a short time, Smash definitely has a shot, even with the later launch.
This year there is more competition too. Gow and Spidey will sell more than Horizon for example ( i think ). BF V , Cod , RDR , Fallout 76 ... Lot of big titles in 2018. Anyway Smash will be huge.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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Meh, I left BLOPS4 PC Digital in there when I shouldn't have. Updated:

I think fallout 76 is a bit too low. Granted it has only 2 months but that game just seems to have all the ingredients of doing great. Fallout 4 was #3 full year in 2015. 7 just seems kinda low

Smash and the Pokémon games are wildcards. Who knows how they end up doing
 
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Apr 1, 2018
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Spidey Month Has A lot of competitions Not Like GOD Month.....


So won't be Easy for the game to TOP GOD sell in One Month but in the long run maybe.



But on The Topic...

I wasn't Expect to See SOD2 at number 1 For may at all
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,862
0
Carlsbad, CA
www.npd.com
I remain one of the most bullish analysts in the industry on Switch, Pokemon and Smash.

Leaving them off the top 10 list in a year with games like we have this year isn't downplaying any of them. Especially since we don't have digital in the tracking for Nintendo, Pokemon having two games (which always impacts its rankings) and the Dec 7 release for Smash. All will be very successful for a very long time.