Discussion in 'Sales Threads' started by ZhugeEX, Nov 16, 2017.
Let's see if Holiday/deep price cuts/XBOX save the year for Microsoft.
And yeah that price difference is staggering. Wii was like an permanent, insane Black Friday deal compared to the other two.
199 for the PS4 reminds me of 99 for the PS2.
PS2 seemed to sell forever at the price.
Did 360 ever hit 199?
Thanks as usual Abdiel for those informative tidbits.
I think that, if only due to the BF deals effect, the Unit sold rankings are going to be PS4 (by a lot) > XB1 > Switch.
Now the big question is, for NPD (as it has rankings on Revenue, not units now), will the PS4 slim have sold enough to overcome a $300 price differential with the XB1X launch and its likely 400-500k sales in the US in November?
For now, as far as units go, I will go (November) with:
PS4: 1.6m (incl 150k Pro)
XB1: 1.2m (incl 450k 1X)
Note: with that specific prediction, the NPD ranking would be XB1 (by a hair) > PS4 > Switch
The exact numbers I couldn't begin to guess though.
First of all the Switch outsold the competition during the previous months even before Mario came out. Nintendo made sure everyone is aware of that with their monthly PR. It would be only logical to think this trend would continue during November and December, the family period where Nintendo is usually even more in beast mode.
In the US, the success of the Switch is on par so far with the Wii. Nintendo raised their sales target for the fiscal year by 4 million. It's the union of the two markets at the same time (home console and handheld). This is the first holidays for the Switch which has already Mario, Mario Kart and Zelda, when the competition is heading into its fifth Christmas.
In general, it's hard to not see how the Switch has become the hot topic, here and anywhere else. You known, best gadget of 2017 and all. My little cousin wants one, your little cousin wants one. Maybe it's just the Nintendo fans being particulary active and vocal but it's hard to remember another console being followed by the same craze before.
As the PS4 sales are reaching their peak, I think the real question from now is "Why would anyone expect Switch to not win ?". For November, the answer looks to be a limited 199$ PS4, but in my opinion the Switch remains the favorite for December unless maybe Sony repeat the same strategy (of course I don't think they care much about being first as long as they reach their target).
The strength of PS4 remains in its unmatched library of games, but once again Sony is fighting this season without any big exclusive to help (though it's nice to hear Horizon is kinda playing this role according to some reports). Even Microsoft has a huge card in hands with PUBG. That Star Wars Battlefront II deal is also going to stink, because I doubt the release of the movie will cast any magic spell on those unwanted Star Wars bundles but we will see.
The thing is though, the Switch, from a demographic and usage basis, is nothing like the Wii. It’s much more a core gamer console than anything Nintendo has done since maybe NGC?
And because it’s a hybrid, multi console ownership per household could be a thing, making upside potential bigger than the Wii.
The obsession with holiday released exclusives is really weird, people will pick up a console based on what has released on it not what is releasing this holiday.
I was looking at WII sales in 2007 :
It was something else.
Thanks Abdiel for your input. It sounds like both the PS4 and XB1S sold really well while the PS4 sold at a quicker rate. I think the 4 day head start the PS4 had may decide between beating the XB1 or not.
The Switch is clearly more hardcore and is getting more non casual third party games than the Wii. Every Nintendo fan or gamer should be happy for that because the Wii got killed for have an over abundance of casual titles and not enough “core” titles.
But it does depend on if Pokemon is next year or not.
Heck, Nintendo had such big supply problems the Wii sold (in the US) only 1m unit across November and December 2006, at its launch Window.
If the Switch sells less than 400k (let alone closer to 300k, or worse if under) in January while being plentiful in stock, you'll know it's not on the same trajectory imo.
In my opinion, if the Switch sells less than 3m this Holiday while not being sold out everywhere, you'll also know it's nowhere near the same path imo.
Everybody know by now about Wii blue ocean strategy toward those that never played (or very casually) videogames by lowering the input barrier.
I believe that one of the Switch core audience is jaded/lapsed gamers who cooled down from the hobby due to busy life schedule (sort of Switch's Blue Ocean IMO).
There is a bunch of 30/40/50 years old with disposable income but very little time to consume the videogames they purchase (if they still buy them!).
All these old timers know already (because they were active gamers back in the days) how frantic Doom action is, how exhilarating a multiplayer session of Bomberman is, how witty and humurous LucasArts point & click adventure are, what a cult game Street Fighter 2 is.
I do believe that Nintendo actively talked with third-party publishers about their strategy with Switch.
To summarize if Wii conveniece was to allow to play game to people lesser expert with traditional control inputs, Switch conveniece is to allow people to play anywhere, anytime which bring a different set of audience (at least in the beginning).
The same 30/40/50 years old are one of the main target of NES Classic and SNES Classic which actively act as marketing tools (while at the same time Nintendo is profiting from them).
But sales are sales, and stats are stats.
I’m guessing Monday we’ll find out the Black Friday “winners”?
Add into that of the Wii collapsed in late 2010-2011 and how avoidable that should be for the Switch and I don't see why one should be so quick to write the latter off.
It'll certainly be competitive IMO.
Switch was plenty stock in October. I think that is the more accurate view of what leveled demand is.
I don't expect Switch to outpace the Wii next year (launch aligned) until Pokemon hits.
Switch may still outpace the Wii this Holiday due to better stock but the demand levels are not similar and it will fall behind it in 2018.
That said Pokemon will be huge and I think Switch has a better shot of sustained sales than we saw with the Wii
If he says "X is X" based on the stats, then X is indeed X.
It couldn't be easier than that.
Switch, by the grace of longevity itself, will outsell the Wii by the time Switch 2 arrives. The signs are there. And that's all that matters.
To clarify I'm talking about shipment SW/HW data worldwide.
I think for November, either PS4 (because of the $199 deals) or XB1 (because of the XBX launch adding to its numbers) will end up on top, with Switch third, but still selling very, very well.
What does Mat gain from trying to making the switch "look like it's doing better than it really is'?
Mat has facts and he's giving us numbers. Nothing he's saying is wrong and he even said this really isn't like the Wii simply because it seems to be targeting core users and not the audience the Wii did.
I like it was pointed out that the Wii tapered off big time towards the latter half of its life and it never sold like it honestly should have.
The Wii definitely had the larger demand than the Switch and the Switch will eventually fall behind the Wii in sales, but the key thing is can the Switch manage a steady pace over a longer period of time than the Wii? By year 5 of the Switch it could be selling more per month than the Wii did in year 5 because there won’t be this large casual crowd that jumps ship like they did for the Wii.
Question, if Nintendo decides to make the switch an iOS like platform with a single library, no clean breaks, how will the unit sales be counted?
Same question for Xbox.
Current thinking on this contingency would be to keep current platform designations until exclusive software exists for the new platform that cannot be played on the old.
So, for example, if the next version of a box is released but all software available would work on both the new and old platform, we’d roll all these sales together into the existing platform naming convention.
If, however, some games only worked on the new box, it would be classified as a new platform with software sales allocated to the platform the title is marketed under.
But who knows, other weird things may occur that would blow up this thinking.