NPD October 2017: Shadow of War #1 SW, Nintendo Switch #1 HW

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Oct 26, 2017
1,616
So the big takeaway is that Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft can all have consoles out and be really successful. I remember the days when people thought it an impossibility to have more than 2 successful consoles during the same time period.
In the current year XBO is notably down compared to previous years in US (until October at least).
Let's see if Holiday/deep price cuts/XBOX save the year for Microsoft.
 
Here in Portugal price was not 600.

Wii - 249.99€
Xbox 360 - 419.99€
Playstation 3 - 599.99€ (60gb model)

But yeah total different market back then, thing is Switch will have much better longevity than Wii ever did, it's not like it'll stop selling anytime soon.
I’m confused, isn’t that six hundred euros for 60gb PS3? I was referring to PS3.

And yeah that price difference is staggering. Wii was like an permanent, insane Black Friday deal compared to the other two.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,610
Yeah, they have to remember Wii was $250 with a game from the start and the competition was more expensive. Next year we will see.
True. Wii was a bit cheaper. If you consider inflation though the price is practically same ($249 in 2007 is $296 today). Also especially X360 had a lot of deals during holiday months so Wii wasn't that much cheaper than competition. Not to mention handheld sector was still alive and competing for same dollars with even cheaper prices.

It doesn’t need to be the new Wii to outsell it long term (not saying it will though)

Because that’s where this whole Wii debate comes from right? Kimishima pondering the the possibility of it outdoing the Wii as well as a couple of analysts.

Also Wii WAS a deal compared to competition. 250 again friggin 600 and whatever Xbox 360 was at the time. It really needed no discounts because it was already cheap as fuck.
Oh. I don't disagree that in long term it could outsell Wii (pretty early to tell though). It 's just that some think that without supply issues Switch would pull prime Wii like holiday months (Even during those crazy months Wii still had supply issues). Personally I really don't believe it has anywhere near the same kind of demand as early Wii (nothing ever will probably have).
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,801
Thanks as usual Abdiel for those informative tidbits.

I think that, if only due to the BF deals effect, the Unit sold rankings are going to be PS4 (by a lot) > XB1 > Switch.

Now the big question is, for NPD (as it has rankings on Revenue, not units now), will the PS4 slim have sold enough to overcome a $300 price differential with the XB1X launch and its likely 400-500k sales in the US in November?


For now, as far as units go, I will go (November) with:

PS4: 1.6m (incl 150k Pro)
XB1: 1.2m (incl 450k 1X)
Switch: 800k

Note: with that specific prediction, the NPD ranking would be XB1 (by a hair) > PS4 > Switch
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,086
Thanks as usual Abdiel for those informative tidbits.

I think that, if only due to the BF deals effect, the Unit sold rankings are going to be PS4 (by a lot) > XB1 > Switch.

Now the big question is, for NPD (as it has rankings on Revenue, not units now), will the PS4 slim have sold enough to overcome a $300 price differential with the XB1X launch and its likely 400-500k sales in the US in November?


For now, as far as units go, I will go (November) with:

PS4: 1.6m (incl 150k Pro)
XB1: 1.2m (incl 450k 1X)
Switch: 800k

Note: with that specific prediction, the NPD ranking would be XB1 (by a hair) > PS4 > Switch
I think they will all do a million plus.

The exact numbers I couldn't begin to guess though.
 
Oct 27, 2017
734
Why would anyone expect Switch to win without sales?
Anyone who is not following closely the reports here and doesn't know how absurdly good did the 199$ PS4 could think the Switch is the best selling console for an unlimited amount of reasons.

First of all the Switch outsold the competition during the previous months even before Mario came out. Nintendo made sure everyone is aware of that with their monthly PR. It would be only logical to think this trend would continue during November and December, the family period where Nintendo is usually even more in beast mode.

In the US, the success of the Switch is on par so far with the Wii. Nintendo raised their sales target for the fiscal year by 4 million. It's the union of the two markets at the same time (home console and handheld). This is the first holidays for the Switch which has already Mario, Mario Kart and Zelda, when the competition is heading into its fifth Christmas.

In general, it's hard to not see how the Switch has become the hot topic, here and anywhere else. You known, best gadget of 2017 and all. My little cousin wants one, your little cousin wants one. Maybe it's just the Nintendo fans being particulary active and vocal but it's hard to remember another console being followed by the same craze before.

As the PS4 sales are reaching their peak, I think the real question from now is "Why would anyone expect Switch to not win ?". For November, the answer looks to be a limited 199$ PS4, but in my opinion the Switch remains the favorite for December unless maybe Sony repeat the same strategy (of course I don't think they care much about being first as long as they reach their target).

The strength of PS4 remains in its unmatched library of games, but once again Sony is fighting this season without any big exclusive to help (though it's nice to hear Horizon is kinda playing this role according to some reports). Even Microsoft has a huge card in hands with PUBG. That Star Wars Battlefront II deal is also going to stink, because I doubt the release of the movie will cast any magic spell on those unwanted Star Wars bundles but we will see.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,650
It's kind of inevitable, especially if Switch isn't first. We've had "Switch wins NPD" threads, so when the opposite pops up, I'm expecting a mess.
Agreed. I'll be watching from the sidelines.

I think they will all do a million plus.

The exact numbers I couldn't begin to guess though.
Yep, 1M+ for all three. Best November this gen by a mile. Hype!
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,873
Carlsbad, CA
Personally I really don't believe it has anywhere near the same kind of demand as early Wii (nothing ever will probably have).
Switch is on pace to exceed Wii by 20%+ over the first 10 months of sales.

The thing is though, the Switch, from a demographic and usage basis, is nothing like the Wii. It’s much more a core gamer console than anything Nintendo has done since maybe NGC?

And because it’s a hybrid, multi console ownership per household could be a thing, making upside potential bigger than the Wii.
 
Nov 2, 2017
8,154
The obsession with holiday released exclusives is really weird, people will pick up a console based on what has released on it not what is releasing this holiday.
 
Oct 24, 2017
2,280
The thing is though, the Switch, from a demographic and usage basis, is nothing like the Wii. It’s much more a core gamer console than anything Nintendo has done since maybe NGC?

.
Right. I'd argue (and IMO software sales already bear this out) that overall Switch is built on a much more solid foundation than Wii in terms of sustaining sales and attracting 3rd parties.
 
Oct 26, 2017
2,058
Right. I'd argue (and IMO software sales already bear this out) that overall Switch is built on a much more solid foundation than Wii in terms of sustaining sales and attracting 3rd parties.
switch is more of a home console version of the nds than a wii imo(gimmicky but useful console that sell well with a really active userbase)
 
Oct 29, 2017
7,977
Switch is on pace to exceed Wii by 20%+ over the first 10 months of sales.

The thing is though, the Switch, from a demographic and usage basis, is nothing like the Wii. It’s much more a core gamer console than anything Nintendo has done since maybe NGC?

And because it’s a hybrid, multi console ownership per household could be a thing, making upside potential bigger than the Wii.
That is shocking to me. The Wii was next to impossible to find its first year. I remember Toys R Us holding back supply until Sunday morning and every Sunday there would be a line deep of people to get one. The same thing happened at Best Buy when they would advertise stock. Nothing like that has happened with the Switch (or at least not in my area nor have I read about people lining up for one outside of Japan). And Nintendo has apparently had supply constraints with the Switch since its release, and I don't recall that with the Wii; With the Wii it was just insanely high demand that outpaced the supply.
 
Oct 27, 2017
562
Thanks Abdiel for your input. It sounds like both the PS4 and XB1S sold really well while the PS4 sold at a quicker rate. I think the 4 day head start the PS4 had may decide between beating the XB1 or not.
 
Oct 27, 2017
21,398
Switch is on pace to exceed Wii by 20%+ over the first 10 months of sales.

The thing is though, the Switch, from a demographic and usage basis, is nothing like the Wii. It’s much more a core gamer console than anything Nintendo has done since maybe NGC?

And because it’s a hybrid, multi console ownership per household could be a thing, making upside potential bigger than the Wii.
The Switch is that far ahead? Damn. And I agree because I said it earlier that the Switch doesn’t have the same pull of demographics like the Wii did. Hell we may never see a system ever pull that “we don’t play video games” type of crowd ever again. Grandmas and grandpas could sit and play the Wii with no problem.

The Switch is clearly more hardcore and is getting more non casual third party games than the Wii. Every Nintendo fan or gamer should be happy for that because the Wii got killed for have an over abundance of casual titles and not enough “core” titles.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,183
Thanks as usual Abdiel for those informative tidbits.

I think that, if only due to the BF deals effect, the Unit sold rankings are going to be PS4 (by a lot) > XB1 > Switch.

Now the big question is, for NPD (as it has rankings on Revenue, not units now), will the PS4 slim have sold enough to overcome a $300 price differential with the XB1X launch and its likely 400-500k sales in the US in November?


For now, as far as units go, I will go (November) with:

PS4: 1.6m (incl 150k Pro)
XB1: 1.2m (incl 450k 1X)
Switch: 800k

Note: with that specific prediction, the NPD ranking would be XB1 (by a hair) > PS4 > Switch
I wonder how you come to the conclusion that the PS4 will sell twice (!) as much as the Switch. If I recall correctly some insiders said here that the Switch was selling better than other consoles up until PS4's price drop. I am sure PS4 was selling really well last week but it's not like the Switch suddenly stopped selling as well. Don't get me wrong PS4 will most likely "win" but let's not exaggerate.
 

v_iHuGi

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Oct 28, 2017
5,175
Switch is on pace to exceed Wii by 20%+ over the first 10 months of sales.

The thing is though, the Switch, from a demographic and usage basis, is nothing like the Wii. It’s much more a core gamer console than anything Nintendo has done since maybe NGC?

And because it’s a hybrid, multi console ownership per household could be a thing, making upside potential bigger than the Wii.
Pokemon + Switch next year = Wii Like numbers I'm betting on that.
 
Oct 25, 2017
435
Right. I'd argue (and IMO software sales already bear this out) that overall Switch is built on a much more solid foundation than Wii in terms of sustaining sales and attracting 3rd parties.
I agree with this. Although I'm still not sure if the Switch will reach 100m lifetime (depends on whether this is a true hybrid and no 3ds successor comes out imo), I don't think the Switch will burn like a supernova and then fall off a cliff like the Wii did. It will be a steadier stream that will safely carry them to switch 2 (or whatever it's called).
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,873
Carlsbad, CA
The Switch is that far ahead?
On pace... but that could change with Nov-Dec sales. We shall see.

Pokemon + Switch next year = Wii Like numbers I'm betting on that.
Yeah, if Pokemon comes next year I can easily see Switch outpacing Wii and taking 40+ share of the hardware market next year.

But it does depend on if Pokemon is next year or not.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,801
Switch is on pace to exceed Wii by 20%+ over the first 10 months of sales.

The thing is though, the Switch, from a demographic and usage basis, is nothing like the Wii. It’s much more a core gamer console than anything Nintendo has done since maybe NGC?

And because it’s a hybrid, multi console ownership per household could be a thing, making upside potential bigger than the Wii.
To be fair it isn't a great comparison due to the Wiis extreme shortages for a year +.

Heck, Nintendo had such big supply problems the Wii sold (in the US) only 1m unit across November and December 2006, at its launch Window.

If the Switch sells less than 400k (let alone closer to 300k, or worse if under) in January while being plentiful in stock, you'll know it's not on the same trajectory imo.

In my opinion, if the Switch sells less than 3m this Holiday while not being sold out everywhere, you'll also know it's nowhere near the same path imo.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,616
Switch is on pace to exceed Wii by 20%+ over the first 10 months of sales.

The thing is though, the Switch, from a demographic and usage basis, is nothing like the Wii. It’s much more a core gamer console than anything Nintendo has done since maybe NGC?

And because it’s a hybrid, multi console ownership per household could be a thing, making upside potential bigger than the Wii.
I think how Switch was conceptualized is similar to Wii (and DS) however, in a twist, it's going into the opposite direction.
Everybody know by now about Wii blue ocean strategy toward those that never played (or very casually) videogames by lowering the input barrier.
I believe that one of the Switch core audience is jaded/lapsed gamers who cooled down from the hobby due to busy life schedule (sort of Switch's Blue Ocean IMO).
There is a bunch of 30/40/50 years old with disposable income but very little time to consume the videogames they purchase (if they still buy them!).
All these old timers know already (because they were active gamers back in the days) how frantic Doom action is, how exhilarating a multiplayer session of Bomberman is, how witty and humurous LucasArts point & click adventure are, what a cult game Street Fighter 2 is.
I do believe that Nintendo actively talked with third-party publishers about their strategy with Switch.

To summarize if Wii conveniece was to allow to play game to people lesser expert with traditional control inputs, Switch conveniece is to allow people to play anywhere, anytime which bring a different set of audience (at least in the beginning).

EDIT:
The same 30/40/50 years old are one of the main target of NES Classic and SNES Classic which actively act as marketing tools (while at the same time Nintendo is profiting from them).
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,873
Carlsbad, CA
To be fair it isn't a great comparison due to the Wiis extreme shortages for a year +
Launch year sales are almost always supply constrained. We don’t know what could have sold for Wii or Switch in the launch period because both are supply constrained.

But sales are sales, and stats are stats.

To summarize if Wii conveniece was to allow to play game to people lesser expert with traditional control inputs, Switch conveniece is to allow people to play anywhere, anytime which bring a different set of audience (at least in the beginning).
Interesting way of looking at it!
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,095
To be fair it isn't a great comparison due to the Wiis extreme shortages for a year +.

Heck, Nintendo had such big supply problems the Wii sold (in the US) only 1m unit across November and December 2006, at its launch Window.

If the Switch sells less than 400k (let alone closer to 300k, or worse if under) in January while being plentiful in stock, you'll know it's not on the same trajectory imo.

In my opinion, if the Switch sells less than 3m this Holiday while not being sold out everywhere, you'll also know it's nowhere near the same path imo.
It's only 9 months old even once the year ends, it is way too early to be drawing up conclusions. As already discussed above, even if the Switch falls behind the Wii 2018 that can be made up quite easily if Pokémon is great and comes out at the end of the year, as well as potential multi-units-per-household that the Wii did not have, and the two go hand-in-hand quite well.

Add into that of the Wii collapsed in late 2010-2011 and how avoidable that should be for the Switch and I don't see why one should be so quick to write the latter off.

It'll certainly be competitive IMO.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
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Oct 25, 2017
6,115
Switch was plenty stock in October. I think that is the more accurate view of what leveled demand is.

I don't expect Switch to outpace the Wii next year (launch aligned) until Pokemon hits.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,847
Switch was plenty stock in October. I think that is the more accurate view of what leveled demand is.

I don't expect Switch to outpace the Wii next year (launch aligned) until Pokemon hits.
It was interesting to me, I think Mat pointed it out, that the Switch is appealing to a family audience more so than the other consoles. But to me it also seems like it's not necessarily the same audience that the Wii exploded to. I wonder what the reach of the Nintendo + this family audience will end up being long term.
 

Imad issa

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Nov 8, 2017
576
User has been warned for console wars rhetoric (again)
Switch is on pace to exceed Wii by 20%+ over the first 10 months of sales.

The thing is though, the Switch, from a demographic and usage basis, is nothing like the Wii. It’s much more a core gamer console than anything Nintendo has done since maybe NGC?

And because it’s a hybrid, multi console ownership per household could be a thing, making upside potential bigger than the Wii.
You are really trying to make switch look like its doing better then it really is. You know the only reason switch is near wii is the holiday launch was severely supply limited to the point that you can say that wii could have easily did the same numbers, on regular months. switch is going through it's first post holiday launch with good supply so far, so obviously thats why its close, but after wii get's it first holiday, and regular months the gap will be huge in favor of the wii, all you have to is look at monthly sales for a fair comparison, and its easy to see how much better wii is selling.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,115
It was interesting to me, I think Mat pointed it out, that the Switch is appealing to a family audience more so than the other consoles. But to me it also seems like it's not necessarily the same audience that the Wii exploded to. I wonder what the reach of the Nintendo + this family audience will end up being long term.
Yep. Switch is appealing to family's more than say an Xbox and a PlayStation but it still isn't anything like the Wii was.

Switch may still outpace the Wii this Holiday due to better stock but the demand levels are not similar and it will fall behind it in 2018.

That said Pokemon will be huge and I think Switch has a better shot of sustained sales than we saw with the Wii
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,095
You are really trying to make switch look like its doing better then it really is. You know the only reason switch is near wii is the holiday launch was severely supply limited to the point that you can say that wii could have easily did the same numbers, on regular months. switch is going through it's first post holiday launch with good supply so far, so obviously thats why its close, but after wii get's it first holiday, and regular months the gap will be huge in favor of the wii, all you have to is look at monthly sales for a fair comparison, and its easy to see how much better wii is selling.
Come on he has the undeniable facts and figures that we don't have access to and you're saying he's the dubious one trying to spin things?

If he says "X is X" based on the stats, then X is indeed X.

It couldn't be easier than that.
 

Melkr_

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Oct 25, 2017
1,058
Switch, by the grace of longevity itself, will outsell the Wii by the time Switch 2 arrives. The signs are there. And that's all that matters.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,616
The Switch is that far ahead? Damn. And I agree because I said it earlier that the Switch doesn’t have the same pull of demographics like the Wii did. Hell we may never see a system ever pull that “we don’t play video games” type of crowd ever again. Grandmas and grandpas could sit and play the Wii with no problem.
Keep in mind that Wii has the second best tie ratio among Nintendo consoles (only behind GCN which overall sold about 1/5 of the software sold on Wii).

EDIT:
To clarify I'm talking about shipment SW/HW data worldwide.
 
Last edited:
Oct 28, 2017
1,879
Anyone who is not following closely the reports here and doesn't know how absurdly good did the 199$ PS4 could think the Switch is the best selling console for an unlimited amount of reasons.

First of all the Switch outsold the competition during the previous months even before Mario came out. Nintendo made sure everyone is aware of that with their monthly PR. It would be only logical to think this trend would continue during November and December, the family period where Nintendo is usually even more in beast mode.

In the US, the success of the Switch is on par so far with the Wii. Nintendo raised their sales target for the fiscal year by 4 million. It's the union of the two markets at the same time (home console and handheld). This is the first holidays for the Switch which has already Mario, Mario Kart and Zelda, when the competition is heading into its fifth Christmas.

In general, it's hard to not see how the Switch has become the hot topic, here and anywhere else. You known, best gadget of 2017 and all. My little cousin wants one, your little cousin wants one. Maybe it's just the Nintendo fans being particulary active and vocal but it's hard to remember another console being followed by the same craze before.

As the PS4 sales are reaching their peak, I think the real question from now is "Why would anyone expect Switch to not win ?". For November, the answer looks to be a limited 199$ PS4, but in my opinion the Switch remains the favorite for December unless maybe Sony repeat the same strategy (of course I don't think they care much about being first as long as they reach their target).

The strength of PS4 remains in its unmatched library of games, but once again Sony is fighting this season without any big exclusive to help (though it's nice to hear Horizon is kinda playing this role according to some reports). Even Microsoft has a huge card in hands with PUBG. That Star Wars Battlefront II deal is also going to stink, because I doubt the release of the movie will cast any magic spell on those unwanted Star Wars bundles but we will see.
Very good post.

I think for November, either PS4 (because of the $199 deals) or XB1 (because of the XBX launch adding to its numbers) will end up on top, with Switch third, but still selling very, very well.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,572
What does Mat gain from trying to making the switch "look like it's doing better than it really is'?

Mat has facts and he's giving us numbers. Nothing he's saying is wrong and he even said this really isn't like the Wii simply because it seems to be targeting core users and not the audience the Wii did.
 
Oct 27, 2017
21,398
I like it was pointed out that the Wii tapered off big time towards the latter half of its life and it never sold like it honestly should have.

The Wii definitely had the larger demand than the Switch and the Switch will eventually fall behind the Wii in sales, but the key thing is can the Switch manage a steady pace over a longer period of time than the Wii? By year 5 of the Switch it could be selling more per month than the Wii did in year 5 because there won’t be this large casual crowd that jumps ship like they did for the Wii.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,873
Carlsbad, CA
Question, if Nintendo decides to make the switch an iOS like platform with a single library, no clean breaks, how will the unit sales be counted?

Same question for Xbox.
Great question.

Current thinking on this contingency would be to keep current platform designations until exclusive software exists for the new platform that cannot be played on the old.

So, for example, if the next version of a box is released but all software available would work on both the new and old platform, we’d roll all these sales together into the existing platform naming convention.

If, however, some games only worked on the new box, it would be classified as a new platform with software sales allocated to the platform the title is marketed under.

But who knows, other weird things may occur that would blow up this thinking.

You are really trying to make switch look like its doing better then it really is. You know the only reason switch is near wii is the holiday launch was severely supply limited to the point that you can say that wii could have easily did the same numbers, on regular months. switch is going through it's first post holiday launch with good supply so far, so obviously thats why its close, but after wii get's it first holiday, and regular months the gap will be huge in favor of the wii, all you have to is look at monthly sales for a fair comparison, and its easy to see how much better wii is selling.
K.
 

Imad issa

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Nov 8, 2017
576
Come on he has the undeniable facts and figures that we don't have access to and you're saying he's the dubious one trying to spin things?

If he says "X is X" based on the stats, then X is indeed X.

It couldn't be easier than that.
We have the same figures, and facts. What he say's is true, but it's akin to comparing 360 vs wii 2006 holiday, and saying 360 is beating wii int the same time frame for the first 5 months, when reality is, it was only because of stock issues.
 
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