Why would anyone expect Switch to win without sales?
Anyone who is not following closely the reports here and doesn't know how absurdly good did the 199$ PS4 could think the Switch is the best selling console for an unlimited amount of reasons.
First of all the Switch outsold the competition during the previous months even before Mario came out. Nintendo made sure everyone is aware of that with their monthly PR. It would be only logical to think this trend would continue during November and December, the family period where Nintendo is usually even more in beast mode.
In the US, the success of the Switch is on par so far with the Wii. Nintendo raised their sales target for the fiscal year by 4 million. It's the union of the two markets at the same time (home console and handheld). This is the first holidays for the Switch which has already Mario, Mario Kart and Zelda, when the competition is heading into its fifth Christmas.
In general, it's hard to not see how the Switch has become
the hot topic, here and anywhere else. You known, best gadget of 2017 and all. My little cousin wants one, your little cousin wants one. Maybe it's just the Nintendo fans being particulary active and vocal but it's hard to remember another console being followed by the same craze before.
As the PS4 sales are reaching their peak, I think the real question from now is "Why would anyone expect Switch to not win ?". For November, the answer looks to be a limited 199$ PS4, but in my opinion the Switch remains the favorite for December unless maybe Sony repeat the same strategy (of course I don't think they care much about
being first as long as they reach their target).
The strength of PS4 remains in its unmatched library of games, but once again Sony is fighting this season without any big exclusive to help (though it's nice to hear Horizon is kinda playing this role according to some reports). Even Microsoft has a huge card in hands with PUBG. That Star Wars Battlefront II deal is also going to stink, because I doubt the release of the movie will cast any magic spell on those unwanted Star Wars bundles but we will see.