Not a big fan of Indie games, so Blow's comments don't mean a whole lot to me. All of the bigwigs seem excited about both.
PS5 and Xbox Series speculation launch thread |OT9| - For flops sake!
- Thread starter Mecha Meister
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You don't seem like you would lie lol 10-10.5 retail is fine by honestly at this point
Can you elaborate? Are they usually further out on this for every big dev? I thought the rumour was the Xbox dev kit wasn't ready until recently.
Yep. That has been my suspicion all along, regarding Lockhart.
Launch xbone was loud and hot because MS built a cooling solution to fit their APU and then overclocked the APU at the last minute.
Latest PRO revision received a small adjustment to the fan curve to make it just as quiet, and just as hot, as the one X. So if PRO is a bad design...
I don't want to give any illusions that I know any thing about who has what devkit but imho I would expect gear box to have one.
I know almost nothing. Don't listen to the Cat :).
Excitement for these new boxes sure is at a fever pitch eh ? the 9th OT in what, 18 months ?
I've long suspected Microsofts strategy this time around is to make damn sure they have the fastest box out there at any cost, it's why lockhart rumors have persisted for over a year too. If you make a 12 TF super box , it's probably going to cost 599.99 USD but since people still poke fun at sony's E3 2005 gaffe , you , as the platform owner , need to really SELL why it's worth so much and accept that the more general audience just isn't going to spend that kind of money on a video game console. So , having a different weaker box that plays all the same content at half the resolution for .. maybe half the price just makes sense (I'd wager 299.99 is where that will come in at IF it still makes it out near launch).
Sony, on the other hand , has Made a PS4 and a PS4 Pro that both aimed for the same goal - launch the best device they can build at the closest to mass market price possible. That number turned out to be 399.99. They don't need to build a "light" version out of the gate because they have a fantastic library of cheap PS4 software they can sell as well as likely just making a single super slim PS4 for 199.99 USD MSRP or lower. If those handful of interviews about PS5 over the last few months are anything to go by they aim to "transition people to next gen at a pace never seen before" and I don't think you can pull that off at a price higher than 399.99.
When it comes down to it I feel as though MS has accepted that they will have to charge at least 499.99 USD for a series X if not more and that figure likely includes eating component/manufacture costs for upwards of a year. They have sales figures for XB1X of course, they can see how many diehard fans they have and can likely presume a similar number will buy a series X within 12 months of it's launch. The wild card is how much they've banked on the cheaper consoles sales to subsidize losses from the big brother. That's not for us to worry about though , that's something MS has to figure out.
So I'm going to paint a picture of next christmas on the retail shelf -
599.99 USD Xbox Series X (12 TF) - no fully exclusive games available day 1 but every xbox one title runs even better here and ALL cross platform titles look better here by a decent margin.
399.99/499.99* USD Playstation 5 (9 TF) - 12+ game launch library , most next gen only stuff and atleast 6 games that are ONLY on PS5. Fully BC with PS4/pro games but patches both free/paid required to take full advantage of the console. PS4/5 cross gen games will probably work as follows - PS5 won't run on ps4 at all but PS4 games with PS5 ports will let users upgrade their accounts/copies. I'd expect ALL major first party sony games on PS4 (at least since 2016) to have free PS5 patches for more resolution/performance. *I think this will depend on hard drive size more than anything else*
299.99 USD Xbox Series S (4 TF) - everything that runs on series X will run on this but at half resolution , so 4k becomes 1440p , 1440p becomes 1080p and in some cases , 60 fps might become 30 fps (single player titles only). The specs will be deceiving , I'd wager this thing will be on par with a One X in real world performance.
249.99 USD Nintendo Switch - The same standard model as always, I don't think we'll get a half step upgrade (or more) until at least 2021. 50$ price drop is all I'd expect.
199.99 USD Playstation 4 super slim - A revised "as cheap as possible" version of a PS4 on par with the super slim ps3. Will still have a disc drive and all the features of the current model, just smaller and cheaper.
179.99 USD Nintendo Switch Lite - same as the current version but probably a small price drop.
- - -discontinued products- - -
299.99 USD (clearance) Xbox One X - no reason to keep selling this , the lockhart will replace it. Will probably get a decent price drop to just clear out any remaining inventory.
299.99 USD (clearance) Playstation 4 pro - I don't see a reason for this to continue existing with the PS5 around the corner , sony will want people to just buy that instead so I wouldn't be surprised at all if you start to see these sell out by next summer and just not get a restock. IF there are any left going into fall they may get a price drop but that could be on retailers , not sony.
149.99 USD (clearance) Xbox One S/AD - despite the mass market price I feel like MS will want to rip off this bandaid and get people playing on the new format. I just don't see them manufacturing new xbox one consoles by the time 2021 rolls around and price drops will be made to clear out inventory by March 31st of that year.
The only one up there I may have wrong I feel is whether microsoft kills off the XB1 that fast or not. Continuing to support that console with compatible software has been holding them and their games back for over a year now (take a look at fallen order) and I just don't believe it's actually selling that well. I do; however, feel that it or at least some version of it will be part of the marketing for 2020 just so they can have an ad that says "jump into xbox , starting at 149.99 USD" with a 3 second shot of the 2 new consoles and an xbox one s hiding behind them.... and footage of halo captured from a series x.
I've long suspected Microsofts strategy this time around is to make damn sure they have the fastest box out there at any cost, it's why lockhart rumors have persisted for over a year too. If you make a 12 TF super box , it's probably going to cost 599.99 USD but since people still poke fun at sony's E3 2005 gaffe , you , as the platform owner , need to really SELL why it's worth so much and accept that the more general audience just isn't going to spend that kind of money on a video game console. So , having a different weaker box that plays all the same content at half the resolution for .. maybe half the price just makes sense (I'd wager 299.99 is where that will come in at IF it still makes it out near launch).
Sony, on the other hand , has Made a PS4 and a PS4 Pro that both aimed for the same goal - launch the best device they can build at the closest to mass market price possible. That number turned out to be 399.99. They don't need to build a "light" version out of the gate because they have a fantastic library of cheap PS4 software they can sell as well as likely just making a single super slim PS4 for 199.99 USD MSRP or lower. If those handful of interviews about PS5 over the last few months are anything to go by they aim to "transition people to next gen at a pace never seen before" and I don't think you can pull that off at a price higher than 399.99.
When it comes down to it I feel as though MS has accepted that they will have to charge at least 499.99 USD for a series X if not more and that figure likely includes eating component/manufacture costs for upwards of a year. They have sales figures for XB1X of course, they can see how many diehard fans they have and can likely presume a similar number will buy a series X within 12 months of it's launch. The wild card is how much they've banked on the cheaper consoles sales to subsidize losses from the big brother. That's not for us to worry about though , that's something MS has to figure out.
So I'm going to paint a picture of next christmas on the retail shelf -
599.99 USD Xbox Series X (12 TF) - no fully exclusive games available day 1 but every xbox one title runs even better here and ALL cross platform titles look better here by a decent margin.
399.99/499.99* USD Playstation 5 (9 TF) - 12+ game launch library , most next gen only stuff and atleast 6 games that are ONLY on PS5. Fully BC with PS4/pro games but patches both free/paid required to take full advantage of the console. PS4/5 cross gen games will probably work as follows - PS5 won't run on ps4 at all but PS4 games with PS5 ports will let users upgrade their accounts/copies. I'd expect ALL major first party sony games on PS4 (at least since 2016) to have free PS5 patches for more resolution/performance. *I think this will depend on hard drive size more than anything else*
299.99 USD Xbox Series S (4 TF) - everything that runs on series X will run on this but at half resolution , so 4k becomes 1440p , 1440p becomes 1080p and in some cases , 60 fps might become 30 fps (single player titles only). The specs will be deceiving , I'd wager this thing will be on par with a One X in real world performance.
249.99 USD Nintendo Switch - The same standard model as always, I don't think we'll get a half step upgrade (or more) until at least 2021. 50$ price drop is all I'd expect.
199.99 USD Playstation 4 super slim - A revised "as cheap as possible" version of a PS4 on par with the super slim ps3. Will still have a disc drive and all the features of the current model, just smaller and cheaper.
179.99 USD Nintendo Switch Lite - same as the current version but probably a small price drop.
- - -discontinued products- - -
299.99 USD (clearance) Xbox One X - no reason to keep selling this , the lockhart will replace it. Will probably get a decent price drop to just clear out any remaining inventory.
299.99 USD (clearance) Playstation 4 pro - I don't see a reason for this to continue existing with the PS5 around the corner , sony will want people to just buy that instead so I wouldn't be surprised at all if you start to see these sell out by next summer and just not get a restock. IF there are any left going into fall they may get a price drop but that could be on retailers , not sony.
149.99 USD (clearance) Xbox One S/AD - despite the mass market price I feel like MS will want to rip off this bandaid and get people playing on the new format. I just don't see them manufacturing new xbox one consoles by the time 2021 rolls around and price drops will be made to clear out inventory by March 31st of that year.
The only one up there I may have wrong I feel is whether microsoft kills off the XB1 that fast or not. Continuing to support that console with compatible software has been holding them and their games back for over a year now (take a look at fallen order) and I just don't believe it's actually selling that well. I do; however, feel that it or at least some version of it will be part of the marketing for 2020 just so they can have an ad that says "jump into xbox , starting at 149.99 USD" with a 3 second shot of the 2 new consoles and an xbox one s hiding behind them.... and footage of halo captured from a series x.
While i know hes also just a hated man, sometimes criticism can result in a positive like when he gave shit to sony and we got 8 gig of ram in the ps4
If Blow archives Twitch broadcasts, I feel like we could get proper context without all of this gibberish in the article.
So I have spent a lot of time discrediting Oberon, time to provide a counter argument.
Navi has made a lot of improvements not only bridging the gap between Nvidia and AMD tflops, but also in power efficiency. From what I undestand, Navi tflops are the same as Pascal tflops and only around 10% weaker than Turing tflops. MS's sweet spot for the 40 CU Polaris was 1172 mhz. It seems the clocks have gotten a massive boost with the sweet spot now being 1700 mhz.
With 1 year in the oven and some more arch improvements, a 10% performance increase in not out of the ordinary. So we can assume, the sweet spot would go up to 1.87 ghz. Or 110w for a 40 CU 9.5 tflops GPU. With N7p's 7% improvements, we can increase the clocks by another 7% of 1.87 ghz or exactly 2.09 ghz. lines up with OrisisBlack's 2.1 ghz leak from last year.
So now we have a 40 CU 2.1 ghz gpu consuming 110w. a 36 CU 2.0 ghz GPU should take 10% less power. That gets us a 100w GPU on 7np. Assuming ram, ssd, cpu take up another 50w, we are looking at a console with the same tdp as a Pro. Should NOT require any fancy cooling like vapor chamber or dual heatsinks on either side. they might save $10-20 dollars here. if they are saving $15-30 in a 15% smaller APU, we are looking at $25-50 in savings. I dont see how they get to $399 but they could be willing to take a loss to get there.
So we basically need N7p, 10% arch improvements without going to rdna 2.0, and we can have the 2.0 ghz be the sweet spot. And maybe a $449 console. You could argue that MS can take the same loss and launch at $449 as well to go for the kill, and I'd hope they do.
Lastly, if those N7p, 10% arch improvements are true, then MS can also target 2.0 ghz and get to 14 tflops with their 56 CUs without breaking the 200w limit.
Edit: Source for sweet spot.
Navi has made a lot of improvements not only bridging the gap between Nvidia and AMD tflops, but also in power efficiency. From what I undestand, Navi tflops are the same as Pascal tflops and only around 10% weaker than Turing tflops. MS's sweet spot for the 40 CU Polaris was 1172 mhz. It seems the clocks have gotten a massive boost with the sweet spot now being 1700 mhz.
With 1 year in the oven and some more arch improvements, a 10% performance increase in not out of the ordinary. So we can assume, the sweet spot would go up to 1.87 ghz. Or 110w for a 40 CU 9.5 tflops GPU. With N7p's 7% improvements, we can increase the clocks by another 7% of 1.87 ghz or exactly 2.09 ghz. lines up with OrisisBlack's 2.1 ghz leak from last year.
So now we have a 40 CU 2.1 ghz gpu consuming 110w. a 36 CU 2.0 ghz GPU should take 10% less power. That gets us a 100w GPU on 7np. Assuming ram, ssd, cpu take up another 50w, we are looking at a console with the same tdp as a Pro. Should NOT require any fancy cooling like vapor chamber or dual heatsinks on either side. they might save $10-20 dollars here. if they are saving $15-30 in a 15% smaller APU, we are looking at $25-50 in savings. I dont see how they get to $399 but they could be willing to take a loss to get there.
So we basically need N7p, 10% arch improvements without going to rdna 2.0, and we can have the 2.0 ghz be the sweet spot. And maybe a $449 console. You could argue that MS can take the same loss and launch at $449 as well to go for the kill, and I'd hope they do.
Lastly, if those N7p, 10% arch improvements are true, then MS can also target 2.0 ghz and get to 14 tflops with their 56 CUs without breaking the 200w limit.
Edit: Source for sweet spot.
Next Monday should be a good primer of things to come with the AMD CES Keynote
Good chance they do since Gearbox is helping on the Godfall publishing.
That even Indie developers have PS5 dev kits yet we have had no leaks from them is shocking!
Ok, my bad. I see we are on the same page here. I thought you'd repeat the inaccuracies written in the article. Richard is talking about maybe 512GB/s for PS5. But there are 2 problems.
Firstly It's 512GB/s tested for Oberon A0 so that would mean a higher theoretical bandwidth.
Secondly why didn't he talk about the last model of Oberon (B0) which has 530GB/s of achieved ? again it would be higher theoretical, about 550GB/s if we use the same ratio about the 448GB/s theoretical and what's achieved with Ariel, ~431GB/s.
Theoretical (probably of Ariel) | Ariel | Oberon A0 | Oberon B0
He forgot Oberon B0 and he talked about the achieved bandwidth in the case of PS5. As he put the XSX theoretical numbers (also taken from the github) he should have mentionned some theoretical numbers about Oberon B0. People are inevitably going to use that article to compare both consoles so I think he should have presented the facts in a fair way. Apples and Apples stuff.
Nah, just providing a counter argument.
if anything, the very last sentence in my post proves that you can easily have a 2.0 ghz 56 CU gpu if you are aiming for a 200w console and are willing to pay $25-50 extra on cooling.
Ms can do it, and so can sony.
Ok, my bad. I see we are on the same page here. I though you'd repeat the inaccuracies written in the article. Richard is talking about maybe 512GB/s for PS5. But there are 2 problems.
Firstly It's 512GB/s tested for Oberon A0 so that would mean a higher theoretical bandwidth.
Secondly why didn't he talk about the last model of Oberon (B0) which has 530GB/s of achieved ? again it would be higher theoretical, about 550GB/s if we use the same ratio about the 448GB/s theoretical and what's achieved with Ariel, ~431GB/s.
He forgot Oberon B0 and he talked about the achieved bandwidth in the case of PS5. As he put the XSX numbers (also taken from the github) he should have mentionned some theoretical numbers about Oberon B0. People are inevitably going to use that article to compare both consoles so I think he should have presented the facts in a fair way. Apples and Apples stuff.
isnt the oberon stuff hidden in arden folders. maybe he missed it?
iirc you were the only one here who found those numbers. even modiz and duke didnt see it at first.
I mean.. could be completely fake, but it is what Klee, Jason etc are saying..
It's related to user OsirisBlack from the old place..
Your getting worked for nothing. I'm not putting words in your mouth. Your previous posts paint a narrative for the different demographics who outside of this forum will be buying these new consoles.
You keep trying to connect xsx and ps5 as having different demographics for buyers. All I'm trying to say is when it's a new gen just like anything new people look more at the price than the specs.
We look for the specs as well as price. Enthusists to me are people who buy new tech period. And also people interested in that tech. Gaming is not niche anymore neither are their launches. They sell millions in 24hrs.
Your saying xsx is for the hardcore, but honestly in current landscape it's for people who want to make use of that power.
And is still poised as MS'S primary console. If not, if Lockhart is then they have a bigger issue on their hands.
But people will buy PlayStation on launch in droves. And it won't be people who only are interested in hardcore tech who will buy it.
There is a casual market, and things like psvr are a more enthusists peripheral. And that casual market are price conscious.
It's slowly starting to change. Don't think specs necessarily in this day in age put people intp hardcore crowd. Or make that product a hardcore product.
All I'm saying.
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Nah man. Tflops, bits, etc. They're all PR speaking points. They don't mean anything for games.
/s
I hate that rhetoric so much.
I hate that rhetoric so much.
What? They launched a year earlier and 100 dollars cheaper. Not a comparison at all. Also it was 36cu on the pro, once again proving my point Sony history points to large and slow not small and fast gpu
They'd be bang in the middle for power and price, how would that be a 'fuck up'?
Lockhart 300/350 > PS5 400/450 > XS 500/550
Yes this was a good video, thanks for sharing. And this was considering best case of moving to 7nm+ node. 505 mm2?
We are the Knights that say Klee.
lol. Happy New Year Kleegamefan and everyone here. In hours (for me) we can finally say new consoles are coming this year.
I am happy he is not getting involved in all of this, he would just end up repeating himself endlessly. He deserves some peace and rest lol!
People just love to hate these days.
I mean more than half the posts on here stem from confirmation bias. I will admit that I am also guilty of that to a degree. But not when it comes to the specs...I'm on wait and see mode but enjoying the speculation.
I still don't understand the possible rationale behind a 36 CU GPU at 2 Ghz. The cost to get it running at that speed reliably would seem to me to be greater than just going wider and slower. 2Ghz is going cause quite a few additional chips to end up in the recycle bin.
I know he got some stuff right back in the day but also wrong .
Either way it's 50\50.
I would love to hear Buildzoid's thoughts on the pros and cons these two paths. Power and thermals are particularly important in a 10-20 million a year console.
I just meant that this particular poster didn't have any ambiguity about their platform allegiance and chose to trust someone on their word on emotion alone. Most people try to control for their bias somewhat.
I'm sure AMD helped Sony do the requisite analysis of die per wafer at higher clock speeds vs. a different die size, and now that might amortize over the life of the process.
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