The US seems very divided over Russia, but I think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would unite politicians real quick. Both because it's vital economically, and because China is pretty much its arch nemesis.
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The US seems very divided over Russia, but I think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would unite politicians real quick. Both because it's vital economically, and because China is pretty much its arch nemesis.
Alright, fun discussion but not really related to Ukraine, so let's get back to the matter at hand:
Looks like more Crimean action ongoing
View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780596248191615227
Looks like more Crimean action ongoing
View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780596248191615227
No chance, TSMC alone makes me believe the US would put boots on the ground in Taiwan.
In theory it's nearly impossible to spread the US too thin, that's more or less the entire point of the country's military doctrine. They have the means to strike any location(s) in the world at any time with overwhelming force with little in the way to stop them.
Of course that's just the theory, but it's probably one these countries aren't willing to test without assurances that their own militaries can stand up to the task.
Bad idea, it should be both.
I hope Europe will not follow that "advice".
This is the right call.
If the reason why a country can't send more to Ukraine is due to the 2%, then send to Ukraine should be the higher priority
I love you guys!
Seriously though, it will be an interesting balancing act for Europe outside every country needs to transition to a low-impact war economy (where low-impact means your industry isn't under threat).
Thanks for eli5 to me :) I forgot that US has superior air power and I didn't know that China had that kind of problems invading Taiwan if US deploys a few carriers
Different opinions, you could read things like that air defense is nonsense in this thread,
and that European countries should send all of their weapons to Ukraine because Russia is busy there.
Europe doesn't need war economy, Europe just needs to spend maybe atleast a 6th of what it spend during covid times on military industry to support Ukraine and modernize its military.
I'm sure those numbers will never be reached, but atleast slowly military industry gets into the focus.
To send things to Ukraine this things have to be produced.
Just to note, war economy is not some set number within GDP but more of a policy. Factories should be fully running up and running at all shifts, older ones modernized, new ones built, and new logistic centers developed. The EU has two decades to catch up on some honestly worldview mistakes. The idea is less on cost but more on improving capacity when it comes to the idea of war economy.
Plus, it would be a good stimulant for the EU economy in general.
Keep in mind that a single US carrier group typically contains the following:
- Nuclear-powered carrier
- 2 x guided missile cruisers
- 2 x anti-air warships
- 2 x destroyers or frigates
- 64-130 F/A-18 or other fighters/plane
All of that is happening in many European states,
and that is because of long year contracts with the arms industry.
If Europe would now say we don't need to spend 2% on military and just buy weapons on the international market that will not happen anymore.
You can scratch off the "or frigates," RIP Oliver Hazard Perry class (I know it lives on in Turkey's and Australia's navies).
I wonder how long could that operate without resupply if they had to continuously attack though, I imagine, that they could just keep the distance and only attack Chinese ships/planes. The main issue for China is still loosing all western markets if they attack that is why they don't even fully support Russia.
Some people got tired of waiting for help from authorities and built a small "dam" to protect their homes
View: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1779983523119550826
And how do you think authorities responded on that?
Right. They started threaten residents of Orenburg with criminal proceedings ↓
«Этим должны заниматься профессионалы». Чиновники пригрозили жителям Оренбургской области уголовным делом за спасение своих домов от наводнения - Русская служба The Moscow Times
Самостоятельную защиту жителями своих домов в Оренбургской области от наводнения не оценили местные власти и Госдума.www.moscowtimes.ru
"How dare you erect critical, life-saving infrastructure without approving all appropriate bribe and embezzlement quotas with appropriate authorities and agencies? This free-spirited voluntarism is undermining the traditional foundations of Russian society!"
And a bunch of nuclear powered nuclear carrying submarines scootin' about unbeknownst
It begins. Supposedly Saturday is the vote. Depending on its results and Schumer, could be done by the beginning of next week.
View: https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1780621034829279372?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1780621034829279372%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
View: https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1780621034829279372?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1780621034829279372%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
The last bullet is a big one. That is how Ukraine gets Bradley's, M113s, ATACMs, etc... Hopefully it is a large number (Appears to be around 10 Billion, unless there are some high value line items left out of that brief).
Some details on the Ukraine funding part.
Since Taiwan is an island, they do not have the kind of land corridor for weapon deliveries that Ukraine has with Poland.
In order to support Taiwan, the US Navy would likely have to get directly involved.
JFC, I didn't realize that a carrier had that much. Having that many fighters planes is insane
I need to find the text, but some reports the remaining long range ATACMS are literally required to be sent to Ukraine. That would be hundreds of them, but I'm sure the timing would not be immediate, but more as their replacement allows transfers. Still, need to see that text.
Edit: While they may have significant stocks there, I'd expect the DoD to start moving air defense missiles and shells to Poland shortly, even before the full passage (probably once the House green lights it, they'll get ready for deliveries).
One reason the U.S. is the power it is comes from its logistics capabilities, so Ukraine should be able to be quickly flush with whatever is ready to go. Hopefully this passes and by May we hear of a large turn around for the Ukrainians.
Edit: While they may have significant stocks there, I'd expect the DoD to start moving air defense missiles and shells to Poland shortly, even before the full passage (probably once the House green lights it, they'll get ready for deliveries).
One reason the U.S. is the power it is comes from its logistics capabilities, so Ukraine should be able to be quickly flush with whatever is ready to go. Hopefully this passes and by May we hear of a large turn around for the Ukrainians.
Here's hoping it makes it through. Glaringly obvious at this point that Ukraine is being starved for equipment they need to defend themselves and China/NK have no qualms about supplying Russia with whatever they need (at a highly marked up price, I'm sure).
Iran and NK are. China not so much since they need the EU to remain semi-friendly, and latest export data showed a noticeable decline in ALL economic activity to Russia. Chinese banks continue to get spooked as well, even refusing to deal Yuan with the Russians.
Is it the full package? Biden already said no to standalone bills. Did Johnson get assurances to get Dem votes for recall? I wonder if republicans were going to send over the discharge bill
What do you mean required. That the bill specifically says atacm must be sent?
There's two more bills for a total of 4. If all pass, I don't think Biden would care as that is semantics at that point. And honestly, he may still go ahead with Israel/Ukraine if the other two by chance failed. But no Ukraine is a must pass.
Supposedly a good portion of the remaining stocks are required to be sent. When I have time I'll see if I can find the full text as I'd expect caveats, but that is the rumor.
Right, Iran too, slipped brain (which is kinda bad that it slipped given that Iran's help is the source of a good chunk of Russia's weapons of terror).
China's definitely helping stuff get through to Russia. Granted they have a bit less riding on this conflict but it seems pretty clear they do see it as a chance to make Russia rather beholden to them with relatively little cost.
China has only been providing soft support (dual-use items, satellite imagery, supplies) but no physical military hardware. Big differences vs Iran and NK.
Ukraine has requested emergency meetings with NATO
View: https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1780649969407414607?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
View: https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1780649969407414607?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
I thought people were skeptical because Johnson was gonna split the bills, so Israel goes through, but then Ukraine would die due to more delaying tactics from Johnson?
That was never the case since enough Democrats would vote for Ukraine; it was poison pill amendments that were the concern I believe, but we'll see if that occurs or not.
Radar Cross Section wise, easily spottable aircraft flies into giant and expensive radar dish.
View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780633814202495067
View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780633814202495067
At this point I don't really care if they call it a loan to make themselves feel better, I think everyone wink wink knows it's not going to be paid back
For anyone who wishes to read it:
long range ATACMS full wording (as expected wording has some caveats):
SEC. 505. (a) TRANSFER OF LONG-RANGE ATACMS REQUIRED.—As soon as practicable after the date of enactment of this Act, the President shall transfer long range Army Tactical Missile Systems to the Government of Ukraine to assist the Government of Ukraine in defending itself and achieving victory against the Russian Federation. (b) NOTIFICATION.—If the President determines that executing the transfer of long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems to the Government of Ukraine pursuant to sub section (a) would be detrimental to the national security interests of the United States, the President may withhold such transfer and shall notify the congressional defense committees, the Committees on Appropriations and Foreign Relations of the Senate, and the Committees on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives of such determination.
SEC. 505. (a) TRANSFER OF LONG-RANGE ATACMS REQUIRED.—As soon as practicable after the date of enactment of this Act, the President shall transfer long range Army Tactical Missile Systems to the Government of Ukraine to assist the Government of Ukraine in defending itself and achieving victory against the Russian Federation. (b) NOTIFICATION.—If the President determines that executing the transfer of long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems to the Government of Ukraine pursuant to sub section (a) would be detrimental to the national security interests of the United States, the President may withhold such transfer and shall notify the congressional defense committees, the Committees on Appropriations and Foreign Relations of the Senate, and the Committees on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives of such determination.
Most likely air defense and HIMARS:
For an additional amount for ''Missile Procurement, Army'', $2,742,757,000, to remain available until September 30, 2026, to respond to the situation in Ukraine and for related expenses: Provided, That such amount is designated by the Congress as being for an emergency requirement pursuant to section 251(b)(2)(A)(i) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985.
Ammunition, including artillery and tank shells:
For an additional amount for ''Procurement of Ammunition, Army'', $5,612,900,000, to remain available until September 30, 2026, to respond to the situation in Ukraine and for related expenses: Provided, That such amount is designated by the Congress as being for an emergency requirement pursuant to section 251(b)(2)(A)(i) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985.
For an additional amount for ''Missile Procurement, Army'', $2,742,757,000, to remain available until September 30, 2026, to respond to the situation in Ukraine and for related expenses: Provided, That such amount is designated by the Congress as being for an emergency requirement pursuant to section 251(b)(2)(A)(i) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985.
Ammunition, including artillery and tank shells:
For an additional amount for ''Procurement of Ammunition, Army'', $5,612,900,000, to remain available until September 30, 2026, to respond to the situation in Ukraine and for related expenses: Provided, That such amount is designated by the Congress as being for an emergency requirement pursuant to section 251(b)(2)(A)(i) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985.
Georgians protesting pro-russian government
View: https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1780650481179627982?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
Eu, American, Georgian, Ukraine flags fly
View: https://x.com/mari_nikuradze/status/1780658732646474198?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
View: https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1780650481179627982?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
Eu, American, Georgian, Ukraine flags fly
View: https://x.com/mari_nikuradze/status/1780658732646474198?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
So it seems like the Ukraine aid is essentially the same as compared to the senate bill. We wasted months and thousands of lives..for political fucking theater.
This isn't all that accurate any more. The Ticonderoga class has been decommissioning, and most CSGs have been deploying with a single cruiser, if any at all. Most strike groups are now composed of the CVN, 4-5 Arleigh Burkes, and maybe a couple of LCS…if they can get underway.
The carrier air wing is usually 40-50 F/A-18, and a single squadron of F-35 if the CVN can support it. The rest of the airwing is made up of helos, AEW, and logistics aircraft.
A CSG is still the most powerful collection of ships in the world though.
There ya go. This is also likely a signal to jefferies to support this in the rules committee. Shit is going through. Don't even need the progressives on board for this one.
Some stuff would arrive quickly, some stuff would take longer, but the much bigger deal is that the Ukraine military could start planning with assurance of the supplies in the future and run a leaner reserve. This effectively does "free up" resources in the country itself, in a sort of way.
Maabus, do we have a general idea how many older ATACMS Ukraine might get? Plus we got hundreds of Abrams, M113 and Bradley's just gathering dust. Hopefully we give those a new price of a penny each
It would not surprise me if the US military is stockpiling weapons on the Polish/Ukraine border to move over as soon as the bill is signed and the first tranche of money is released
Atacms actual is hard to pin down due to some warhead retirement and refurbishment going on. 3700 were built in total with about a 1000 were long range version so could be several hundred left to transfer.
Abrams are tricky due the classified armor issue but other two can go quickly.
I feel much more confident now we know there isn't some poison pill in the bill.
Let's just cross everything and hope it passes.
Does the rule vote for the 4 bills require a two-thirds majority to pass? If that's the case and it passes do the separate votes for each bill only require a simple majority of 218 or do they require two-thirds as well?
Let's just cross everything and hope it passes.
Does the rule vote for the 4 bills require a two-thirds majority to pass? If that's the case and it passes do the separate votes for each bill only require a simple majority of 218 or do they require two-thirds as well?