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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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Wisconsin elected a Democratic governer while Florida voted Republican last election.
The idea that someone else would be leading with less candidates is pure speculation
It certainly would be guaranteed to be closer. Like, Bloomberg certainly isn't hurting Bernie.
Scott Walker was one of the most unpopular governors in the country and his campaign was terribly run. Still only defeated him by less than 30,000 votes even with huge turnout.
Andrew Gillum lost because of virulent racism and poor outreach to Hispanics.
And is actively contradicted by all the polling data we have.
It's weird how there is some sentiment in this thread that the primary is over and Bernie is the winner, (Edited my original post that mischaracterized the thread) gonna be interesting to see people's reaction to South Carolina and all the positive media spin Biden will get heading into Super Tuesday. We're supposed to be discussing this race realistically and critically and people acting like Bernie has 100% locked up the nomination already is just bizarre.
The news cycle Biden will get if he over performs in SC is going to be insane, the media is desperate for any kind of anti Bernie narrative and him winning the state by 20+ gives them just that. And then if Bernie under performs a little on Super Tuesday and the antiBernie vote starts getting behind Biden and he does better than expected, hoo boy it's gonna be a messy spring/summer
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An eighth of superdelegates is far from a tiny handful, and FAR more than any poll's sample.
How tf does SC have 538 spooked as if everybody and their mother didn't predict a Biden victory?
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The post I was responding to quoted someone saying just that.
CNN continues to dedicate air time to the most qualified of people.
I forgot to add the Narrator voice saying "He is in fact, does not have a good track record on this"
lol. of course. I just felt the need to voice a slightly less subtle criticism.
Good to have confirmation that this is literally the exact opposite of what they should do.
There's a difference between Biden winning SC by 1-6% and Biden winning SC by 10+%. Just like there would be a difference if Sanders won Nevada by 1-6% and what he won by.
Also, 538's model tries to quantify the unquantifiable so it over-reacts to everything.
Seriously, can posting FUD be bannable already?
From 2/23:
Haven't seen the last few polls out of South Carolina?
Lotta people should be banned for posting that Florida is unwinnable, then.Seriously, can posting FUD be bannable already?
From 2/23:
Valid point, an exaggeration that I'll edit. But there is too much "This is over" sentiment in here regarding Bernie then there should be given the critical thinking that this place exhibits on a lot of other topics.
As a Floridian, I agree. It's also not unwinnable. Like, you had people here putting higher chances on Texas than Florida which is... lol. Especially when Florida has been polling better on average than Wisconsin. Not that Florida doesn't find some way to fuck it up.
I think he's friends with Meghan Mccain, so confirmed pudding brain.
If Biden wins by 8-10 or more percentage points all the positive coverage surrounding that (the media loves a comeback story!) could definitely springboard his campaign into life.
Fair. I in no way am assured Bernie has this. But I certainly hope he does.
Going to try to check time stamps on my lunch, but Michael Brooks hosted today's Majority Report and they had a lengthy discussion about the talking point Warren is deploying about Sanders attempted use of superdelegates in 2016. I had never seen the clip of Sanders talking about it before and apparently neither did the TMR crew because it completely turns over the general understanding of what he was trying to do. He was only speaking specifically to states he won. And his underlying point appears to have been that it's crap and we should not at all circumvent the will of the people.
Unfortunately it just makes Warren look worse because her position seems to be to do anything for the tiniest of chances even if you know it's probably not going to lead to you getting anything out of it.
Unfortunately it just makes Warren look worse because her position seems to be to do anything for the tiniest of chances even if you know it's probably not going to lead to you getting anything out of it.
I haven't followed SC until very recently, but I thought the assumed scenario was a decent Biden win, with best-case-scenario being Bernie gets a near tie (like Pete in NH). Only a poll or two have put Biden in a much better position than anticipated, most average out to a 10%-ish lead.
This is MSNBC level punditry at best. He is way behind, out of money, and has no infrastructure set up for Super Tuesday which is *checks notes* next Tuesday.
On Florida:
You absolutely should not ignore Florida. There are still down ballot elections to consider and even if short term gains can be made, we have to keep trying and trying in the state. The Democratic party in Florida definitely needs to step up in general. There is more than just the presidency at stake in Florida and the GOP is up to all sorts of shenanigans in Florida.
That said, you cannot also form a campaign that is banking on winning off of the back of Florida. If you have the strength to win Florida then you could have won the election without Florida to begin with. Yet you can still win without Florida. Florida shouldn't be the primary concern of Democrats, there are other more gettable states that can win the election (especially in states with Senate races). This goes for every candidate.
Basically... hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Don't ignore Florida but don't put most of your eggs in that basket either.
You absolutely should not ignore Florida. There are still down ballot elections to consider and even if short term gains can be made, we have to keep trying and trying in the state. The Democratic party in Florida definitely needs to step up in general. There is more than just the presidency at stake in Florida and the GOP is up to all sorts of shenanigans in Florida.
That said, you cannot also form a campaign that is banking on winning off of the back of Florida. If you have the strength to win Florida then you could have won the election without Florida to begin with. Yet you can still win without Florida. Florida shouldn't be the primary concern of Democrats, there are other more gettable states that can win the election (especially in states with Senate races). This goes for every candidate.
Basically... hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Don't ignore Florida but don't put most of your eggs in that basket either.
One single poll with-in the margin of error outside of the general election is your retort to actual facts? And you're calling for me to be banned... lol.Seriously, can posting FUD be bannable already?
From 2/23:
Nobody is saying Wisconsin is +10R, not a single person. The fact is it is trending red and while it's not entirely impossible for Dems to win it this go-around or in the future, it is not likely compared to other potential pickups like Arizona which nobody would argue is bluer than Wisconsin. People were making the same arguments about Ohio when the warning signs showed it trending reliably red back in 2012.
After NH-IA a few polls putting Bernie within 3-5% of Biden in South Carolina came out that also pushed the 538 average in Bernie's direction massively. As I mentioned the 538 model is very, very, very jumpy about recent polls/results so in general I wouldn't be looking at it as overly indicative of anything.
IIRC a couple of those polls actually included Bloomberg for some weird reason.
At the moment, it's three polls released in the last two days which have Biden about 20 points ahead.
I'm not sure exactly what to make of it with national polls not moving, but prepare yourself. If this is real, and it translates somewhat to other Southern states...
I didn't say it will happen. I said it could. Way worse punditry is acting like that couldn't happen or is near impossible. Are we going to pretend that Biden having a massive win in SC and all the media fallout after it will have no effect on his polls?
By the time ST is done 40% of the vote will be in and Bloomberg will tank Biden to some extent. We'll see if he ends up collapsing like the "Bloombergers are actually just undecided whose only interface with the election so far is ads" theory says.
He's been trending down for months, and considering all the other factors I laid out, yeah. Bernie is going to win big on Super Tuesday which will erase any momentum Biden might get coming out of South Carolina.
SC was always Biden's firewall. It would be awesome if Bernie closes the gap a bit but one state isn't going to change the entire dynamic of this race.
I'd be fine with that so long as one of the horses going off to the glue factory is Bloomberg.
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