Massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine
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I hate to say it but to me that feels like a decision has already been made and all this late stage diplomatic talk from the Kremlin is just theatre to run down the clock until they are ready.
Russian-Ukrainian joint entry into NATO conditioned on de-escalation, diplomatic resolutions to Crimea and the conflicts in Donbas (and beyond) might suffice as alternate concessions and cut to the heart of Russian security demands, but it would be a stunning reversal bordering on the miraculous given mutual suspicion and decades of contrary movement, tensions, and open conflict in the case of Ukraine and Russia. Not impossible, but a good deal more ambitious and fraught than say, Nixon and China, and has there even been American thought given to the possibility of Russian entry since idk, the early 90s?
Being realistic (and I'm sure some would say cynical, but I have ample reason), if it happened the prevailing desire would be to but shift the preferential target of diplomatic, economic, and military isolation from Russia to China than it would be to seriously solve crises like these.
I mean, they don't want to be the aggressor, and they aren't keen on their soldiers dying.
However, those that do pay attention to TV are being fed non-stop propaganda that Ukraine is being run by a clique of bloodthirsty neo-nazis who are mere puppets of the Evil West; and the majority of the population secretly longs for their Russian brothers to come as liberators and end this nightmare--but obviously they can't speak up, on fear of death, repressions, and the horrid tortures that have been memes among Ukrainians ever since Russian TV first reported them in 2014-2015.
They had to struggle to come up with reasons as to why a comedian of Jewish descent who got elected President with promises to "end the war" is now saying the exact same things as his predecessor, but then Medvedev wrote an essay basically calling him scum and a traitor to his people, so it's all good now.
Yes, regularly scheduled exercises, to be completed on Saturday.
Which is why this week is peak stress, since once it's over, all the troops from North, Siberian and Far Eastern Districts shoulld start moving back to their home bases. If they don't, then it's obvious he's been full of shit.
Funny realization
Certain orgs love to point out that US's 30k troops every year participating in Korea war games is a cover for potential invasion of NK* , but when Russia moves 5x as many people and equipment while slowly spinning up "Ukraine is genociding ethnic Russians in Donbas", "If NATO isnt dismantled east of Berlin who knows what we might do", etc narratives, no red flags? "It's their territory they're exercising on so there's no logical possibility something is amiss"? It's kind of wild how many non-bots are operating in bad faith in defense of a govt nominally opposite of their ideology.
*(and we can go in circles here, KPA war games about 1m soldiers twice a year in non-covid years, incl practice operations that specifically rehearse offensive first strike against Seoul, this doesnt really get coverage For Some Reason)
Certain orgs love to point out that US's 30k troops every year participating in Korea war games is a cover for potential invasion of NK* , but when Russia moves 5x as many people and equipment while slowly spinning up "Ukraine is genociding ethnic Russians in Donbas", "If NATO isnt dismantled east of Berlin who knows what we might do", etc narratives, no red flags? "It's their territory they're exercising on so there's no logical possibility something is amiss"? It's kind of wild how many non-bots are operating in bad faith in defense of a govt nominally opposite of their ideology.
*(and we can go in circles here, KPA war games about 1m soldiers twice a year in non-covid years, incl practice operations that specifically rehearse offensive first strike against Seoul, this doesnt really get coverage For Some Reason)
I mean the most obvious argument against this is cuz you know...American/S. Korea doesn't park all their army assets right at the DMZ.
Wednesday coming... I hope nothing transpires... but this is a pretty dark world we live in, where cruelty and ambition are colossal forces of human nature, defining history since we've had any...
I think people are too focused on Wednesday. They could still delay it and launch next week or the week after.
Isn't part of the reason that people think that it'll be sooner rather than later due to weather? The ground softening up due to warmer weather would make it harder for tracked vehicles to get around, I've heard. With that said, I think that you're right that getting through the day on Wednesday magically means that everything is OK, although it'd be a good step at least.
Their declared end of training exercises is this weekend.
If they don't start backing off at that point, it will be a lot harder to maintain denialbility
BringBackSonics (reply to your post seems to be fucked, might be something to do with your own reply living inside the reply quote): My read is that many European leaders have been for some time ready to move beyond the Great Game between Great Powers mindset of imperial hegemons butting heads and spinning off endless proxy conflicts (some open, many clandestine) against each other, but that many establishment figures and leaders in Moscow and Washington alike are not. Much has been said of how old Putin and crew are, and that's also true of a great many American hawks, but waiting them out won't cut it when baby-faced hawks will just maneuver to fill the void and maintain (or worsen) the status quo. A greater role and leadership for Europe in these crises is warranted, beyond my obvious thing that greater awareness (and self-awareness) is sorely needed that imperialism is corrosive and long past its expiry date, coupled with the willingness to make waves and for leaders to consciously change course rather than be drawn down well-trod currents.
Jesus not good updates reading this shit......I just can't imagine them trying to invade the whole of Ukraine....that seems excessive and untenable. Surely as soon as they invade this becomes sort of the Iraq war of Eastern Europe? Sort of becomes the place if you have a score to settle with Russia you can come and take a shot?
Maybe not a good parallel but post invasion you had foreign fighters streaming in from all over the middle east to fuck shit up. I hope for no conflict but I'm hoping these Eastern European states are ready to band together a bit and just make it hell if Russia tries to go that far. God knows the U.S. has had a lot of time to get the anti tank missiles in there.
Maybe not a good parallel but post invasion you had foreign fighters streaming in from all over the middle east to fuck shit up. I hope for no conflict but I'm hoping these Eastern European states are ready to band together a bit and just make it hell if Russia tries to go that far. God knows the U.S. has had a lot of time to get the anti tank missiles in there.
Eh. I don't think it's really right for us to hope that Ukraine stays on fire for years. I have nothing but love for the people, if they get decisively beat quickly and give up or if they fight an insurgency for years, or whatever, whatever they decide if Putin goes through with this nonsense, has my respect. People from countries too scared to intervene themselves really shouldn't be hoping people keep this a hot war just to hurt Russia. I think that's fucked up. If we wanna make it hell for Russia we should be willing to do it ourselves not use others as pawns in a proxy war.
I agree with that 100%. In some ways, it is older than the concept of "countries", which is sort of my point. A lot might depend on whether people think that Russia is threatening Ukranian identity, rather than the country of Ukraine.
All that armor is absolutely tearing up that road, not something you'd want for "exercises"
Edit: On the first vid, the last vehicle is a bridge layer
oh, everyone knew the exercises were just pretense from the beginning.
Russian Parliament to vote today wether to recognize two Eastern Ukraine regions as independent.
Reuters
Reuters
I agree that it doesn't have to be Wednesday but the types of readiness and movements we are seeing now in commercial satellite images and from social media videos on the ground indicates something that can only be maintained for days not weeks before either going ahead or pulling back.
It feels a little alien just how closely Putin appears to be hewing to the Georgia playbook here.
And without trying to sound inflammatory, I think people forget just how close to the brink of an even larger war people thought Russia's invasion of Georgia could get. I believe it was the French foreign secretary at the time who lost his temper with Sergei Lavrov, grabbed him by the lapels and threatened to punch him, because of how intransigent Lavrov was acting. The fact that it is happening again, right down to the same people negotiating in bad faith, really does make me worry that this is a playbook they will attempt again in the future.
And without trying to sound inflammatory, I think people forget just how close to the brink of an even larger war people thought Russia's invasion of Georgia could get. I believe it was the French foreign secretary at the time who lost his temper with Sergei Lavrov, grabbed him by the lapels and threatened to punch him, because of how intransigent Lavrov was acting. The fact that it is happening again, right down to the same people negotiating in bad faith, really does make me worry that this is a playbook they will attempt again in the future.
Believe it when we see it.
This wouldn't be the first time Russia has claimed drills were over only to not follow through on troops returning to base. It happened just before Christmas too.
No indication of that in reality yet anyway. Only yesterday even more military trains were filmed heading towards the region.
stocks market is celebrating like crisis averted though lol
According to BBC quoting Interfax:
"Units of Russia's Western and Southern Military Districts are heading back to base by rail and by truck at the conclusion of their training, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday."
"Units of Russia's Western and Southern Military Districts are heading back to base by rail and by truck at the conclusion of their training, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday."
Well yeah, with the info coming from Kremlin we'll have to take it with a grain of salt..
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Russia's playbook has worked very well for them. Georgia still under control, Syria was a huge success, they basically shared Libya with Turkey, they control the conflict in Karabakh and now they've started to really engage in Africa. The lesson they learned is that limited military intervention absolutely works in their favour.
The Russian Government will always say nothing is happening and issue denials even when the shooting has started, they will still try to issue denials.
I mean Afterall Ukraine hasn't been invaded by Russians. Its Russian Sympathizers in Ukraine who are revolting. Unfortunately, the western media are complicit and play along. Russian Back "separatists" giving free airtime and news space to Russian bullshit
I mean Afterall Ukraine hasn't been invaded by Russians. Its Russian Sympathizers in Ukraine who are revolting. Unfortunately, the western media are complicit and play along. Russian Back "separatists" giving free airtime and news space to Russian bullshit
The claim is Southern and Western District troops will begin pulling back. No mention of all the troops from the Eastern part of the country. When the Eastern divisions fall back into siberia etc. that's when we know things have settled down
How much hardware leaves is a big thing too. They did this last year. Then when they pulled forces back they left behind like half the equipment so that it was already closer to Ukraine. I could see them make a strategic move and pull back forces in Belarus. I think that is one avenue Putin may get the hint on that using Belarus as a staging ground is going to be damning to Russia and Belarus economically.
Hopefully my gut instinct was correct - that the Kremlin would take this right down to the wire and then pull back from the brink at the end. I guess we'll know soon enough.
European leaders still behave like great powers though. They just don't have the reach or the impact of the USA. But Britain, France and others still apply pressure and influence to "their" former colonies for their own benefit. Hell, even Belgium does in the Congo.
Europe isn't more enlightened, its simply less powerful.
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