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kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,674
Whatever Putin does or does not do will likely be based on his own schedule rather than any perceived "slightly slower reaction time from the West". The US and Europe has made it fairly clear that it'll help on the periphery (cyber warfare, intelligence, sending weapons for Ukraine to use, giving advisement, etc...) but it's not like either is going to send in tanks to defend Ukraine or engage Russian planes directly. Russia knows this and knows that whatever retaliation the West has will be economic and a delay of an hour or two wouldn't matter in the slightest for that.
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,081
Whatever Putin does or does not do will likely be based on his own schedule rather than any perceived "slightly slower reaction time from the West". The US and Europe has made it fairly clear that it'll help on the periphery (cyber warfare, intelligence, sending weapons for Ukraine to use, giving advisement, etc...) but it's not like either is going to send in tanks to defend Ukraine or engage Russian planes directly. Russia knows this and knows that whatever retaliation the West has will be economic and a delay of an hour or two wouldn't matter in the slightest for that.
Not to be cynical I do wonder if the west actually wants the Russians to invade and create a quagmire situation for them
 

Toma

Scratching that Itch.io http://bit.ly/ItchERA
Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,908
Not to be cynical I do wonder if the west actually wants the Russians to invade and create a quagmire situation for them
Nobody in the west wants that, they just dont see any appropriate measures that doesnt lead them to an outright war with Russia.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,674
Not to be cynical I do wonder if the west actually wants the Russians to invade and create a quagmire situation for them
I'd have to imagine that any "benefit" of Russia willingly jumping into an Afghanistan situation would be more than overshadowed by the impotence of the West in standing up to aggression from Russia and the precedent that might set for China regarding Taiwan. So, even if the leaders were uncaring bastards who only care about geo-politics I'd suspect that they'd still hope that Russia does not invade.
 
Nov 23, 2019
7,876
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎

www.bbc.com

What is Russia's Vladimir Putin planning?

The BBC's Steve Rosenberg looks at what might be on the Russian leader's mind amid growing tensions.


also, big twitter thread about Russian PMC Wagner ↓





9a91bAM.png
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,190
Not to be cynical I do wonder if the west actually wants the Russians to invade and create a quagmire situation for them

Only a crazy person would want that. A large scale Russian invasion of Ukraine would displace millions of people, cause energy prices to go through the roof and put surrounding European nations at risk of destabilization or even getting drawn into a conflict. It would be a nightmare for Europe, in the middle of a new wave in this pandemic.
 

Koukalaka

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,512
Scotland
Wasn't Wagner the PMC that got absolutely obliterated when they tried to hit a Syrian base that had US air support?

That's them - that twitter thread mentions that guy later got killed during that engagement.

They seem to be a weird mixture of a PMC (some clear commercial interests here) and a deniable ops/cannon fodder arm of the Russian Government.
 

antonz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,309
Wagner basically has enough competent leadership to be an effective PMC for the deniability campaigns. Hire up undesirables. Offer prisoners release if they are willing to fight etc. Then when you are done you just send them into an impossible mission like attacking a US defended base and then there is nothing left to worry about. All while Putin says No No No Russia isn't involved.
 

Deleted member 8579

Oct 26, 2017
33,843


It's all well and good but if Russia invades, does a part land grab of Ukraine before there is a response like that, I doubt they are going to drop those off for Ukraine to get their land back, Russia will just sit there probably and go ours now and stick up a fence or something.
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,190
Measures to be discussed at the White House meeting include "extraordinary" export control measures that could choke off broad swaths of industrial and consumer technologies to Russia, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The measures being discussed could halt Russia's ability to import smartphones, key aircraft and automobile components, and materials from many other sectors. They could have a major impact on Russian consumers, industrial operations, and employment, the official said.

www.reuters.com

Exclusive: U.S. could hit Russia phone, aircraft part imports if it invades Ukraine

U.S. officials are considering tough export control measures to disrupt Russia's economy should Russian President Vladmir Putin invade Ukraine, a Biden administration official told Reuters.
 

-Hyperion-

Alt-Account
Banned
Aug 14, 2021
594
It's not going to be pretty. Ukraine has only enough javelins to outfit something like 3 of its 28 battalions. But the biggest gap is their AA. Can't do much when a jet can streak inland hundreds of kilometers and drop thousands of pounds of explosives from a mile up.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,915
the Netherlands
Russia has already invaded, and are actively at war with Ukraine. They've proven they can hold out. Likely long enough to get some supplies and counter measures in place.
A new offensive by the Russian forces currently at the border isn't gonna be comparable to what happened in 2014. Within days every Ukrainian airport will be ruins with Russia having complete control over Ukrainian airspace, the amount of Russian forces involved will be significantly higher, hundreds of bombs will be dropped by Russian jets a day. By the time the US would decide on sending those air defenses Russia would already have won.
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,190
A new offensive by the Russian forces currently at the border isn't gonna be comparable to what happened in 2014. Within days every Ukrainian airport will be ruins with Russia having complete control over Ukrainian airspace, the amount of Russian forces involved will be significantly higher, hundreds of bombs will be dropped by Russian jets a day. By the time the US would decide on sending those air defenses Russia would already have won.

I agree with that. It's not realistic. It's too late now to do it, let alone after a potential war begins. The only option would be to use a third country like Poland to bring something like Stingers over the western land border in covert operations to harass an occupying force, insurgent style. Which is exactly what The Washington Post said a taskforce in the administration is looking at now.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,856
I agree with that. It's not realistic. It's too late now to do it, let alone after a potential war begins. The only option would be to use a third country like Poland to bring something like Stingers over the western land border in covert operations to harass an occupying force, insurgent style. Which is exactly what The Washington Post said a taskforce in the administration is looking at now.
I'm sure poland and the Baltic countries have already sent what they can
 
OP
OP
Forerunner

Forerunner

Resetufologist
Banned
Oct 30, 2017
15,052
www.cnn.com

As Ukraine tensions mount, Putin says Russia has 'every right' to 'react harshly to unfriendly steps' | CNN

Russian President Vladimir Putin says his country has "every right" to "react harshly to unfriendly steps" as the US and NATO continue to pressure Moscow over its aggression towards Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said his country has "every right" to "react harshly to unfriendly steps" as the US and NATO continue to pressure Moscow over its aggression towards Ukraine.

The US and its allies have warned Russia about the consequences of further hostilities amid its continued military buildup near the Ukraine border -- a move that US intelligence has assessed as preparation for a full-scale invasion in early 2022.

Meanwhile, US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe Karen Donfried, the Biden administration's top diplomat for Europe, said the US and Europe were ready to act immediately if Russia increased aggression towards Ukraine in the coming days.

Donfried would not get into the specifics of the options that are being discussed, but said there is no sanctions option that is off the table.

According to a readout published by the Kremlin, Putin reiterated his demands to Scholz.

"Vladimir Putin informed [Olaf Scholz] about Russian proposals for long-term, legally binding security guarantees, excluding any further NATO advance to the east, as well as the deployment of offensive weapon systems in countries adjacent to Russia," the statement said.

Military and security talks between US and Russian delegations are currently underway in Vienna, and there is a "possibility" both sides will reach an understanding, RIA Novosti said, citing the head of the Russian delegation in Vienna, Konstantin Gavrilov.

However, US President Biden has consistently signaled that the US will not make any concessions on either NATO or Ukraine's future.

Similarly, Stoltenberg Tuesday warned Russia that "the age of spheres of influence is over" and stressed that Ukraine remains NATO's partner.

"Dialogue with Russia needs to be based on the core principles of European security and to address NATO's concerns about Russia's actions, and it needs to take place in consultation with NATO's European partners, including with Ukraine," he said.
 

Teddy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,302
Do we think there is a chance Russia attacks overnight on Dec 24th, when the west has its pants down, hoping it will be all over by Orthadox Christmas on Jan 7th?

I predicted they'd attack on Christmas day earlier on in this thread.

Although there are no western forces actively in Ukraine, because it's Christmas no one in the West will be checking the news so the political blowback will be slower.

It won't be the first war waged on a holiday.

(Yes Ukraine is waging a war in its East but it's still mostly a frozen conflict and not 'hot' as a full scale war).
 

Typhon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,215
I predicted they'd attack on Christmas day earlier on in this thread.

Although there are no western forces actively in Ukraine, because it's Christmas no one in the West will be checking the news so the political blowback will be slower.

It won't be the first war waged on a holiday.

(Yes Ukraine is waging a war in its East but it's still mostly a frozen conflict and not 'hot' as a full scale war).

Obviously you know more than US/Ukrainian intelligence on this subject /s
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,190
I predicted they'd attack on Christmas day earlier on in this thread.

Although there are no western forces actively in Ukraine, because it's Christmas no one in the West will be checking the news so the political blowback will be slower.

It won't be the first war waged on a holiday.

(Yes Ukraine is waging a war in its East but it's still mostly a frozen conflict and not 'hot' as a full scale war).

I don't think it would make any difference really. It might delay the political reaction of imposing sanctions by maybe 24-48 hours, but the reaction would still be the same.

More likely I think would be some kind of deniable act like a cyber attack on Ukraine over Christmas.

Everything now is pointing to talks happening in the first or second week or January about Russia's sweeping unrealistic demands on NATO, the US and Europe. It's still possible, but unlikely, that those talks will lead to an agreement that will avoid an invasion. More likely is that they are set up to fail so that they can be used as a pretext for war.
 

Teddy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,302
Obviously you know more than US/Ukrainian intelligence on this subject /s

I was just agreeing with the other poster, I certainly don't think it's an outlandish idea they may use the holidays as cover for an attack.

Obviously intelligence agencies will know more than we know.

I don't think it would make any difference really. It might delay the political reaction of imposing sanctions by maybe 24-48 hours, but the reaction would still be the same.

More likely I think would be some kind of deniable act like a cyber attack on Ukraine over Christmas.

Everything now is pointing to talks happening in the first or second week or January about Russia's sweeping unrealistic demands on NATO, the US and Europe. It's still possible, but unlikely, that those talks will lead to an agreement that will avoid an invasion. More likely is that they are set up to fail so that they can be used as a pretext for war.

I agree but I think 24-48 hours could be extremely important strategically which may be all Putin needs.

Yeah the cyber warfare front is certainly something that we've not seen as a full coordinated attack yet, it could prove devastating if done successfully and I agree Putin could use it as an excuse to 'stabilise' Ukraine.

Yeah the talks will be interesting to see if they agree anything at all (we certainly shouldn't cave to any of Russia's demands).
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,190
I'm guessing that was at the request of the Baltic states who must feel pretty concerned seeing what is happening around the borders of Ukraine and the noises from the Kremlin.
 
Nov 23, 2019
7,876
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎
www.theguardian.com

Nord Stream 2: how Putin’s pipeline paralysed the west

Gazprom’s $11bn project to deliver gas from Russia to Germany seems impossible to abandon and impossible to carry forward
In his book Germany's Russia Problem, John Lough, Chatham House fellow, has studied how Germany's emotional connection with Russian society and culture has contributed to a German willingness to misread the direction in which Russia has been heading. Speaking at Chatham House recently he argued "a strange combination of emotions is at play – an historic fear of Russia, a sense of guilt for the crimes of the Nazis, a gratitude to Moscow for permitting German unification to happen when it did and with such speed, and a large measure of sentimentality based on a liking of Russian culture. Then there was an economic logic – historically Germany has had the technology and Russia the resources, and that creates some sort of natural complementarity between the two countries. Finally there is a widely held perception that Ostpolitik [the normalisation of relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and Eastern Europe] from the late 1960s and 70s brought an end to the cold war. By relaxing tensions, building contacts, trading more, somehow in the end Russia will be a rational actor". There is an almost religious belief that since Russia needs markets and Germany needs Russian gas, the mutual dependence will ensure stability.
Lough argues Germany finds it very difficult to accept that Russia has been steadily moving in an authoritarian direction. "To do so you would have to shift policy and recognise you are dealing with a much more difficult partner".
Indeed Merkel's instinct, according to her long term chief foreign policy adviser Christoph Heusgen in Der Spiegel, was always to keep in mind what was tolerable to Russia. For that reason she opposed the Nato action plan for Ukraine, the provision of offensive weapons and continued to argue Nord Stream did not threaten Europe's energy security.
 

horkrux

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,893
Putin is currently answering questions and has just rambled on and on about security and 1918 and Lenin and lots of other unhinged shit lmao

 

Deleted member 8579

Oct 26, 2017
33,843
I wonder who takes over Putin or what would actually happen since he has stolen all the money, he is 69 years old but probably doesn't like anyone getting too big for their boots who can pose a threat but he will be gone one day. Constantly looking over your shoulder, you couldn't trust anyone and neither do people looking at him, hope he is miserable.
 

Geeker

Member
May 11, 2019
595
Is it just me or is Russia the pettiest and most annoying drama queen around? It really is too bad that it is a drama queen with 10k nukes
 

Deleted member 8579

Oct 26, 2017
33,843
I don't think he is unhinged, just preaching and stirring nationalism and perhaps a little desperate to sell gas or whatever, seeing who blinks first. Sure he might do another crimea but I don't think he is losing the plot, just pathetically puffing his chest for his own image at home.
 
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