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ajoshi

Member
Sep 11, 2021
2,037
Potential Russian op reads like honest leak. Won't stop usual twitter schizos from thinking it's a reverse uno double false flag by CIA or something, but even with Iraq WMD on the balance, I don't think NATO is going to invent pretext for a conflict in which Russia will likely come out on top, esp with desire to focus on PRC instead. And it reads like the Putin MO for most of the shit they are actually guilty the past decade.

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kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,557
Potential Russian op reads like honest leak. Won't stop usual twitter schizos from thinking it's a reverse uno double false flag by CIA or something, but even with Iraq WMD on the balance, I don't think NATO is going to invent pretext for a conflict in which Russia will likely come out on top, esp with desire to focus on PRC instead. And it reads like the Putin MO for most of the shit they are actually guilty the past decade.

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Tankies are a lost cause so don't even worry what they think. They're useless fools. I hope that the US sends a lot of weapons to the Ukraine. If Russia is going to invade then make those fuckers pay. Also, heavy sanctions should be imposed and maintained for years. Send a message that this is not something that the world will tolerate.
 

Grain Silo

Member
Dec 15, 2017
2,562
Does the US have the power to unilaterally hobble Russia's economy in the event this invasion actually happens? I'm somewhat ignorant about how sanctions work and if/how Russia is dependent on global trade ties to the US to function. Could anyone enlighten me?
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,557
Does the US have the power to unilaterally hobble Russia's economy in the event this invasion actually happens? I'm somewhat ignorant about how sanctions work and if/how Russia is dependent on global trade ties to the US to function. Could anyone enlighten me?
The EU would likely be on board for major sanctions.
 

Culex

Member
Oct 29, 2017
6,989
False flag also gives the government the ability to say "SEE! They DO deserve to be invaded!"
 

Sabin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,721
Does the US have the power to unilaterally hobble Russia's economy in the event this invasion actually happens? I'm somewhat ignorant about how sanctions work and if/how Russia is dependent on global trade ties to the US to function. Could anyone enlighten me?

EU would be 100% on board with sanctions if Russia decides to pull the trigger.
 

Jisgsaw

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,431
Does the US have the power to unilaterally hobble Russia's economy in the event this invasion actually happens? I'm somewhat ignorant about how sanctions work and if/how Russia is dependent on global trade ties to the US to function. Could anyone enlighten me?
The US could impose sanctions alone (i.e. impose sanctions on any company doing business with / in Russia in embargoed sectors), but that may ruffle some european feathers. Much more likely we'll see a coordinated EU+US sanction, as the EU is sure to want to act too.

Given how the mild sanctions over Crimea already wrecked the Russian economy, I'd expect Russian economy to get really fucked in the next years if Putin goes through with it.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,753
The US could impose sanctions alone (i.e. impose sanctions on any company doing business with / in Russia in embargoed sectors), but that may ruffle some european feathers. Much more likely we'll see a coordinated EU+US sanction, as the EU is sure to want to act too.

Given how the mild sanctions over Crimea already wrecked the Russian economy, I'd expect Russian economy to get really fucked in the next years if Putin goes through with it.
They have to ban Russia from SWIFT if they invade Ukraine. I still have my doubts whether the EU (aka german goverment) would agree to that
 

ajoshi

Member
Sep 11, 2021
2,037
Sometimes I wonder why they even bother 'creating a pretext', the usual fools will believe any of their lies anyway.

Just enough rhetorical cover for clients, allies, and disinterested states to give "uh I don't know" or "yes the Western running dogs must pay" votes in UNGA. Plus, they can safely assume that US/NATO won't disclose actual crown jewels of comms intercept/human sourcing just to prove them wrong in int'l court of opinion, outside of intel/senior officials leaking out of ego or boredom.

Edit: also of course the domestic angle. Russians are cynical of their own media, like people in many other nations, but when it comes to narratives vs foreign forces, a good chunk will take whatever copium they are give... like people in many other nations. I know otherwise reasonably intelligent, worldly-ish Russians who come to drink kool-aid on shit like MH17 conspiracies even after they initially accepted the obvious truth.
 
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Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,165
Administration officials interviewed this week said that plans to help Ukrainian insurgents could include providing training in nearby countries that are part of NATO's eastern flank: Poland, Romania and Slovakia, which could enable insurgents to slip in and out of Ukraine. Beyond logistical support and weapons, the United States and NATO allies could also provide medical equipment, services and even sanctuary during Russian offensives. The United States would almost certainly supply weapons, the officials said.

The United States is also moving toward providing Ukraine with battlefield intelligence that could help the country more quickly respond to an invasion, senior administration officials said.

www.nytimes.com

U.S. Considers Backing an Insurgency if Russia Invades Ukraine (Published 2022)

Conversations about how far the United States would go to subvert Russia in the event of an invasion have revived the specter of a new Cold War.

This is all highly dangerous stuff. I'm skeptical if it would actually happen because of how dangerous it would be. I guess it's being leaked to the New York Times now to try to deter Russia from invading.
 

Ghostmaster

Member
Oct 25, 2017
244
The sanctions are a very tricky thing, so that is probably why the most we have heard about them is that they will be "very severe" whatever that means.

The truth is that ultimately it is hard to gauge what the actual aim of the sanctions would be, probably the idea to create enough internal pressure on Putin, but if that fails and he instead manages to shift the blame of the sanctions on the west and create even more anti-west sentiment, then what?

If it is the hope that they impact the economy, again the big question is how many countries will actually abide that and how will China and Russia respond. Putin has probably learned from the fate of the soviet union and would probably turn to full on nationalism before allowing the economy to potentially impact his rule over the country.

And finally there is the military aspect, if the sanctions are so severe that Putin feels like he has no other choice but to force NATO's hand and he has the backing of the Russian people, then what? Nuclear war? This idea of a potential hot war between NATO and Russia where somehow both sides are capable of withholding their nuclear arsenals is laughable, the moment open war is declared nukes would start flying.

Sanctions didn't manage to overthrow the rulers in Cuba, North Korea and Iran, and one of the reasons why they are even deemed effective is because it prevents those states from obtaining enough military power (nuclear in some cases) to be a threat. But Russia already has enough firepower to obliterate the world two times over so it is a completely different situation.

Then there is of course the question of what will China do? If China also decides to go for Taiwan in the near future, then what?

If we end up with open war in Ukraine we really are fully back on the cold war train, maybe even worse than before, and with the timing of the global warming and massive immigrations coming in the relative future, we can only hope that this is all blustering or we are all fucked.
 
Dec 4, 2017
3,097
If we end up with open war in Ukraine we really are fully back on the cold war train, maybe even worse than before, and with the timing of the global warming and massive immigrations coming in the relative future, we can only hope that this is all blustering or we are all fucked.
What do you mean "end up"? There's been a war in Ukraine since 2014. Which is also the year Putin decided the "cold war train" has left the station (again). The West wouldn't do anything except finally acknowledge this.
 

myth

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Jul 15, 2021
283
I still highly doubt Russia will invade, last thing Putin needs is more economic instability
 

eonden

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,165
The sanctions are a very tricky thing, so that is probably why the most we have heard about them is that they will be "very severe" whatever that means.

The truth is that ultimately it is hard to gauge what the actual aim of the sanctions would be, probably the idea to create enough internal pressure on Putin, but if that fails and he instead manages to shift the blame of the sanctions on the west and create even more anti-west sentiment, then what?

If it is the hope that they impact the economy, again the big question is how many countries will actually abide that and how will China and Russia respond. Putin has probably learned from the fate of the soviet union and would probably turn to full on nationalism before allowing the economy to potentially impact his rule over the country.
The economy already potentially impacts his rule over the country. The entire Crimea situation was a way to try and pop the ratings up at the time and this escalation is the same thing. (Problem is people are also incredibly disillusioned with a possible Ukraine invasion because they know it would be a quagmire).

The Ukraine situation is all going full on nationalism trying to play to the fears of the Russians over NATO and the west.

If we end up with open war in Ukraine we really are fully back on the cold war train, maybe even worse than before, and with the timing of the global warming and massive immigrations coming in the relative future, we can only hope that this is all blustering or we are all fucked.
Putin has been on the cold war train since like 2008 when he invaded Georgia.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,554
the Netherlands
Sanctions can only have an impact if they're so extremely severe that they cause the complete collapse of the Russian economy. The Russian elite surrounding Putin wont care about anything else.
 

Ghostmaster

Member
Oct 25, 2017
244
What do you mean "end up"? There's been a war in Ukraine since 2014. Which is also the year Putin decided the "cold war train" has left the station (again). The West wouldn't do anything except finally acknowledge this.
There is a reason why I mentioned open war, what I meant by that was an open declaration of war. As for the cold war we still haven't reached the height of the 60s. People forget that there used to be drills in schools in case of a nuclear attack, three different occasions where nuclear war was avoided by the pure composure of the actual people in those situations (not the leaders of the countries). At least we still got that declaration that US and Russia are highly opposed to nuclear war a few weeks ago. I would say we are in lukewarm territory now.
 
OP
OP
Forerunner

Forerunner

Resetufologist
The Fallen
Oct 30, 2017
14,984
www.thedrive.com

Russia Orders Snap Drills Of Its Eastern Units As Negotiations Over Ukraine Disintegrate

The Russian maneuvers, which stress long-range deployments, come as Ukraine reels from the effects of a major cyberattack.

The Russian military has launched a series of snap drills in the far east of the country, leading to speculation that additional forces could be being prepared to move west, closer to the border with Ukraine, where Moscow has been steadily massing troops and equipment as fears of a potential invasion of that country grow. The military maneuvers in the far east of Russia come after talks between Russian and Western officials to address the worsening security situation ended in a stalemate. At the same time, a large-scale cyberattack targeting Ukrainian government websites has occurred.

The Russian Ministry of Defense today released footage of the snap drills in the Eastern Military District, including armored vehicles and other military equipment being loaded onto trains as part of what it described as an inspection drill to practice deploying over long distances. "Some formations and units are being transferred to unfamiliar training grounds at a considerable distance from their points of permanent deployment," Russia's state-owned RIA Novosti news agency reported. "Particular attention will be paid to the possibilities of transport infrastructure for the movement of military personnel and equipment."



While the final destination of this equipment is unclear, there are concerns that it may be transported closer to the frontier with Ukraine or, otherwise, these are elements being moved as a diversionary tactic to cover other developments in the western border region.

Whatever the ultimate objective of these movements in the far east, it seems clear that Moscow is presently unwilling to try and take action to reduce the level of tensions with the West without the U.S. and its NATO allies meeting a series of demands.

"The threat of military invasion is high," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters. "There are no dates set for any more talks. We have to consult with allies and partners first."

Within hours of the talks ending, Ukraine's government-owned digital infrastructure was hit by a so-far unattributed cyberattack. A message placed by hackers on the website of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stated: "Ukrainian! All your personal data was uploaded to the public network. All data on the computer is destroyed, it is impossible to restore it." The message was written in Ukrainian, Russian, and Polish and it also showed the Ukrainian flag and map crossed out.

Additional U.S. intelligence apparently also reveals that Russia has been moving military helicopters, as well as attack aircraft, closer to Ukraine's border. Although the locations of these movements have not been revealed, unnamed U.S. officials have confirmed the development to the New York Times, suggesting that it's a possible sign that planning for an attack continues.

At the same time, however, the number of Russian troops at Ukraine's border has remained steady in recent weeks, despite U.S. intelligence predictions of a surge. While official Ukrainian reports suggest that there are now approximately 100,000 Russian troops in the areas adjacent to the borders with Ukraine, the Washington Post has published a story stating that U.S. intelligence assesses the figure to be smaller, at around 70,000 Russian troops, but that Moscow is planning a large-scale intervention into Ukraine involving at least 175,000 personnel on the ground. With this in mind, Russia's eastern snap drills will be watched very carefully for the possibility of large movements of personnel and materiel west towards Ukraine to bolster the forces already deployed there.

With negotiations collapsing and rhetoric soaring, it seems that this crisis has entered a new, highly tumultuous phase. Russia is playing a game of very high-risk brinksmanship and nobody seems to have a clear idea how it will unfold.
 

Ghostmaster

Member
Oct 25, 2017
244
The economy already potentially impacts his rule over the country. The entire Crimea situation was a way to try and pop the ratings up at the time and this escalation is the same thing. (Problem is people are also incredibly disillusioned with a possible Ukraine invasion because they know it would be a quagmire).

The Ukraine situation is all going full on nationalism trying to play to the fears of the Russians over NATO and the west.
Yes, this is why I don't see the war happening at this point, even if Russia was to take Ukraine, then what? It would be a huge cost to get it up and running again. And where would that money come from?

This seems like a weird way to issue an ultimatum of if Ukraine ever gets far along in the NATO talks we will invade.
 

Ghostmaster

Member
Oct 25, 2017
244
Nobody has used those since September '39. Now people just invade whatever place they want invaded.
I mean this is just not true. If Russia wants to take all of Ukraine it would have to go openly into war and vote it in their parliament. You can't just pretend that somehow separatists have access to planes and hypersonic missiles.

At the end of the day the US declared war on Iraq, it didn't just invade.
 
Dec 4, 2017
3,097
Yes, this is why I don't see the war happening at this point, even if Russia was to take Ukraine, then what? It would be a huge cost to get it up and running again. And where would that money come from?

This seems like a weird way to issue an ultimatum of if Ukraine ever gets far along in the NATO talks we will invade.
It's not only about Ukraine. It's also because of Moldova. Maia Sandu has been quite aggressive at purging Russian Mafia (basically, yet another arm of Putin's power) -aligned "businessmen" from the government and ancillary organizations.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,554
the Netherlands
I mean this is just not true. If Russia wants to take all of Ukraine it would have to go openly into war and vote it in their parliament. You can't just pretend that somehow separatists have access to planes and hypersonic missiles.

At the end of the day the US declared war on Iraq, it didn't just invade.
The US never declared war on Iraq. The last time the US officially declared war was on June 5th 1942 against Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania.
 

Ghostmaster

Member
Oct 25, 2017
244
The US never declared war on Iraq. The last time the US officially declared war was on June 5th 1942 against Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania.
Maybe not naming it in an open declaration, but as far as I remember the invasion still had to be approved by congress? No?

It's not only about Ukraine. It's also because of Moldova. Maia Sandu has been quite aggressive at purging Russian Mafia (basically, yet another arm of Putin's power) -aligned "businessmen" from the government and ancillary organizations.

Yeah it has been clear for a while that this more about the projection of power, but that has been par for the course for a while now as many have pointed out. The weird thing is that this is getting this close to an actual invasion, it just doesn't seem economically viable in Russia's case. The troop movements might be a big bluff but at the end of the day even that can't be too cheap. So probably the goal is to get some serious concessions. It is probable that the actual demands that have been stated in the media have been blown up to ridiculous proportions as is often the case in these things to allow for the famous "meeting in the middle", but what is actually wanted might still be substantial enough that neither side wants to back down.
 
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bananas

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,917
The US never declared war on Iraq. The last time the US officially declared war was on June 5th 1942 against Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania.

Maybe not naming it in an open declaration, but as far as I remember the invasion still had to be approved by congress? No?
This is semantics, Congress voted on approval for "Use of Military Force Against Iraq". It's a declaration of war in all but name.
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,165
I mean this is just not true. If Russia wants to take all of Ukraine it would have to go openly into war and vote it in their parliament. You can't just pretend that somehow separatists have access to planes and hypersonic missiles.

At the end of the day the US declared war on Iraq, it didn't just invade.

Putin's party controls the vast majority of seats in the parliament, and some of the remaining seats are held by parties that are even more right wing and militant.

If the reports today are true, then the pretext for invasion will be "false flag'" attacks in the eastern Ukraine. Separatist leaders would then publicly request assistance from Russia. And then the forces that have slowly been assembled over the last number of months would attack, perhaps with a rubber stamp vote in parliament first.
 
Oct 25, 2017
29,927
www.nytimes.com

U.S. Considers Backing an Insurgency if Russia Invades Ukraine (Published 2022)

Conversations about how far the United States would go to subvert Russia in the event of an invasion have revived the specter of a new Cold War.

This is all highly dangerous stuff. I'm skeptical if it would actually happen because of how dangerous it would be. I guess it's being leaked to the New York Times now to try to deter Russia from invading.
The US would 1000% support Ukraine secretly if a full scale war with Russia broke out.

At the minimum would be massive shipments of AA & AT launchers.
 
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
I think posters have a very poor understanding of internal Russian politics if they're hyper-focused on the impact of sanctions and Russia's economy. The reality is, that unless the sanctions sufficiently and precisely target the most powerful oligarchs. Putin has remained largely popular and beloved despite all the sanctions that came from his annexation of Crimea and subsequent covert invasion into Luhansk and Donetsk. The Russian economy took a hit, but he was largely able to spin that as Western powers causing harm to Russia and that he was just returning Russian citizens to their "proper place" in his annexation of Crimea (which itself has a long and tragic history that did end up in a majority Russian population in the peninsula, so that was the subtext with which that took place).

If the Western powers enforce sanctions similarly how they did last time, they will only further breed resentment for the West and the propaganda machines are really quite good at deflecting the blame off the Russian government. The reality is, no matter how much the West pushes sanctions and tries to wreck the Russian economy, it will never be as morbid and crippling as the 1990s were for Russia (and most of the former Soviet states for that matter). There's a massive generational shock that is still present in any person over 25 you talk to today about how poverty stricken and destitute they were during that era, and much of it directly ties into the West's failures to address the post Soviet states and funneling money to genericall pro-capitalism bureaucrats that were massively corrupt. It was in that vacuum that Putin first stepped in and provided what the public wanted most, stability, and ever since he's been the devil they know versus the devils they don't. He rise to power was coordinated alongside a strong anti-Western sentiment that sought to paint the West as the root of problems in Russia as well, so Putin's establishment of stability in a desperate country also coincided with the kindling of the strong anti-West sentiment Putin is marching to still.

As long as things remain better than the 1990s and Putin doesn't incur too much death from his potential military campaigns on the Russian side, people aren't going to turn on him and will suffer through the economy. That generational trauma is just that strong, and there's a fair point people are also terrified of what other oligarchs or figures might rise up if Putin was ever displaced as well.

Sanctions aren't really the weapon the US and the West wants them to be, and starving people to convince them to to overthrow the government typically breeds more resentment towards the people causing the starving directly rather than the people broadly responsible for it being imposed.
 
Dec 4, 2017
3,097
The reality is, that unless the sanctions sufficiently and precisely target the most powerful oligarchs.
This is precisely what the US and EU have done. They have selectively targeted several from Putin's inner circle. And the recent suspension of Nord Stream 2 was a direct hit to them as well (not so much to the average Russian, since the vast majority of gas/oil funds gets stolen by Putin and his cronies).
 

Engell

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,621
Russia was a mistake...

NATO needs to support Ukraine asap. and place troops etc if Ukraine asks for it.

Russia(Putin etc) wont ever stop their shit before someone bigger actually stands up to them. They are the schoolyard psycho bully. If troops are not stationed in Ukraine they will eat it piece by piece.. and then the next country etc...
 

Typhon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,190
Russia was a mistake...

NATO needs to support Ukraine asap. and place troops etc if Ukraine asks for it.

Russia(Putin etc) wont ever stop their shit before someone bigger actually stands up to them. They are the schoolyard psycho bully. If troops are not stationed in Ukraine they will eat it piece by piece.. and then the next country etc...

Must be nice living in a fantasy world where nuclear weapons don't exist.
 
Oct 25, 2017
29,927
Russia was a mistake...

NATO needs to support Ukraine asap. and place troops etc if Ukraine asks for it.

Russia(Putin etc) wont ever stop their shit before someone bigger actually stands up to them. They are the schoolyard psycho bully. If troops are not stationed in Ukraine they will eat it piece by piece.. and then the next country etc...
Problem is they'd need to get significant numbers in and in multiple strategic locations.

They aren't going to fight Russia to defend Ukraine though so its basically just a deterrent.
However Russia has good intelligence as well so as soon as they see that they are going in Russia will move on anything else(if they are actually serious)


Unlike NATO that is okay with how everything currently is,
Just the land is a positive for Russia(regardless of actually being worth anything like resources)
 

Dyle

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
30,280
Putin is so predictable with his timing, always doing these military maneuvers around the Olympics, here's hoping it's just sword rattling this time
 

Midas

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,572
I just can't grasp this, is the world going to let Russia just take Ukraine? I mean, they did let them just take a part of it a couple of years back? 🤷‍♂️
 

Deleted member 4614

Oct 25, 2017
6,345
Russia is looking at how Hong Kong fell, and thinking "yeah, we can get away with it"
 
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