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weemadarthur

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,608
My question is can you point me to the Post that makes you feel the Day 1 read of HP so strong that you are basing the whole game around Extreme confidence he will flip scum? (day 1 votes are notorisly bad)
It's not one post, it's the amount of protectionism that went into saving him. That's not a thing that generally happens in a TvT vote. The amount of involvement at day end wasn't the normal limp TvT d1 affair, which suggests a main wagon was indeed scum. HP is a very plausible one because he behaved scummy all game and is using his power role as his only defense for us not removing him. Even at the time, I acknowledged the role was real but NAI as an argument.
 

jman1954goat

Linked the Fire
Member
May 9, 2020
12,447
It's not one post, it's the amount of protectionism that went into saving him. That's not a thing that generally happens in a TvT vote. The amount of involvement at day end wasn't the normal limp TvT d1 affair, which suggests a main wagon was indeed scum. HP is a very plausible one because he behaved scummy all game and is using his power role as his only defense for us not removing him. Even at the time, I acknowledged the role was real but NAI as an argument.
I can see the logic in the way the defense formed However anytime a player pulls out a claim even when completely Unconfirmed also get quick Vote switches from Town Players and usually survive the day.

Was there Big HP defense Pre-Claim? Post claim it makes sense that people switched off as many would buy the Double Vote as town in the Heat of the moment.

Hell even ATP in the moment had doubt in the moment when double Vote was first used

I will take another look and see if the reaction looks non organic.
 

weemadarthur

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,608
Was there Big HP defense Pre-Claim? Post claim it makes sense that people switched off as many would buy the Double Vote as town in the Heat of the moment.
There's also the fact that HP himself, assuming he is town….knows his own role. A double voter gets more useful as time goes on, right? So it's at its MOST useless on day one. But even assuming this, he randomly votes ANY person, to save himself. Who could easily have been a role that is MORE useful in the early game. A town player should NOT save themself in a fairly-useless-at-the-moment role, at the expense of another player who might be the cop or whatever. It's bad town play. For that alone, I feel HP should be flipped.
 

Leo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,558
I am being a lawyer trying to Prove HP's innocents by having him answer questions to show the thread why we Don't need to worry about him for now.

We need to first establish that HP has a second shot.

now we need HP to Promise to not use that second shot until we are in LYLO cause No way scum has a double vote in LYLO.

If he Follows orders we can trust his claim more.

If he follows instructions However his Bullet does not work in Lylo We Execute on the spot.

There are other factors that may sway the view of HP's innocents one way or the other along the way but we deal with that as it comes up.

This is a lot of nonsense and there's one scenario where i don't think you're scum pushing our boundaries, and that's why I won't chase it for now.
 

jman1954goat

Linked the Fire
Member
May 9, 2020
12,447
I agree HP played Day 1 absolutely Awful no arguments there.
A town player should NOT save themself in a fairly-useless-at-the-moment role, at the expense of another player who might be the cop or whatever. It's bad town play.
Not even talking about HP here I fundamentally Disagree with this Logic on a Fundamental level.

I think you should save yourself from a Day Vote art all cost unless the person is confirmed town to you.

Even a Vanilla Town should save themselves(confirmmed Town) instead of an unknown alignment. Possibly Hitting scum is always better than hitting the Confirmed town in yourself.

We literally take the risk of hitting a power role every time we vote for anyone it's bullshit to say saving yourself is somehow any different from a regular vote.
 

HPSauce

Member
Jan 10, 2018
3,118
U.K.
There's also the fact that HP himself, assuming he is town….knows his own role. A double voter gets more useful as time goes on, right? So it's at its MOST useless on day one. But even assuming this, he randomly votes ANY person, to save himself. Who could easily have been a role that is MORE useful in the early game. A town player should NOT save themself in a fairly-useless-at-the-moment role, at the expense of another player who might be the cop or whatever. It's bad town play. For that alone, I feel HP should be flipped.
This is utter shite and you know it
 

jman1954goat

Linked the Fire
Member
May 9, 2020
12,447
Do you have any scum reads, jman1954goat ? If HP is town, what do you make of the vote yesterday? Where was scum in that vote?
No Hard reads on anyone just trying to feel the day out.

Day 1 can be a cluster to read vote intentions especially with no scum Flips yet. Scum probably have there hands in multiple Jars.

so to answer are scum on HP Vote. Maybe?
 

weemadarthur

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,608
Not even talking about HP here I fundamentally Disagree with this Logic on a Fundamental level.
If you and I carved "agree to disagree" in stone, we would never need to replace our methodology instruction book. However at times we are on the same team and must work to understand each others' ways.
This is utter shite and you know it



Keeping one's team at optimal level is a GOOD thing to think about in a team game. Even if one chooses not to take a dive, one should support it via reasoning.
 

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,425
Scum HP with a double vote won't wait until almost the last minute to save himself. He'd use it earlier and then prove the claim.

How he acted doesn't make sense as town but it doesn't make him scum. Bad town is still town.
 

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,425
Anyway it's D2 now so maybe we can stop tunneling and setting up awful chains.

The final wagons were likely TvT. Move on.
 

FateShirou

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,090
not even 36 hours into this game and im already
73e020f56c4a86221823bc32113b4316d2-25-ben-affleck-sad-smoke.2x.w710.jpg
 

FateShirou

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,090
Blargonaut read list

It makes me think you only read half that post
you have a slight scum read on jman, what are you going to do about it?

Anyway, my take for now is that HP should be flipped, and LP and Ephi didn't look good yesterday.

Blarg did some serious vote hopping and I've seen him doing it as scum and town so more information is needed.

Jman defending HP isn't making much sense to me but i don't know what to make of it yet.

Neki also looked bad, but my hunch is that was town bad and not scum bad. He was very active on the thread and seemed very unsure all the way through, got a genuine vibe from that.

Feeling a lot better about ATP today.
Are you saying HP's flip is connected to Ephidel and LP?
what kind of info do u want out of blarg?
you are giving scum vibes off this post Leo
if you arnt attacking any1 ur scum
and ur really smiley this game, even that softball to jman was softer than cheesecake

No Hard reads on anyone just trying to feel the day out.

Day 1 can be a cluster to read vote intentions especially with no scum Flips yet. Scum probably have there hands in multiple Jars.

so to answer are scum on HP Vote. Maybe?
this is the most nothing post ive seen
no hard reads, nothing on day 1 cuz we need a scum flip already
ugh

you gonna do anything or?

malus
I gave u a pass for lurking in eastenders, not going to do that again
give me ur top scum/town

you as well Royal_Flush

The final wagons were likely TvT. Move on.
lead the way cap
 

Zippedpinhead

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,747
not even 36 hours into this game and im already
73e020f56c4a86221823bc32113b4316d2-25-ben-affleck-sad-smoke.2x.w710.jpg
Keep a smiley face!

OmqZ.gif


Ok let's assume HP and Launch were both town. Who gained the most from the flip flops? Did anyone other than Sneeks lose a bunch of votes yesterday?
Now this has me wondering, does scum gain more from parking a vote or from being in the mix on the wagons (or at least the wagon that didn't generate a flip.
 

A Wild Shark Appears

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Nov 6, 2017
1,421
I feel that there's a certain ratio of actual post to shitpost when it comes to reading Blarg. Right now the ratio for this game is pointing to a Scum!Blarg.
 

A Wild Shark Appears

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Nov 6, 2017
1,421
BTW A Wild Ambulance Appears I was going to vote for you because I felt your vote for me today was way too easy, but the fact you flipped opinions on me from yesterday changed my mind for now.
Call it easy if you like, but when I see a logical player like yourself post an illogical defense of HP I find that suspect.

Also this a more of a meta read, but Zipped's posts today feel like town!Zipped.
 

malus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,947
My availability today might be a bit spotty but I'll try to contribute as good as I can.
 

malus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,947
So my question to @malus is why throw out accusations like this and then not even try to substantiate your votes? After the initial heat on you died down from this, you pretty much checked out.
I didn't really have much to substantiate my votes except for gut feelings.
@malus
I gave u a pass for lurking in eastenders, not going to do that again
give me ur top scum/town
Top Scum: Probably LP after the EoD, but I'll have to catch up to form a solid opinion.
Top Town: Still based on gut I'd say Wee.
 

malus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,947
vote: hp
day end says we do this, and when he comes up mafia, we kill neki. Mayube LP too. And blarg, which makes me sad, all the effort i spend translating, and if you turn out not my team, i will feel *sniff* taken advantage of

If HP flips town then I want to see LP's flip, because i don't think EVERY wagon that day was TvTvTvTvT, and we've seen 2 of the flips already and they were town.

So basically no matter how HP flips, you want to flip LP too? Why not go for LP now?

Keep a smiley face!

OmqZ.gif


Ok let's assume HP and Launch were both town. Who gained the most from the flip flops? Did anyone other than Sneeks lose a bunch of votes yesterday?
Now this has me wondering, does scum gain more from parking a vote or from being in the mix on the wagons (or at least the wagon that didn't generate a flip.
In my experience Scum tends to shy away from late stage wagon hopping. So I'd like to take a look at people that were around but decided to keep their votes on the sidelines.
 

malus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,947
People that voted off wagon:

Zipped (voted Jman): I'm really not a fan of this vote. That wagon was doa and Zipped must have known that, so it looks like he just wanted to park it away from any vote activity before dipping. Can't really fault him for staying out of the EoD shenanigans though since he wasn't there.

Yuta (voted Blarg):
I'm dead serious btw. Scum!blarg always pushes for claims opportunistically. Remember this tomorrow.
This quote makes it clear that he doesn't expect his wagon to take off, but at least he advertises his wagon again.
I was feeling dizzy at the day end and couldn't concentrate on writing, so I had to bail out after my longer post. Don't really know how I would've reacted, since I generally see double as a town power. But that last second decision felt bad to read.

Saw as the kill screams framing or switcheroo.
He did say he bailed before the craziness started, so again, not much to go after, but it's clear he wanted to stay off wagon deliberately.

Fate (voted Neki): He was heavily involved in the confusion after the double vote. He first followed HP to Launch (though this vote didn't count on the vote tool) but then got cold feet and switched to Neki. I feel like the switch to Launch is not something Scum would do even though the change then to Neki doesn't look very good.

Of those three I'd say from scummiest to towniest my list would be Zipped > Yuta > Fate.
 
Nov 2, 2017
1,075
giphy.gif


I'm back! Let me digest what you've all been on about.

I agree HP played Day 1 absolutely Awful no arguments there.

Not even talking about HP here I fundamentally Disagree with this Logic on a Fundamental level.

I think you should save yourself from a Day Vote art all cost unless the person is confirmed town to you.

Even a Vanilla Town should save themselves(confirmmed Town) instead of an unknown alignment. Possibly Hitting scum is always better than hitting the Confirmed town in yourself.

We literally take the risk of hitting a power role every time we vote for anyone it's bullshit to say saving yourself is somehow any different from a regular vote.
One thing I did want to touch on was your view Jman. Personally, what makes HP feel so bad is how anti-town that day end was. HP was in contention for at least an hour before day end, there was no need for the double vote to come as late as it did and cause panic. Of course, people aren't going to play the ideal way at all times, but if you're town with a double vote power, why not discuss that? Why not even say "I have a power role" or something like that. D1, it can be easy to avoid a vote if you're willing to open up about it and HP knows that.

Even the way it was used wasn't pro town. It could be saved for a clutch moment but it's been spunked away. I just don't like how it looks and feels. And I agree with zipped - that flavour is the cherry on top for me. And like wee said, he took a massive risk by instead doing his own thing and getting a potentially powerful role voted out. On someone they didn't want to vote out, by their own admission. And it wasn't their only option as LP had a similar number of votes and could have swung that way instead.
 
Nov 2, 2017
1,075
At least put some angry or some reasoning down Fred. I want to policy vote low vote posters on D1 but no one wants to go there. HP does double vote at EoD and where am I left to vote?
This is something that's made me think. You wanted to vote out a low poster D1 and honed in on me and malus. Fair enough.

But even though malus fit your requirements to vote out, you didn't do it until there were like 15 minutes to go, even when he was a leading wagon. Why didn't you jump sooner? And why try to make a wagon for me with half an hour to go? Genuine question, not trying to be funny.

Also, why single out me and malus when people like zipped, jman, and LP (obvs) were also low voters? If I'm honest, it sounds like we were convenient cover for you.

Also also, where's your head on HP. You even said at day end that he didn't look great.
HP has 5 minutes to do something. This EoD from him has been dreadful to say the very least.
That EOD for him is still dreadful now, even more so, so what are your thoughts on him at this moment?

You've also had to go on the defensive today, so where are you looking? Ephi and...?
 

Neki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,793
This is something that's made me think. You wanted to vote out a low poster D1 and honed in on me and malus. Fair enough.

But even though malus fit your requirements to vote out, you didn't do it until there were like 15 minutes to go, even when he was a leading wagon. Why didn't you jump sooner? And why try to make a wagon for me with half an hour to go? Genuine question, not trying to be funny.

Also, why single out me and malus when people like zipped, jman, and LP (obvs) were also low voters? If I'm honest, it sounds like we were convenient cover for you.

Also also, where's your head on HP. You even said at day end that he didn't look great.

That EOD for him is still dreadful now, even more so, so what are your thoughts on him at this moment?

You've also had to go on the defensive today, so where are you looking? Ephi and...?

I mean I wasn't around until EoD very late, I wasn't free until maybe an hour before EoD and I had to read all the posts before I posted anything. I always vote late in the day, that's been my meta regardless of if you think I'm town or scum. I like the insight LP gives so I gave him a pass on D1 since I've seen his play past D1 and I don't mind it. Zipped and jman were low posters too but they were not engaging with the game at all. Jman was purposely being vague and Zipped had a lazy vote on Jman. Voting out those two would meet my need for low vote requirement but no one seemed interested in going there.

I've already explained how I feel about HP multiple times. I think he played it as a panicked town at worst and his EoD was NAI at best given he gets very angry easily. I'd be surprised if he flipped scum and I don't like this reasoning of shotgunning people based on a scum flip, that's premature.

I've went on the defensive because I've gotten two non votes on me because I decided to go on a wagon instead of hiding on a lazy vote. If you want to vote me for trying solve and push different angles, by all means, vote me off.
 
Nov 2, 2017
1,075
I've went on the defensive because I've gotten two non votes on me because I decided to go on a wagon instead of hiding on a lazy vote. If you want to vote me for trying solve and push different angles, by all means, vote me off.
Sorry, the end of my post was to try and actually engage with you instead of just spend all day accusing you. I want you to have that opportunity to get your thoughts out there in case you are town and we are wrong. That's all.

So where would you want to look today? Is there anyone other than Ephi?
 

Neki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,793
And yes I'd most likely go Ephi, she hasn't really solved or probed any hard for the past two days and it's not giving me good vibes. The fact that people aren't looking at other angles besides HP worries me greatly because it just gives me the idea that scum is staying quiet since we haven't come close to finding any of them. We have lots of vote movement at EoD, we had four possible wagons and no one is willing to put down any reads or vote analysis?

I can't say much about anyone else given no one besides ATP, wee and Fate haven't posted anything substantial for me to really talk about. I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts so far but it's been a quiet day.

If someone can give me a stronger case besides Ephi or HP I'd consider going there but no one has written anything yet.
 
Nov 2, 2017
1,075
And yes I'd most likely go Ephi, she hasn't really solved or probed any hard for the past two days and it's not giving me good vibes. The fact that people aren't looking at other angles besides HP worries me greatly because it just gives me the idea that scum is staying quiet since we haven't come close to finding any of them. We have lots of vote movement at EoD, we had four possible wagons and no one is willing to put down any reads or vote analysis?

I can't say much about anyone else given no one besides ATP, wee and Fate haven't posted anything substantial for me to really talk about. I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts so far but it's been a quiet day.

If someone can give me a stronger case besides Ephi or HP I'd consider going there but no one has written anything yet.
I missed someone from my list of low posters. Royal Flush - what did you think of them D1? What do you think of them now?
 

Neki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,793
I missed someone from my list of low posters. Royal Flush - what did you think of them D1? What do you think of them now?
I mean at this point we have like 5 posts of total substance from them, I'm not sure what conclusions we can draw. We should have really gone for someone like that on D1 but no one had the appetite for it.
 

Ephidel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,738
I mean at this point we have like 5 posts of total substance from them, I'm not sure what conclusions we can draw. We should have really gone for someone like that on D1 but no one had the appetite for it.
He had few posts, yes, but he took stances and put down clear thoughts in them. It's one of the reasons I said he was one of the people I wouldn't want to vote there yesterday.

Thinking about his activity, I am going to note that Wee defended him from activity comments yesterday when I think the only person who'd actually commented on it at that time was Fate a couple of pages earlier.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,914
Maryland
Call it easy if you like, but when I see a logical player like yourself post an illogical defense of HP I find that suspect.

Also this a more of a meta read, but Zipped's posts today feel like town!Zipped.
You have played with me for one game, and a cult game at that. So the basis of comparison isn't huge.

Second, if you felt I always behaved logically, consider me surprised. I explicitly eschewed logic to press on EC, Vere, and Blarg to see how they responded to questioning.

Third, I don't think these games acknowledge the downside of meta-reads. The concept that the actions of players can be compared to their prior games' town or mafia actions assumes two things. First, that they're incapable of subtlety to obfuscate their behavior irrespective of alignment. Second, that they're incapable of learning and adjusting from past play. Both of these lie on a spectrum of naiveté and hubris, IMO.

Finally, I was town last game, and am town this game too.