Star Trek: The Next Generation Mafia |OT| The First Duty Of Every Starfleet Officer Is To The Truth (Except In Mafia)

FateShirou · Oct 2, 2021

HPSauce said:
I know it's hard to believe but I genuinely want out of the game

either replace out or selfvote
seriously this is getting annoying

Fanto · Oct 2, 2021

==== FINAL DAY 5 VOTES ====
Day Start - Day End

Royal_Flush (6 votes)
FateShirou - #2,362
HPSauce - #2,418
Verelios - #2,456
Zippedpinhead - #2,470
Lone_Prodigy - #2,496
Natiko - #2,498

HPSauce (4 votes)
BoJack Horseman - #2,112
Randomless - #2,259
~~Royal_Flush - #2,261~~ #2,388
Royal_Flush - #2,388
Ephidel - #2,490

Lone_Prodigy (1 votes)
~~Zippedpinhead - #2,126~~ #2,255
malus - #2,358

FateShirou (0 votes)
~~Royal_Flush - #2,388~~ #2,388
~~Verelios - #2,409~~ #2,456

Natiko (0 votes)
~~Ephidel - #2,415~~ #2,490

Ephidel (0 votes)
~~Natiko - #2,303~~ #2,498

Post Counts:
FateShirou: 94 Natiko: 73 Verelios: 72 Zippedpinhead: 60 Randomless: 45 Royal_Flush: 33 Ephidel: 28 Lone_Prodigy: 26 BoJack Horseman: 24 HPSauce: 15 malus: 12

Click here to go to the Vote Tool!

Fanto · Oct 2, 2021

Royal_Flush has died!

Welcome to Star Trek: The Next Generation Mafia!

You are Lursa, the 2-Shot Role Cop and 2-Shot Messenger, and are aligned with the Romulans (Mafia).

As a member of the House of Duras, you and your sister are always looking for ways to gain power in the Klingon Empire and disrupt their alliance with the Federation, even if it means working with the Romulans.

Twice during the game at night, you may submit the command Investigate: Player Name to learn that player's role name.

In addition, twice during the game at night, you may also submit the command Message: Player Name, Message to send a message of your choosing to your target.

You may only submit one of these commands each night.

You may also perform the Mafia faction kill with the command Kill: Player Name at night.

The Mafia thread is here: [redacted]

The game thread is here: https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...ficer-is-to-the-truth-except-in-mafia.488278/

You will win the game when the Mafia controls a majority of the votes or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

NIGHT 5 BEGINS

Night actions are due 2 hours before day start.

Day 6 will begin in:

Fanto · Oct 3, 2021

Night actions will lock in about 1 hour.

Fanto · Oct 3, 2021

Night actions are now locked.

Fanto · Oct 3, 2021

Bojack Horseman has died!

Welcome to Star Trek: The Next Generation Mafia!

You are Captain Jean Luc Picard, the 2-Shot Neighborizer, and are aligned with the Federation (Town).

As captain of the starship Enterprise, you enjoy the luxury of having your own Ready Room, where you can invite your crew to chat with you about your mission, and retire from the bridge for some peace and quiet.

Twice during the game at night, you can submit the command Make It So: Player Name to permanently invite your target to your Ready Room the following day.

In addition, you also have a Captain Picard costume account, which you will use to access and post in your Ready Room thread.

Account Name: Captain Picard
Account Password: [redacted]

Your Ready Room thread is here: [redacted]

The game thread is here: https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...ficer-is-to-the-truth-except-in-mafia.488278/

You will win the game when all threats to the Federation have been eliminated.

DAY 6 BEGINS

Vote Tool:

https://vote.fireblend.com/488278/#

Majority is 5

Day 6 will end in:

Lone_Prodigy · Oct 3, 2021

Zipped plz

Natiko · Oct 3, 2021

VOTE: Rando

Yesterday was glorious

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

I think Nat has been acting disingenuous and has been posting in bad faith. I'll go over a few separate points as to why here.

====================================================

I believe Nat's vote on Royal was a bus. Nat has been strongly defending HP his entire time in the game so far. Swinging the vote over to HP would blow his cover. It's very interesting how this exact same scenario occurred in The Thing, where scum!Nat swore up and down that he backed HP on D2, but at EoD Nat voted HP to self-pres and save himself from elimination. This ultimately resulted in his death by vig shot that night. I don't think Nat would make the same mistake twice, so instead here he went for the hard bus on Royal to get some much needed town cred after jman gave him little to work with.

Nat's first defense of HP:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-38#post-74303826

He downplays the possibility of both HP and Blarg being scum. I disagree with him here, because that Blarg wagon seems quite clean and happened very quickly. If LP is town, his claim would not necessarily be expected by the scum team and there wouldn't be enough time for them to react, if they were even around.

More defense denying the possibility of both Blarg and HP being scum:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-39#post-74307492

Then there's this very weird defense of HP based on SD2 that does not hold up under scrutiny. Nat's point is just plain inaccurate. I've already rebuked this point in earlier posts so I will not re-litigate it, but anyone can read the SD2 thread and see that Nat's point on HP's activity is wrong.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-39#post-74308602

Another defense of HP, stating that disinterested players are likely town:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-50#post-74522136

It's funny, because he made the exact opposite argument in SD2 towards HP. Additionally, Geno was a great example of a disaffected scum player in the very same game taking advantage of the same thing. I believe that being disinterested is NAI. People can have trouble in their personal life as town or scum. People can be frustrated with how games are going as town or scum. I think Nat knows this but he's pushing an agenda here.

Another defense of HP:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-50#post-74522412

Comparing Blarg to HP once again and saying how Blarg is just "Built Different (TM)". I feel like this post is disingenuous, because it completely disregards the possibility that HP is acting up for the main thread but is coordinated and cool in the scum thread. Do I personally believe that is happening? Not exactly, but it's a possibility that Nat conveniently leaves out. When HP claimed he was sick from the covid vaccine sideeffects in Mafioso, he actually was sick, but he still managed to post in scum chat, at least a little. A similar situation here is not an impossibility.

Nat has all these posts defending HP. The two leading wagons D5 were HP and Royal, and Nat was in need of some town cred. Going for HP would revert back on all the defense he has previously made, which would look mighty sus. If HP is town, Nat voting there would look extremely bad for Nat. Nat was basically forced to either bus Royal or vote offwagon, but voting offwagon wouldn't have given any town cred. I think a lot of his arguments defending HP are disingenuous and don't capture the full picture, but I don't think that necessarily says anything about HP's alignment. Scum!Nat could be defending either town!HP or scum!HP.

=================================================

Nat whined about the quietness of the game and how nobody is voting:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-47#post-74487186

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74516832

However, when I posted attempting to solve, Nat trashed my reasoning:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74521368

Additionally as Ephi already said, Nat was sitting there with Vere while whining about this, and was not making any attempts to solve or conversate on his own. I believe Shirou also made a post saying to the effect of "why don't you solve the game if you're so great then?". This behaviour by Nat seems intended to depress town and lower motivation, which is exactly what scum wants. Nat similarly trashed a large post by Ephi which I personally found rather great, and his arguments against it were similarly disingenuous, but I will get to that later.

===================================================

The weirdness with the situation surrounding anex is another key point in my case against Nat. I don't want to repeat myself so I will link my prior post here:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-48#post-74515299

Essentially, Nat's arguments against anex felt like he knew he was going to flip town and was doing anything he could to avoid voting for him until he was "convinced" by town.

=====================================================

There's this weird defense of jman's and his own claim:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-44#post-74410311

If you're going to claim Miller after your predecessor did not, whether that's a fake claim or not, doing it right when you sub in is your best shot. jman is known for wild gambits, so you could absolutely come in as scum and go "Oh that silly jman, gambiting again as town. I'm town tho guiz trust me". I think the claim is completely NAI for the record, I just think this defense of it is suspect.

======================================================

Nat downplayed the possible importance of Vere's role:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-43#post-74407107

This game has been really weird so far, with scum flipping with outright town roles and a town flipping with an outright scum role. It's entirely possible that the flavour cop is more powerful than we expect, especially considering the only other confirmed invest role town had was a 1-shot parity cop. Downplaying the potential importance of this role is giving me The Thing vibes, where the scum team downplayed the importance of contact tracing in locating scum. It's possible that Vere's role is just fluff but like I said previously, I have reason to believe it is not based on my role.

=======================================================

I don't buy that Nat didn't realize it was -1 from turbo when he voted:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-50#post-74522700

I have read many a scum chat featuring Nat from re-reading old games. He is extremely detail oriented when he wants to be. The EoD D5 went by quickly, but it was not that quick. This reads to me like Nat knowing how the flip will go but appearing as an "accidental" very good result. Who cares about a turbo if we kill scum, right?

=======================================================

Going back to the Ephi post I previously talked about:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74517987

I think this post is excellent. Ephi really captures how Nat is being very selective with what he is choosing to read and not read. After reading this post, I was like "okay Ephi is town" and then I looked at the vote tool and realized this could be a very elaborate OMGUS because Nat voted Ephi first

Nat then defends himself following this post by Ephi:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74518512

This defense trashes Ephi's argument for being a "feels" read. Ephi herself has a line in the post at the end that says it is a feels read, but I would personally disagree with both Nat and Ephi herself about her arguments here. This post includes actual examples of Nat's behaviour, they just aren't quoted or linked, such as the references to Nat's postings about jman and anex. Once again I am disagreeing with how Nat is responding to and contextualizing arguments. As a bonus, in this same post he also boils down my reasoning for voting HP into "will solve LP" which is merely one component of that entire post of reasoning. Once again, feels disingenuous. It feels like he's talking down instead of meeting a fellow townie where they are at.

=======================================================

As a final point of interest, I went back and read through jman's posts in Mario Mini and Fantasy Star (yes I know Fantasy Star was an unconventional game). I did this to try and get a better handle on jman's scum game. I feel like he plays pretty similarly as scum and town, except he posts a bit less as scum and is less prone to gambits. He did not post a ton this game before subbing out, and he did the one, seemingly inconsequential, gambit. I feel like everyone knows jman's propensity for gambits at this point, so I could absolutely see a scum team telling him to throw out a D1 "gambit" for some town cred early. Taking advantage of your own meta is a powerful tool.

======================================================

So there you have it. I think Nat is scum because he is floating along and making disingenuous arguments, downplaying other players. His defenses of HP and himself/jman don't really hold up under scrutiny.

Vote: Natiko

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

Scum killing BoJack is a framejob on me. Now he is gone and can't verify my role claim.

Nat immediately going for me is overplaying his hand.

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

I think it should be very obvious after yesterday that scum is within Rando, Ephi or Fate.

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

Verelios who did you scan yesterday?

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

Randomless said:
Verelios who did you scan yesterday?

I scanned Ephi.

Lone_Prodigy · Oct 3, 2021

You know that yesterday would've been 5-5 with malus the tiebreaker away for EoD? I think Ephi and Random look really bad here. Ephi pushing the tie as if it's D1 and Random defending Royal by saying he was away (even if he himself said he didn't have a particularly important role).

If there's a deep wolf, it's Fate. I can see a world where Royal role cops me and then scum leaves me alone so there's no way to test Fate's claim without voting me first. Also puts into doubt the other protective roles.

Zippedpinhead · Oct 3, 2021

Lone_Prodigy said:
Zipped plz

Well it clears up the borg locutus thing I had.

but hey look at that a Klingon in league with the romulan mafia.

now who said everyone had to be romulan?

Ephidel said:
My clairvoyance has stopped Zipped from blowing his time trying to convince you the Borg are assimilating us, I consider that a result

And I didn't say there are no cults, I said there are no recruiting abilities.
I even thought there was a chance Bo inviting people into his inner circle would count for that until I got my no.

More seriously though, I can't do anything about the fact I asked a question at night that then had its answer revealed the following day. That's just bad luck.

My answer for last night is 1Y.
If or when I eventually flip you'll understand why I'm not revealing what I asked at this specific moment in time. It might give someone a laugh that I asked it though.

Ephidel.

i never once said that if we had a borg scum character it was a cult, I merely presented an option where a character's costume could be a stand in for another character.

i think you spent a lot of effort to convince people that there couldn't be anyone but romulans on the scum team

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

I'm currently wondering why Royal had a flavor cop shot. That seems weird unless there's a scum role that can use it.

Zippedpinhead · Oct 3, 2021

Verelios said:
I'm currently wondering why Royal had a flavor cop shot. That seems weird unless there's a scum role that can use it.

To what end though, outside of giving scum a vague idea of role priority for death.

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

Verelios said:
I'm currently wondering why Royal had a flavor cop shot. That seems weird unless there's a scum role that can use it.

It says role name. I think if you scanned BoJack for instance, you would get "2-Shot Neighbourizer" and not "Picard".

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

Randomless said:
I think Nat has been acting disingenuous and has been posting in bad faith. I'll go over a few separate points as to why here.

====================================================

I believe Nat's vote on Royal was a bus. Nat has been strongly defending HP his entire time in the game so far. Swinging the vote over to HP would blow his cover. It's very interesting how this exact same scenario occurred in The Thing, where scum!Nat swore up and down that he backed HP on D2, but at EoD Nat voted HP to self-pres and save himself from elimination. This ultimately resulted in his death by vig shot that night. I don't think Nat would make the same mistake twice, so instead here he went for the hard bus on Royal to get some much needed town cred after jman gave him little to work with.

Nat's first defense of HP:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-38#post-74303826

He downplays the possibility of both HP and Blarg being scum. I disagree with him here, because that Blarg wagon seems quite clean and happened very quickly. If LP is town, his claim would not necessarily be expected by the scum team and there wouldn't be enough time for them to react, if they were even around.

More defense denying the possibility of both Blarg and HP being scum:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-39#post-74307492

Then there's this very weird defense of HP based on SD2 that does not hold up under scrutiny. Nat's point is just plain inaccurate. I've already rebuked this point in earlier posts so I will not re-litigate it, but anyone can read the SD2 thread and see that Nat's point on HP's activity is wrong.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-39#post-74308602

Another defense of HP, stating that disinterested players are likely town:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-50#post-74522136

It's funny, because he made the exact opposite argument in SD2 towards HP. Additionally, Geno was a great example of a disaffected scum player in the very same game taking advantage of the same thing. I believe that being disinterested is NAI. People can have trouble in their personal life as town or scum. People can be frustrated with how games are going as town or scum. I think Nat knows this but he's pushing an agenda here.

Another defense of HP:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-50#post-74522412

Comparing Blarg to HP once again and saying how Blarg is just "Built Different (TM)". I feel like this post is disingenuous, because it completely disregards the possibility that HP is acting up for the main thread but is coordinated and cool in the scum thread. Do I personally believe that is happening? Not exactly, but it's a possibility that Nat conveniently leaves out. When HP claimed he was sick from the covid vaccine sideeffects in Mafioso, he actually was sick, but he still managed to post in scum chat, at least a little. A similar situation here is not an impossibility.

Nat has all these posts defending HP. The two leading wagons D5 were HP and Royal, and Nat was in need of some town cred. Going for HP would revert back on all the defense he has previously made, which would look mighty sus. If HP is town, Nat voting there would look extremely bad for Nat. Nat was basically forced to either bus Royal or vote offwagon, but voting offwagon wouldn't have given any town cred. I think a lot of his arguments defending HP are disingenuous and don't capture the full picture, but I don't think that necessarily says anything about HP's alignment. Scum!Nat could be defending either town!HP or scum!HP.

=================================================

Nat whined about the quietness of the game and how nobody is voting:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-47#post-74487186

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74516832

However, when I posted attempting to solve, Nat trashed my reasoning:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74521368

Additionally as Ephi already said, Nat was sitting there with Vere while whining about this, and was not making any attempts to solve or conversate on his own. I believe Shirou also made a post saying to the effect of "why don't you solve the game if you're so great then?". This behaviour by Nat seems intended to depress town and lower motivation, which is exactly what scum wants. Nat similarly trashed a large post by Ephi which I personally found rather great, and his arguments against it were similarly disingenuous, but I will get to that later.

===================================================

The weirdness with the situation surrounding anex is another key point in my case against Nat. I don't want to repeat myself so I will link my prior post here:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-48#post-74515299

Essentially, Nat's arguments against anex felt like he knew he was going to flip town and was doing anything he could to avoid voting for him until he was "convinced" by town.

=====================================================

There's this weird defense of jman's and his own claim:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-44#post-74410311

If you're going to claim Miller after your predecessor did not, whether that's a fake claim or not, doing it right when you sub in is your best shot. jman is known for wild gambits, so you could absolutely come in as scum and go "Oh that silly jman, gambiting again as town. I'm town tho guiz trust me". I think the claim is completely NAI for the record, I just think this defense of it is suspect.

======================================================

Nat downplayed the possible importance of Vere's role:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-43#post-74407107

This game has been really weird so far, with scum flipping with outright town roles and a town flipping with an outright scum role. It's entirely possible that the flavour cop is more powerful than we expect, especially considering the only other confirmed invest role town had was a 1-shot parity cop. Downplaying the potential importance of this role is giving me The Thing vibes, where the scum team downplayed the importance of contact tracing in locating scum. It's possible that Vere's role is just fluff but like I said previously, I have reason to believe it is not based on my role.

=======================================================

I don't buy that Nat didn't realize it was -1 from turbo when he voted:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-50#post-74522700

I have read many a scum chat featuring Nat from re-reading old games. He is extremely detail oriented when he wants to be. The EoD D5 went by quickly, but it was not that quick. This reads to me like Nat knowing how the flip will go but appearing as an "accidental" very good result. Who cares about a turbo if we kill scum, right?

=======================================================

Going back to the Ephi post I previously talked about:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74517987

I think this post is excellent. Ephi really captures how Nat is being very selective with what he is choosing to read and not read. After reading this post, I was like "okay Ephi is town" and then I looked at the vote tool and realized this could be a very elaborate OMGUS because Nat voted Ephi first

Nat then defends himself following this post by Ephi:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74518512

This defense trashes Ephi's argument for being a "feels" read. Ephi herself has a line in the post at the end that says it is a feels read, but I would personally disagree with both Nat and Ephi herself about her arguments here. This post includes actual examples of Nat's behaviour, they just aren't quoted or linked, such as the references to Nat's postings about jman and anex. Once again I am disagreeing with how Nat is responding to and contextualizing arguments. As a bonus, in this same post he also boils down my reasoning for voting HP into "will solve LP" which is merely one component of that entire post of reasoning. Once again, feels disingenuous. It feels like he's talking down instead of meeting a fellow townie where they are at.

=======================================================

As a final point of interest, I went back and read through jman's posts in Mario Mini and Fantasy Star (yes I know Fantasy Star was an unconventional game). I did this to try and get a better handle on jman's scum game. I feel like he plays pretty similarly as scum and town, except he posts a bit less as scum and is less prone to gambits. He did not post a ton this game before subbing out, and he did the one, seemingly inconsequential, gambit. I feel like everyone knows jman's propensity for gambits at this point, so I could absolutely see a scum team telling him to throw out a D1 "gambit" for some town cred early. Taking advantage of your own meta is a powerful tool.

======================================================

So there you have it. I think Nat is scum because he is floating along and making disingenuous arguments, downplaying other players. His defenses of HP and himself/jman don't really hold up under scrutiny.

Vote: Natiko

Does a scum Nat hammer with 7 minutes left? With how much the vote could swing, I'm not buying it.

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

Zippedpinhead said:
To what end though, outside of giving scum a vague idea of role priority for death.

Randomless said:
It says role name. I think if you scanned BoJack for instance, you would get "2-Shot Neighbourizer" and not "Picard".

Oh, okay, yeah that makes much more sense. So he's a role cop.

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

But I really want to hear from Ephidel why she was so frantic yesterday, and FateShirou why he began discouraging people from voting Royal close to EoD but stayed on himself.

Oh, and Randomless

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

Verelios said:
Does a scum Nat hammer with 7 minutes left? With how much the vote could swing, I'm not buying it.

Absolutely. Scum!Nat has set up Ephi and myself for the fall. Look at what folks are already discussing today. That's 2 mis-elims, and we all know LP is out of shots so there's going to be no saving going on. If Zipped is being truthful about being a bodyguard, which I have no reason to doubt, he'll be one of the next 2 night kills. That brings it down to 5 players and it's ELo, or scum just wins if there's actually 3 of them remaining.

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

It cut off. Randomless it kind of eats my goat that you haven't mentioned Ephi being suss today, with how you two were in sync yesterday. At least some suspicion after Royal flipped.

FateShirou · Oct 3, 2021

Randomless said:
we all know LP is out of shots so there's going to be no saving going on.

what did we find this out?

Verelios said:
@FateShirou why he began discouraging people from voting Royal close to EoD

i was discouraging people from moving off royal, i was stating the fact they werent around for EoD and we ended up in another accidental hammer, worked out for us

Lone_Prodigy · Oct 3, 2021

Royal_Flush said:
Ephi tries to solve according to my memory. If you had been paying attention I had a good feeling there the whole game.

If HP is Town I go to L_P next. You are somewhat entangled with L_P given your partial claim, but I'd be okay with flipping you anywhere inbetween this process.

Royal defending Ephi.

Royal_Flush said:
I Town-read Ephidel early in the game. I can't remember a single thing of her this day phase, but I'll let her slide on my earlier read for a bit. Would not vote there anytime soon unless something sets of a flag.

I townread Bojack both on behavior as well as role. There's also the early Blarg-bunch (malus, wee, bojack again) which I will not vote anytime soon. malus had one post that set off some flags with me, has a role that seems more Town than Scum and other than that seemed pretty himself. wee's claim of a parity cop would be quite the bold fake claim for Scum.

I don't Scumread Verelios which is a bad sign. Town Vere usually is full of red flags for me, but it's been a while since my last game. not my focus right now, will revisit later.

Don't really know what to think of Anex. Randomless looks okay, but I barely remember Yuta or him, despite him posting a lot (and I know at least the past couple of hours his posts weren't completely meaningles, so that's on me not focusing enough). Zipped completely null...

L_P's "I played sloppy on purpose" seems bad and I'm not sure I like his post-claim "not sloppy" playstyle a lot more...

In general I was barely there the first 3 phases (on vacation and volunteering at our federal elections) so while I think I rememeber most of the big things I often only glanced over the thread and didn't pick up on the more subtle stuff. The thing to do would be to reread the whole thread, but I'm with you on that endevour :P

Reads list where he town reads Ephi and posts null reads on Randomless and Zipped.

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

Randomless said:
Absolutely. Scum!Nat has set up Ephi and myself for the fall. Look at what folks are already discussing today. That's 2 mis-elims, and we all know LP is out of shots so there's going to be no saving going on. If Zipped is being truthful about being a bodyguard, which I have no reason to doubt, he'll be one of the next 2 night kills. That brings it down to 5 players and it's ELo, or scum just wins if there's actually 3 of them remaining.

So you're on the Ephi is town train. Okay.

I want Ephi today. Fuck that.

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

Verelios said:
It cut off. Randomless it kind of eats my goat that you haven't mentioned Ephi being suss today, with how you two were in sync yesterday. At least some suspicion after Royal flipped.

I feel better about Ephi after yesterday, actually. I won't be voting her today. I think her post against Nat was dead on.

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

FateShirou said:
what did we find this out?

Come on Shirou, what do you think "maximize my usefulness by claiming D4" means?

Zippedpinhead · Oct 3, 2021

Verelios said:
Does a scum Nat hammer with 7 minutes left? With how much the vote could swing, I'm not buying it.

Yeah I can't help but feel lucky we got the Right target yesterday.

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

FateShirou said:
what did we find this out?

i was discouraging people from moving off royal, i was stating the fact they werent around for EoD and we ended up in another accidental hammer, worked out for us

Word?

FateShirou said:
im glad your around to show us how to git gud

ok, how do you feel about us sitting around and waiting for goodness what? and most of us saying we will switch to royal?

are you going to vote?
30 mins left bud

FateShirou said:
if you are solving by a players desire to be active and help towards solving then why isnt HP the one getting booted
do you think royal is solving?
do you think ephidel is an unconfident town or just scum trying not to trip overthemseleves with pushes/scum reads

FateShirou said:
do you expect royal to be back? you say its too much protection, than what you think im lying ? do you think im playing a scum game

FateShirou said:
we can dicuss game balancing when this is all over
right now we got 24 mins till EoD
HP vs Royal
which one of them is solving the game and which isnt
amph got done in with their role, so disregeard that

FateShirou said:
are you going to stay on royal then?
HP? ephidel? me?
where will you go next vere

FateShirou said:
what is a royal flip going to give you zipped

because of their not returning to thread for EoD

look at the way blarg played
i think you are overestiminating the pressure of the scum team, do you think scum team wont have told blarg to kick it up a bit at day 3 at least?

Word? Am I supposed to be blind or stupid in this timeline?

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

Randomless said:
I feel better about Ephi after yesterday, actually. I won't be voting her today. I think her post against Nat was dead on.

You feel better after she actually tied up scum with HP and then said it merrily.

FateShirou · Oct 3, 2021

Verelios said:
Word? Am I supposed to be blind or stupid in this timeline?

both? congrats you find my posts, if you got the meaning i was trying to save royal by being on their ass the whole game, then idk what to tell you

Randomless said:
Come on Shirou, what do you think "maximize my usefulness by claiming D4" means?

dude i dont give a shit, unless you know LP is out of shots then say that
otherwise you are just making things easier for scum

HPSauce · Oct 3, 2021

FateShirou said:
both? congrats you find my posts, if you got the meaning i was trying to save royal by being on their ass the whole game, then idk what to tell you

You clearly wanted me to be the vote tho lol

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

FateShirou said:
both? congrats you find my posts, if you got the meaning i was trying to save royal by being on their ass the whole game, then idk what to tell you

dude i dont give a shit, unless you know LP is out of shots then say that
otherwise you are just making things easier for scum

I think the correct meaning is you're full of shit Fate. If you were town then I'd think you'd own up to it.

FateShirou · Oct 3, 2021

HPSauce said:
You clearly wanted me to be the vote tho lol

well duh
why the hell would i want your sorry ass in a potential mylo

Verelios said:
I think the correct meaning is you're full of shit Fate. If you were town then I'd think you'd own up to it.

ok bud

Natiko · Oct 3, 2021

The sweet smell of desperation. Well, let's do this thing.

Randomless said:
I think Nat has been acting disingenuous and has been posting in bad faith. I'll go over a few separate points as to why here.

====================================================

I believe Nat's vote on Royal was a bus. Nat has been strongly defending HP his entire time in the game so far. Swinging the vote over to HP would blow his cover. It's very interesting how this exact same scenario occurred in The Thing, where scum!Nat swore up and down that he backed HP on D2, but at EoD Nat voted HP to self-pres and save himself from elimination. This ultimately resulted in his death by vig shot that night. I don't think Nat would make the same mistake twice, so instead here he went for the hard bus on Royal to get some much needed town cred after jman gave him little to work with.

Bad argument, if I'm going for a hard bus on Royal I push a scum read there much harder. I present more evidence, I get on the wagon early. I mentioned pretty early I would move to Royal if Ephi didn't take off, but I didn't even present a strong case. I literally chalked it up to thinking HP was town and that Royal was in the POE. I would do better to make myself look good if I was bussing - go look at me bussing in SD2 since you love to reference that game.

Nat's first defense of HP:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-38#post-74303826

He downplays the possibility of both HP and Blarg being scum. I disagree with him here, because that Blarg wagon seems quite clean and happened very quickly. If LP is town, his claim would not necessarily be expected by the scum team and there wouldn't be enough time for them to react, if they were even around.

More defense denying the possibility of both Blarg and HP being scum:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-39#post-74307492

So I'm scum here because...we disagree on HP? This entire argument boils down to me and HP being scum together then. Why not bus HP who was much more in contention than Royal?

Then there's this very weird defense of HP based on SD2 that does not hold up under scrutiny. Nat's point is just plain inaccurate. I've already rebuked this point in earlier posts so I will not re-litigate it, but anyone can read the SD2 thread and see that Nat's point on HP's activity is wrong.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-39#post-74308602

Yes, we disagree here. I can go literally grab the specific posts of defeatism from HP in SD2.

Another defense of HP, stating that disinterested players are likely town:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-50#post-74522136

It's funny, because he made the exact opposite argument in SD2 towards HP. Additionally, Geno was a great example of a disaffected scum player in the very same game taking advantage of the same thing. I believe that being disinterested is NAI. People can have trouble in their personal life as town or scum. People can be frustrated with how games are going as town or scum. I think Nat knows this but he's pushing an agenda here.

Guess what - I made the exact opposite argument in SD2... BECAUSE I WAS ACTUALLY SCUM IN THAT GAME lol Do better

Another defense of HP:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-50#post-74522412

Comparing Blarg to HP once again and saying how Blarg is just "Built Different (TM)". I feel like this post is disingenuous, because it completely disregards the possibility that HP is acting up for the main thread but is coordinated and cool in the scum thread. Do I personally believe that is happening? Not exactly, but it's a possibility that Nat conveniently leaves out. When HP claimed he was sick from the covid vaccine sideeffects in Mafioso, he actually was sick, but he still managed to post in scum chat, at least a little. A similar situation here is not an impossibility.

Nat has all these posts defending HP. The two leading wagons D5 were HP and Royal, and Nat was in need of some town cred. Going for HP would revert back on all the defense he has previously made, which would look mighty sus. If HP is town, Nat voting there would look extremely bad for Nat. Nat was basically forced to either bus Royal or vote offwagon, but voting offwagon wouldn't have given any town cred. I think a lot of his arguments defending HP are disingenuous and don't capture the full picture, but I don't think that necessarily says anything about HP's alignment. Scum!Nat could be defending either town!HP or scum!HP.

Ah yes, be sure to leave open the possibility that HP could be scum or town. "Look how scummy Nat is for doing this! Even though I'm also saying doing this could happen in any scenario!"

=================================================

Nat whined about the quietness of the game and how nobody is voting:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-47#post-74487186

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74516832

However, when I posted attempting to solve, Nat trashed my reasoning:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74521368

Additionally as Ephi already said, Nat was sitting there with Vere while whining about this, and was not making any attempts to solve or conversate on his own. I believe Shirou also made a post saying to the effect of "why don't you solve the game if you're so great then?". This behaviour by Nat seems intended to depress town and lower motivation, which is exactly what scum wants. Nat similarly trashed a large post by Ephi which I personally found rather great, and his arguments against it were similarly disingenuous, but I will get to that later.

===================================================

I'm a dick when I play mafia, get used to it. Yeah - I trashed your reasoning because it was literally framed as giving info on wagonomics. A push you were making on a player who I did and continue to feel is just town. Even you are now hedging - "oh this could be either alignment from HP", but suddenly that I pushed for better reasoning.. an argument that helped successfully vote out scum, it's bad. Okay

The weirdness with the situation surrounding anex is another key point in my case against Nat. I don't want to repeat myself so I will link my prior post here:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-48#post-74515299

Essentially, Nat's arguments against anex felt like he knew he was going to flip town and was doing anything he could to avoid voting for him until he was "convinced" by town.

=====================================================

I had just subbed into the game that day and spent most of it trying to acclimate. The main piece of info that swayed me to vote for Anex was that Bojack had claimed to be blocked, and I think in most situations I probably still would've voted him there over trusting my gut. Shit happens, I'm not some infallible monolith of a town player.

There's this weird defense of jman's and his own claim:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-44#post-74410311

If you're going to claim Miller after your predecessor did not, whether that's a fake claim or not, doing it right when you sub in is your best shot. jman is known for wild gambits, so you could absolutely come in as scum and go "Oh that silly jman, gambiting again as town. I'm town tho guiz trust me". I think the claim is completely NAI for the record, I just think this defense of it is suspect.

======================================================

Okay, but look at what we have from flipped mafia so far. Blarg who from everything people has said was fucking around and not playing. Royal who spent most of the game not playing before trying to turn it on last phase. I sub in and... the mafia team has this sure fire plan that I read and agree to immediately upon subbing in instead of just going with jman's vague claim that I easily could have built upon if needed, at a time when Jman/myself were literally under no heat?

Nat downplayed the possible importance of Vere's role:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-43#post-74407107

This game has been really weird so far, with scum flipping with outright town roles and a town flipping with an outright scum role. It's entirely possible that the flavour cop is more powerful than we expect, especially considering the only other confirmed invest role town had was a 1-shot parity cop. Downplaying the potential importance of this role is giving me The Thing vibes, where the scum team downplayed the importance of contact tracing in locating scum. It's possible that Vere's role is just fluff but like I said previously, I have reason to believe it is not based on my role.

=======================================================

I didn't say it had no utility, I just said I doubt it's going to be a smoking gun at this point. I do think it's more than a dog sniffer, but matching personalities up is going to be subjective to an extent.

I don't buy that Nat didn't realize it was -1 from turbo when he voted:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-50#post-74522700

I have read many a scum chat featuring Nat from re-reading old games. He is extremely detail oriented when he wants to be. The EoD D5 went by quickly, but it was not that quick. This reads to me like Nat knowing how the flip will go but appearing as an "accidental" very good result. Who cares about a turbo if we kill scum, right?

=======================================================

God you're desperate, the vote before mine was separated by seconds at best and has the exact same minute timestamp.

Going back to the Ephi post I previously talked about:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74517987

I think this post is excellent. Ephi really captures how Nat is being very selective with what he is choosing to read and not read. After reading this post, I was like "okay Ephi is town" and then I looked at the vote tool and realized this could be a very elaborate OMGUS because Nat voted Ephi first

Nat then defends himself following this post by Ephi:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/st...-except-in-mafia.488278/page-49#post-74518512

This defense trashes Ephi's argument for being a "feels" read. Ephi herself has a line in the post at the end that says it is a feels read, but I would personally disagree with both Nat and Ephi herself about her arguments here. This post includes actual examples of Nat's behaviour, they just aren't quoted or linked, such as the references to Nat's postings about jman and anex. Once again I am disagreeing with how Nat is responding to and contextualizing arguments. As a bonus, in this same post he also boils down my reasoning for voting HP into "will solve LP" which is merely one component of that entire post of reasoning. Once again, feels disingenuous. It feels like he's talking down instead of meeting a fellow townie where they are at.

=======================================================

I've nothing more to say on me not reading back on the game. I had no interest to. I've subbed into fucking billion page long HVV games late and tried to do the slog to catch up. It's not fucking worth it and everything just becomes a jumbled ass mess. It's only worth it if it's a breezy catch up. Pass. As for Ephi's read, it is a feels read and a lot of it is centered on the WIFOM of "would Nat reread the whole thread?" and most anyone who has played with me in recent games should know - the answer is fucking hell no. I rarely even do ISOs anymore. You can call me lazy or trash, but the idea that it's indicative of alignment is laughable.

As a final point of interest, I went back and read through jman's posts in Mario Mini and Fantasy Star (yes I know Fantasy Star was an unconventional game). I did this to try and get a better handle on jman's scum game. I feel like he plays pretty similarly as scum and town, except he posts a bit less as scum and is less prone to gambits. He did not post a ton this game before subbing out, and he did the one, seemingly inconsequential, gambit. I feel like everyone knows jman's propensity for gambits at this point, so I could absolutely see a scum team telling him to throw out a D1 "gambit" for some town cred early. Taking advantage of your own meta is a powerful tool.

======================================================

Oh wait, so now scum wanted Jman to gambit - but despite having multiple days to plan around said gambit... asked me to immediately discard all of that planning. Okay.

So there you have it. I think Nat is scum because he is floating along and making disingenuous arguments, downplaying other players. His defenses of HP and himself/jman don't really hold up under scrutiny.

Vote: Natiko

Well, you tried. I'll at least acknowledge that, even if it won't save you.

Randomless said:
Scum killing BoJack is a framejob on me. Now he is gone and can't verify my role claim.

Nat immediately going for me is overplaying his hand.

My friend, you went way too hard in trying to persuade people not to vote Royal at EOD yesterday. It's clear you wanted to push a misvote on HP, to then turn around and try and wagonmics your way into an LP scum read. Royal dying blew up your plan.

HPSauce · Oct 3, 2021

FateShirou said:
well duh
why the hell would i want your sorry ass in a potential mylo

You'd rather have scum in Mylo than me?

Lone_Prodigy · Oct 3, 2021

Randomless said:
Scum killing BoJack is a framejob on me. Now he is gone and can't verify my role claim.

Nat immediately going for me is overplaying his hand.

Bojack was universally town read and would've been killed last night regardless of who he had in his chat. You could also argue that killing him also prevented him from saying how you convinced him to vote for HP with you.

Zippedpinhead · Oct 3, 2021

Verelios said:
So you're on the Ephi is town train. Okay.

I want Ephi today. Fuck that.

I can get behind this, ephi was the most dismissive of my assumption that scum team could have more flavor differences then just romulans.
Her most pro town thing is the fact that she never got off scum!blarg when that vote happened

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

I got really heated EoD yesterday. I was upset that we let HP wiggle away again. Obviously, I am happy that Royal flipped scum. I had Royal as my 2nd top scumread. You can read all my posts where I mention that Royal is in a great position for scum, and it turned out that was true. The way the vote developed and considering how I feel about some of the people on the vote, I got very nervous that a mis-elim was happening and there was nothing I could do to stop it.

The Royal wagon was:
Shirou
HP
Vere
Zipped
LP
Nat

I trust Vere and Zipped. I do not trust HP or Nat. At the time I was unsure about LP, as well, though I am feeling better about him today. Shirou began looking worse to me yesterday, which I covered in a post yesterday. Vere is talking about it now as well, but Shirou going on and on defending Royal while his vote was on him was freaking me the fuck out.

I was sitting at my parents' house at the kitchen table on my laptop with my parents trying to talk to me about irrelevant bullshit and panicking that we might be throwing the game here. Not a good situation to be in, mental health wise. In retrospect I should've just fucked off and let y'all deal with it. I've been practicing better boundaries this game so far and it's been working out for me, but I ruined it there. In the future I'm not going to be afraid to miss EoD. Y'all aren't worth it.

What was I supposed to do if a bunch of folks I suspect are all stacking on someone? It made me think twice and I tried to steer things back on track to get HP out.

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

Zippedpinhead said:
I can get behind this, ephi was the most dismissive of my assumption that scum team could have more flavor differences then just romulans.
Her most pro town thing is the fact that she never got off scum!blarg when that vote happened

Yeah, I do want to hear her flavor name and whatever excuse she has though.

Gonna put my vote down to summon her though
Vote: Ephidel

Ephidel one armed combat until dawn, did your clairvoyance see this?

Natiko · Oct 3, 2021

I'd also still be fine with an Ephi vote. I absolutely believe the final two scum are Rando and Ephi at this point.

Randomless said:
I got really heated EoD yesterday. I was upset that we let HP wiggle away again. Obviously, I am happy that Royal flipped scum. I had Royal as my 2nd top scumread. You can read all my posts where I mention that Royal is in a great position for scum, and it turned out that was true. The way the vote developed and considering how I feel about some of the people on the vote, I got very nervous that a mis-elim was happening and there was nothing I could do to stop it.

The Royal wagon was:
Shirou
HP
Vere
Zipped
LP
Nat

I trust Vere and Zipped. I do not trust HP or Nat. At the time I was unsure about LP, as well, though I am feeling better about him today. Shirou began looking worse to me yesterday, which I covered in a post yesterday. Vere is talking about it now as well, but Shirou going on and on defending Royal while his vote was on him was freaking me the fuck out.

I was sitting at my parents' house at the kitchen table on my laptop with my parents trying to talk to me about irrelevant bullshit and panicking that we might be throwing the game here. Not a good situation to be in, mental health wise. In retrospect I should've just fucked off and let y'all deal with it. I've been practicing better boundaries this game so far and it's been working out for me, but I ruined it there. In the future I'm not going to be afraid to miss EoD. Y'all aren't worth it.

What was I supposed to do if a bunch of folks I suspect are all stacking on someone? It made me think twice and I tried to steer things back on track to get HP out.

Meanwhile the HP wagon had you, Ephi, and Royal on it. At best you can say, what, you trusted Ephi and Bojack? That's a wash (two town reads on each) - yet you were pretty against a vote for your supposed second highest scum read:

Randomless said:
Voting for Royal when he's not around to claim feels very wrong. Especially when he offered to claim and nobody pushed him for it earlier.

Randomless said:
We could get a claim from Royal. HP is what he is at this point.

It's almost as if you wanted to be able to give Royal a chance to claim the 'townie' part of his role. He even could've made a show about "give me time and I'll prove it!" You were stall

Natiko · Oct 3, 2021

Stalling to save your scummate* not sure why era is eating so many of my posts lately

Lone_Prodigy · Oct 3, 2021

I feel like town Random would've been more... apologetic, shall we say. "Oh yay we got scum even though I was pushing HP I'm so sorry." Instead he comes in and says that Nat bussed and gives Ephi a pass even though she forced a tie.

Also giving Zipped a pass when the last few targets have been pretty obvious is kinda ehh. I assume he got blocked or something in his response to me.

Verelios · Oct 3, 2021

Natiko said:
I'd also still be fine with an Ephi vote. I absolutely believe the final two scum are Rando and Ephi at this point.

Meanwhile the HP wagon had you, Ephi, and Royal on it. At best you can say, what, you trusted Ephi and Bojack? That's a wash (two town reads on each) - yet you were pretty against a vote for your supposed second highest scum read:

It's almost as if you wanted to be able to give Royal a chance to claim the 'townie' part of his role. He even could've made a show about "give me time and I'll prove it!" You were stall

Wait, this makes me think of Fate saying that too yesterday. That we should wait for Royal to come back to claim and I'm like "????? When the fuck has that happened?"

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

Natiko I know you hate re-reading, but do you think I would come into the game, make a massive reads list of everyone currently in the game as my third post, and hard bus 2 of my scummates immediately?

HPSauce · Oct 3, 2021

Randomless said:
Natiko I know you hate re-reading, but do you think I would come into the game, make a massive reads list of everyone currently in the game as my third post, and hard bus 2 of my scummates immediately?

'Scum would never'

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

HPSauce said:
'Scum would never'

I wanna hear Nat say that he thinks I'm a diabolical mastermind, because he's only flung insults my way so far.

Nat has played with me before, he knows I'm an easy target for abuse. That's all this is. I won't give him the satisfaction though. I will keep playing.

Natiko · Oct 3, 2021

Verelios said:
Wait, this makes me think of Fate saying that too yesterday. That we should wait for Royal to come back to claim and I'm like "????? When the fuck has that happened?"

No Vere you don't understand, it felt very wrong (even though Royal had already said the claim was unlikely to change anyone's mind).

Randomless said:
Natiko I know you hate re-reading, but do you think I would come into the game, make a massive reads list of everyone currently in the game as my third post, and hard bus 2 of my scummates immediately?

And which two teammates was it you hard bussed again? Blarg and Royal? Well let's just take a look:

Randomless said:
I do not think we should test a doctor claim.

HP yeet, anyone?

Immediately back to pushing for HP

Randomless said:
Ephi is a bad choice, I would do Blarg. I would do Royal but I don't think we have the votes, and they don't seem to be around.

Suggests openness to moving, but discourages it due to the idea that you may not have the votes. Ultimately you are next to last to switch to Blarg.

Randomless said:
HP flipping town resolves nothing. HP flipping scum does resolve you to an extent. I find it hard to believe D3 wagons were SvSvS and then the scum team settled on a fake doctor claim with that setup that would likely result in one of the other two scum taking the fall. That's just shooting yourself in the foot, especially knowing the scum that was voted out was a Godfather. Could scum still have done so? Yes of course, but I find it unlikely. HP flipping scum also resolves the Ambu/Vere flavour check on him, so I'm not just relying on this to chain things here. If HP flips town I'm going to need to do some serious re-evaluation. I won't just be jumping down LP's throat immediately.

I think HP is the way to go here, and this hand wringing over not making a mistake with our vote is just noise. Of course we want our vote to count, that's what we always want.

Initially yesterday HP flipping town does not resolve anything, will have to seriously re-evaluate, etc etc

Randomless said:
Here's where my head is currently at.

Lock-Town:
BoJack
malus

Very likely town based off behaviour, meta and claim:
Zipped

Likely town based off claim aligning with others claims (for now):
Vere

PoE (in no particular order):
Nat
Ephi
Shirou
HP
Royal
LP

=========================================

Out of that PoE, I feel best about Ephi and Shirou.

Ephi has been questioning others and hasn't been afraid to march to the beat of her own drum if she thinks there's something that people aren't noticing. She's been a bit gun-shy about posting reads but I think that is a tad NAI for her. If she doesn't have a strong read she will hesitate to post it, or mark it as a gut read. I like that she was on Blarg early, even if it was a bus, because it reinforced to me that going in on Blarg was a good idea. Her claim seems reasonable. It's difficult to prove but it seems very elaborate for a fake claim. I don't understand why a scum oracle would be out here giving us (seemingly accurate) information? Even if the information hasn't been entirely useful. I found myself agreeing with her that she shut down the cult talk early. Scum would want to play that up I think, and get a Zipped mis-lunch or something like that. Shades of Mafioso there. I don't think I want to eliminate Ephi today. I would put her at a light-town to null-ish read, but she's in the PoE due to lack of options at this point in the game. Could she be scum? Yeah, but I don't quite think so at the moment. If it's down to eliminate Ephi or no-vote/eliminate someone from my town reads, I would vote to eliminate Ephi, but it doesn't seem like that scenario is likely at the moment.

Shirou has felt like his normal self, maybe a little angy-er than usual. I noticed a bit of a change in his behaviour today, however. His 180 flip on HP was very weird. Him tying himself to LP and defending him was also curious. Paranoia has me believe this is a potential scum reaction to the narrowing PoE. If LP is scum I'd be inclined to believe Shirou is scum as well. Shirou's soft claim could be a number of roles that we haven't yet seen in this game, so I think it's certainly possible that he's town and so is LP. I'd prefer a full claim from him to really evaluate the possibility but I am not interested in fishing there. I had Shirou as a strong town read but after today I think he's sliding down a bit, to a light town read at best and maybe more of a null. I would only vote for Shirou in a similar scenario as the above described for Ephi, which does not seem to be likely today either.

Royal has picked up a bit since he's been more available. The initial extended absence and the tunnel on Shirou leaves a lot of room for scum to operate in, however. I like that despite the tunnel on Shirou, he's still going for HP. I agree with him that HP is probably the best flip for town to get right now. Royal being away at EoD is awfully convenient, because if he's scum and he picks up pressure he won't be able to claim.

I've already made my thoughts clear on LP. If HP flips scum I think LP is cleared. I think flipping LP before HP would be a huge mistake.

I should probably dig in on Nat to see what's up there. I did a re-read of jman earlier in the game and got very little from it. I think the Miller claim upon his subbing in is fine. If he's actually a Miller, that would probably be a good move to clear that up immediately. I thought jman was softing a Paranoid Gun Owner or similar role, but a Miller does match what he was describing to an extent, if the Miller has another power. However, scum can and will do anything, and Nat in particular can and will do anything, so I don't think the Miller claim is this great clear. Nat's behaviour around anex's elimination was pretty suspicious to me. It felt like he didn't buy that anex was scum and was asking others to convince him, but voted there anyway and then when anex flips town he gets to say "ah darn I knew it". I'll give Nat the benefit of the doubt for now, because subbing in when he did was certainly difficult, but this is something I will be going back to later to re-evaluate.

I think HP is the best flip for today. It will help town solve the game. I will be staying there for now, unless he completely drops out of contention, in which case I will be upset that he wriggled out again.

==============================

Voting order for today is something like: HP > Royal > Nat > Shirou > Ephi. I will not be voting one of my town reads today, and I think we should flip HP first before LP.

The start of you turning your read on Royal around, and despite saying he's your second choice we already established when push came to shove you tried to discourage the Royal vote and showed no interest in moving. Interestingly, here you think Royal being gone at EOD and being unable to claim is mildly sus, yet when actual day end comes suddenly you're urging everyone to hold off so he can claim as opposed to reiterating that you thought him holding off was sketchy. Intriguing.

Randomless said:
If HP flips scum, we know that anex roleblocked him on N3, which would be the reason for stopping the kill. This means malus still has a BP vest. A scum!HP means that LP is very likely not also scum. The doctor claim at the time would not make sense if the wagons were SvSvS D3. Scum!HP means that Vere's flavour cop ability is not just fluff and has some real use. There is something about my role that already leads me to believe that Vere's ability is not just fluff and a scum HP flip would confirm it, which also confirms Vere as town. This narrows the PoE to you, Shirou, Ephi and Royal. We can analyze vote data and interactions to help determine who is the remaining scum. That puts town in a good position.

If HP flips town, that's not quite as nice, but we can still analyze vote data and interactions. HP has been a leading wagon on many days, and I think regardless of his alignment, scum has been involved in moving those wagons around. The only living players who voted Launch on D1 were HP, LP, and BoJack. BoJack is absolutely town, so that implicates LP, but it's not a smoking gun. I would dig in more to analyzing votes after getting HP's flip.

Oh weird, later on in the day now HP flipping town would give good info! And while you won't be jumping down LP's throat you sure are keen to mention him as your next target of interest instead of your supposed second scum read in Royal.

Randomless · Oct 3, 2021

Read my posts Nat. Like this one, my third in the game, where I say I think both Blarg and Royal are scum:

Randomless said:
Okay here's my reads list:

Shirou: He's a bit more angry than usual, but he seems to be putting in effort to solve, poking around at various different places. His frustration reads genuine to me. Town lean

wee: I did not like the start of wee's D1. She was just posting gifs and flinging zingers at folks. She started to heat up at the end of the day though, I liked her press on HP, and her attempts to get folks to vote with her did very much feel like a town!wee thing, as Shirou also noted in defense of her when she was questioned. Her D2 was not as strong as her EoD1. I didn't like some of her posts, such as this one where she explains how HP should've just laid down and died, if he is truly town. If HP is town, then from his perspective he was confirmed town and Launch was not. I understand the self-pres vote there, even if I don't agree otherwise with which the manner HP used/claimed the ability. After the "red check" I feel like wee got a bit better again, considering possibilities and not just tunneling on Neki, making sure to ask others for their thoughts and votes on the situation, which I think is valuable data for town to have. Taken together, I would say light town lean for wee. A point of hesitation that I have, is that I found it much easier to read town!wee in Mafioso compared to this game. I hope we get a bit more from wee today so I can feel more confident in my read.

Zipped: He is engaging in conspiracies and relying heavily on flavour. I saw he soft-claimed today. Very much feels like town!Zipped to me.

Ephi: I did not like Ephi's D1. I felt she was keeping her cards very close to her chest, and her EoD vote switching was strange. Her D2 was very strong however. Her "actually my vote switching was on purpose" post was intriguing, but I think I get what she was going for there and I believe her. I think her questioning of others was very good on D2 and I'm looking forward to more of that. I appreciate the Blarg vote, which I will get to in a bit. I think light town lean for Ephi is where I'm at right now.

HP: I don't know how to feel about HP and it's bothering me a bit. He has posted a lot but I don't think we really got much content there. His D1 wasn't great, his D2 wasn't really either but it was a bit improved. I feel like he is coasting off the confirmed double vote ability right now. He posted some reads at the end of D2, after the red check, and it felt pretty fluffy to me. ATP joked earlier on that if HP starts sheeping others reads to watch out and HP chimed in that it was true, and I could that being the case right here. I hope we get more from HP today. I am thinking light scum lean.

anex: Seems to be playing very similarly to last game, where he was town. I appreciate the attempts to solve. I particularly liked a post where he included speculation of himself in the 3rd person. I feel like this would be a bit too on the nose to try as scum, especially for someone who is newer to the community and someone who was already called out this game on differing terminology (with "bussing").

Ambu: Not getting a lot from Ambu so far, though it seems he just claimed while I'm writing this. I am not sure if buy the claim yet, I need to think more on that in particular. He can't be scum this many times in a row, can he? His reaction to the "red check" felt off to me. It was posted very quickly after and lacked any explanation beyond "Nice". I think Ambu is a null for me right now but I could see him sliding down to slight scum lean. I want to re-read him now after this claim to see if I buy it.

jman: Pointless gambits ahoy! Very much seems like town!jman to me. I haven't had a chance to go back and read Mario Mini Mafia where he was scum to get a glimpse into his scum game, but his game so far seems very similar to previous town games I have seen of him.

Royal: Royal seems to be just gliding by so far with little suspicion or pressure. There were a handful of posts with some insightful reads, but I feel where Royal is at right now would be a great place for scum to be. Something like a light scum lean to null ish, read? Like I just need more Royal, in general. If a vig wants to shoot here I wouldn't object.

LP: Seems more prickly than usual, and posting a bit more than the usual minimum, as well. On D1, LP's frustration with players sticking tightly to their meta reads felt genuine. That seems like a town thing to worry about, because scum can use existing misconceptions of meta to fool townies. We've gotten way more LP so far compared to say, Royal. I would say light town read.

malus: I normally scumread malus when playing/speccing/reading games, but I am surprised that I am not this game? I feel like malus is actually trying to solve this game, even if he is struggling a little to put things together. I can feel the effort there, in posts like this where he is trying to explain his thought process but not quite succeeding. He has contradicted himself a few times and doesn't always seem to be paying close attention to the thread and the gamestate. This does not reflect my experiences with scum!malus, or indeed with malus in general. It is my hope that he's town telling here through this behaviour. I don't think scum would feel this same sense of resignation at this point in the game.

Blarg: Blarg is giving us nothing this game. After seeing how solve-y Blarg can be in Thing (before he turned, of course), this is giving me some pause. His vote on Launch D1 was extremely opportunistic and gave me bad vibes. This is why I appreciated Ephi's D2 vote on Blarg to put some pressure on there, though the "red check" ended up sucking all the air out of the room anyway. I think scum lean here.

BoJack: BoJack has felt off to me all game so far. Lots of weird posts, like this pocket-y one towards Yuta and Leo. After Blarg screamed SCUM UP from the rooftops all last game as scum, I am really nervous about posts like this and this and joking about being scum in general. This post doubling back on forming a town core as "half-joking" doesn't feel good to me either. This post feels kinda emotionally manipulative, like "golly gee I'm sorry my D1 is so bad". I really like this long post by Sneeks refuting BoJack's positions in the above post and creating some distance there after BoJack tried to cozy up to Sneeks. I have my suspicions that this post, along with Sneeks reads list, could be a big reason why she was chosen as the N1 kill. On D2, BoJack tried to cozy up with Leo in a similar manner to with Sneeks, and Leo similarly refuted Bo and scumread them. Look who ended up as the night kill?

For these reasons, I am going with BoJack right now.

Vote: BoJack

I'm done arguing with you. It's hilarious how quickly you swapped your read of me, from lock-town to lock-scum as soon as the winds moved.

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