Overall maximum teraflops for next-gen launch consoles?

  • 8 teraflops

    Votes: 43 1.9%
  • 9 teraflops

    Votes: 56 2.4%
  • 12 teraflops

    Votes: 978 42.5%
  • 14 teraflops

    Votes: 525 22.8%
  • Team ALL THE WAY UP +14 teraflops

    Votes: 491 21.3%
  • 10 teraflops (because for some reason I put 9 instead of 10)

    Votes: 208 9.0%

  • Total voters
    2,301
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M.Bluth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,338
wording matters Cerny said "supports RT." the rx 580 " supports RT," but you wouldnt ever use it that way. he never explicitly said RT hardware.
It's obviously intentionally vague, we don't know what's AMD's plan for ray-tracing, and there's a good chance whatever is in these consoles might differ somewhat from what they put into their own PC cards because it's a custom order by MS/Sony.

Whatever it is, I'd keep expectations in check. Even if they dedicate some space for "RT cores" it doesn't make sense to eat up too much of the die area, so again, I think it'll be very limited.

On the subject of RT, I suppose it's also worth mentioning that Polyphony has been demo'ing ray tracing pretty recently, but of course we have no solid info on the implementation they're looking to use.
TBH, though, Polyphony does all sorts of weird demos all the time. Didn't they have a setup where they ran GT5 (I think) on multiple PS3's once?
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,924
Hmmm, that person was an Artist at ND, right? They also walked back on what they said when they realised the spotlight of the internet turned toward them.

Yup! I'm thinking they caught a lot of flack from ND and/or Sony and had to put out their second statement to try and downplay the first comment.


TBH, though, Polyphony does all sorts of weird demos all the time. Didn't they have a setup where they ran GT5 (I think) on multiple PS3's once?

Yup, they also were showing GT Sport running in 8K at 120 FPS. True we don't know if that was a video, or them chaining multiple PS4 Pro's together, or running on a PS5 devkit. It's still fun to think about the possibilities :)
 

chowyunfatt

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
333
Man have I just stepped back in time? This thread is embarrassing more than informative it's like a Xbox fanboys wet dream. If power means that much just buy a pc, it's not like all Xbox games won't be on there too.

Discussing anything concrete is ignored pretty much but any small, most likely made up rumor from so called ms insiders who insidentyly are probably either spy's or rabid fanboys is pretty much drooled over.

What's more annoying is people like me that don't know the ins and outs of all the technical numbers would probably like to read some facts and information on the little information we have from knoligible people and what that relates to in real terms and what effect it will have on software.

I suppose I better come back after e3 when proper information is out as this thread is delving into fantasy land and wishfull thinking.

It's not an attack on any one person but it's quite draining reading in here. Pease all.....
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
Team 8 TF wanting to take some of team 2019 beatings? Sony been slapping people left and right guess some more won't be a problem.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
My $0.02 on the 8 TFLOPs speculation is pretty simple.

Even if an 8TFLOPs-level GPU appears realistic at a $399 price point, the question remains "why bother", if all that is possible at the target price is not considered to be a large enough generational leap from the previous generation?

I understand well that new generation console hardware isn't designed on the basis of arbitrary performance multipliers, however, even Sony have repeatedly gone on record in the past discussing what they perceive to constitute a generational leap, i.e. 10x performance, and it's clear that the slow-down in Moore's Law has meant that a revision to a slightly lower but still meaningful increase of roughly 8x is what they have demonstrably been prepared to wait it out and even extend an existing generation to push for.

I don't believe that the slow-down in process technology advancement is so bad that a mere 4.4x increase is something Sony would deem an acceptable upgrade from the PS4 ---- and even more so because of the existence of mid-gen consoles that change the perceived value equation in the eyes of consumers, and thus places even more onus on platform makers to push the boat out on their next-gen plans and gun for a more aggressive console spec..

I'm of the personal opinion that Sony will be gunning to even widen their traditional TDP, silicon and BOM constraints for this coming generational transition --- because the circumstances warrant it all the more, and their platform royalties and digital revenues provide an even greater buffer against potential financial losses early on.

For me an 8TFLOPs PS5 would represent a Sony that is being very conservative (and arguably complacent), almost more conservative than they have ever historically been before. If anything, I would argue that the limited tidbits of info. from them we do have strongly indicates otherwise.
 

BradGrenz

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,507
I am not sure of the knowledge base of reporter who talked to Sony (but there were some strange references in the article that made me think the author did not know enough about the PC space of hardware atm) and what the direct questions asked were. But what if it was the overly simple "does the playstation 5 support ray tracing?"

Cerny, a knowledgable person, would say yes, because duh it does, as many GPUs do in the strict sense. The author did not write verbatim what the question and answer scheme was, which would put a much greater light onto what to expect - i find that disappointing. I find it curious that the least intensive form of RT possible almost was mentioned explicitly by Cerny after that. The article or (if it is verbatim Cerny) could have said "you can expect much better reflections and more accurate lighting and shadows", but instead there is talk of RT for audio...

The author later clarified that Cerny talked a lot about ray tracing for visuals, he just didn't quote those parts directly. And for what it's worth, the quote that was included about ray tracing also being useful for audio only makes sense if he is referencing it in relation to some sort of hardware acceleration. Obviously I'd love to have the full transcripts, but I don't think it's that productive for everyone to tie themselves in knots on the assumption that Mark Cerny was being duplicitous.
 

sleepr

Banned for misusing pronouns feature
Banned
Oct 30, 2017
2,965
Console are coming at the end of 2020, no chance it's going to be 8 TF that's just bonkers. Unless Sony is doing the 2 SKU thing too, that I could believe.
 

GhostTrick

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,495
AMD was to be the worst company on the planet making gpu if they can only deliver a 8 TF on a 400$ console.


On a 400 dollars console supposedly coming with 1TB of the fastest SSD existing and an upcoming 8 core Zen 2 CPU.

If some of you expect a 14Tflops console with a Zen 2 8 Core CPU with 1TB of PCIe SSD for 400 dollars, you're in for a rude awakening, unless Sony decides to take a big loss on each units.
 

Dictator

Digital Foundry
Verified
Oct 26, 2017
4,955
Berlin, 'SCHLAND
The author later clarified that Cerny talked a lot about ray tracing for visuals, he just didn't quote those parts directly.
Do you have a link?
And for what it's worth, the quote that was included about ray tracing also being useful for audio only makes sense if he is referencing it in relation to some sort of hardware acceleration.
I do not think that it is the only Thing that makes sense, AMD has had presentations on RT in the context of Audio and visuals with low ray counts without RT core style acceleration.

I am not saying that anyone is being duplicitous, rather that we have precedent and a Lack of information - letting speculation run wild and be decidedly unconservative with expectations.
 
Jan 20, 2019
10,681
On a 400 dollars console supposedly coming with 1TB of the fastest SSD existing and an upcoming 8 core Zen 2 CPU.

If some of you expect a 14Tflops console with a Zen 2 8 Core CPU with 1TB of PCIe SSD for 400 dollars, you're in for a rude awakening, unless Sony decides to take a big loss on each units.

If AMD can not go ahove 40 cu on a new tecnology why bother making a new one? Wasn't the Navi supppose to be 20% better?

We are talking about being 2x more TF compare to a console who release 4 years ago ( in 2020 ).
 

GhostTrick

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,495
If AMD can not go ahove 40 cu on a new tecnology why bother making a new one? Wasn't the Navi supppose to be 20% better?

We are talking about being 2x more TF compare to a console who release 4 years ago ( in 2020 ).



For the record: I dont expect it to be only 8Tflops.

But in a 400 dollars box with supposedly an SSD with high capacity and speed but also a competent CPU, I dont see why it'd be problematic.
 

Cthulhu_Steev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,409
Man have I just stepped back in time? This thread is embarrassing more than informative it's like a Xbox fanboys wet dream. If power means that much just buy a pc, it's not like all Xbox games won't be on there too.

Discussing anything concrete is ignored pretty much but any small, most likely made up rumor from so called ms insiders who insidentyly are probably either spy's or rabid fanboys is pretty much drooled over.

What's more annoying is people like me that don't know the ins and outs of all the technical numbers would probably like to read some facts and information on the little information we have from knoligible people and what that relates to in real terms and what effect it will have on software.

I suppose I better come back after e3 when proper information is out as this thread is delving into fantasy land and wishfull thinking.

It's not an attack on any one person but it's quite draining reading in here. Pease all.....

Yep. It's pretty much ruining a normally brilliant thread. So much knowledge about tech at hand, and it's buried under fanboy scrapping.
 

Deleted member 18951

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,531
Yep. It's pretty much ruining a normally brilliant thread. So much knowledge about tech at hand, and it's buried under fanboy scrapping.

Yip, the person you quoted and seem to agree with is spot on and not in anyway adding to the shit discourse..... sadly i think two threads are needed, one for Xbox and one for Playstation. As soon as any tidbit of news or speculation drops this thread turns to shit.

Every. Single. Time.
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
5,990
St Kitts
I did not mean to kick up a hornets nest with my 8tflop comment. I didn't realize it was so controversial or regressive to the common thinking.

I'll stand behind the 8tflop camp (to be fair in the mid-8tflop camp) with the caveat of assuming I also think Sony believes $399 is a winning target price for them.

So I didn't really feel this was a console warrior comment but it appears some took it that way. It's not meant to put any dampener on Sony fans. I have no skin in this game.

As far as the old GAF quote – I rarely address it but here goes.

It's certainly not a post I'm proud of, it's laughable in hindsight, and not my best moment in terms of word choices. But I posted it and I own it. One of the lessons I took away was to be more thoughtful and less hyperbolic in my language as people took the tone and words more seriously then I expected. I also learned that words live on, but context doesn't. All the things I said before that post, and all the clarifications after, get lost to time.

I own what I said in that post, but I don't like the idea that it was part of some intentional misinformation campaign. I was a poster on that forum for years, under my own name, before the launch. I posted for years after. I also was the same person who put an end to all the MrX "Stacked GPU" rumors, and the majority of my posts were about pretty mundane questions about how the system worked. That post was not my best moment, but it was not some coordinated attack on the truth or representative of my engagement overall.

So there is my $02. I appreciate those with supportive comments. If people want to bring up the post to engage in an ad-hominem attack, that fine. It's a different time, and I'm happy to just be able to participate with the community.
You are good people man..... I can't even remember any previous comments nor do I care. And I think anyone bringing up hit from 2013ish should be ashamed o themselves, especially when considering what you are saying now is flat out reasonable. You are in the 8TF cam, nothing wrong with that...

I can see why you would say 8TF for a $399 box, though by my on estimates based onleaks I would put a $399 box at 10TF and a $499 box at 12TF.
 

Cthulhu_Steev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,409
Yip, the person you quoted and seem to agree with is spot on and not in anyway adding to the shit discourse..... sadly i think two threads are needed, one for Xbox and one for Playstation. As soon as any tidbit of news or speculation drops this thread turns to shit.

Every. Single. Time.

I don't really want a split thread (all in one place is better for me) I just want people to calm down a little in here and grow up. I love this thread, it would be a shame if it lost what it was.

Edit: oh, yeah. I see what you mean. I missed the 'xbox fanboys wet dream' bit. Apologies, I wasnt agreeing with that.
 

VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,007
Europe
Do you have a link?

I do not think that it is the only Thing that makes sense, AMD has had presentations on RT in the context of Audio and visuals with low ray counts without RT core style acceleration.

I am not saying that anyone is being duplicitous, rather that we have precedent and a Lack of information - letting speculation run wild and be decidedly unconservative with expectations.

Anyway,we will know soon what RT capabilities we can expect from next gen consoles when AMD officially introduces Navi at Computex.
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,079

Thanks for the link. From the start it was clear that RT wouldn't be for audio or Ai only. It would make sense to even mention it as a big feature for PS5 if it was so insignificant alongside the fastet SSD, 8K upscaling and PS4 BC. With the ND artist saying it was hardware (not saying I think in the first tweet then withdrawing it later because he realized it was too early to reveal it) and this tweet talking about visual RT, alongside the audio RT, plus the previous leaks, RT has to be a fundamental part of PS5 and not just a software feature devs can mimic. Anyway, fingers crossed.
 

misterb2001

Member
Oct 28, 2017
173
Could someone more tech savvy advise....

With what we know about PS5, will things like pop-in and harsh LOD switches be a thing of the past?

It's my single biggest gripe with games over the last 10 years.
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
Man I am bookmarking so many posts right now :)

I wonder if the smart move for Sony is to ditch the PS4 base and make the Pro the new low-end. 4tflop Pro for $299, 8tflop PS5 for $399 would be super compelling, if BC works as well as everyone hopes and even moreso if they sort out cross-buy.
Why have Pro for 299, when they could retire the Pro entirely and just have PS4 Superslim at 199?
If Microsoft want to have multiple SKUs, that's their strategy. Sony can just stick to what works for them, which is one premium PS5 and one excessively cheap PS4 slim. Even if that 199 price was acheived via inferior build quality and corner cutting. Anyone who still don't own a PS4, are not waiting to own a Pro. They would want a PS4 at as cheap a price as possible.
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
5,990
St Kitts
The performance of the chip will still effect the price though.

The CPU cost for this gen was bargain bin territory, will it be the same next gen? Or will CPU + GPU expenditure be more balanced?
Doesn't quite work that way. Its not like AMD sells them a CPU and a GPU.

AMD shows them what they have, sony/ms tells them what they want. AMD tries to make what they have fit to what they want (design the chip), sony and MS can help with this part, either with money or engineers or both. Once design has been finalized (take this word loosely as this is a moving target based on when they want to release the console) sony and MS contract out the fabrication of the chip.

Sony/MS basically pay some money for AMD to design the chip, and then afterwards pay them royalties for using the chip. AMD doesn't care if its an 8C zen or 16C zen or 40CU GP or 60CU GPU. The royalties you pay pretty much is identical across the board.

Shit gets real though when you go to the foundry, because over there you are paying a certain amount for a wafer. Usable area in the wafers they usually go for is around 70,000mm2. And the process you are going for will determine what you are paying for that wafer. This is also fixed and agreed upon via some sort of contract. So say you are building a 350mm2 chip, you will get around 200 of them from that wafer, if your chip is on a 14nm process it may cost you $15,000 for each wafer, if its on a 7nm process it may cost you $20,000. But even though you have spent $20,000/wafer, not all of those 200 chips are usable (the yield rate is a known thing and factored into contracts) so say they have around 80% yields, then only 160 of those 200 chip are usable. Which will mean the true cost of your chip is (20,000/160) + royalties/usable chip.

Over the course of the generation they could very well be paying AMD the exact same amount as "royalties" for each usable chip or console sold. What changes is the cost at the foundry, as yeilds improve over time or other foundries may come in later offering better contracts. In my loose example, that chip will cost $125 after its left the foundry. If all 160 chips make their way to a console and are sold then sony/ms can b paying AMD as little as $25/console sold as royalties which brings the total cost of the chip to around $150.
 
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gofreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,832
Do you have a link?

I do not think that it is the only Thing that makes sense, AMD has had presentations on RT in the context of Audio and visuals with low ray counts without RT core style acceleration.

I am not saying that anyone is being duplicitous, rather that we have precedent and a Lack of information - letting speculation run wild and be decidedly unconservative with expectations.

I wish the author released the conversation that was had specifically around ray tracing - the direct quotes - as he did with pricing. I think he's unaware of how interesting/useful that would be to people in order to ground expectations in what Cerny actually said, vs guesswork over what he really meant. Listening back to a podcast the author did after, he also seems to have a thing about not just releasing transcripts of what was said... but that's a shame with something like this, where you can often glean a lot of nuance from the way someone like Cerny talks. It's not that I think Cerny confirmed or denied special hardware explicitly, but I think we could take some direction on that from how he talked about it.

IMO it's still wisest to err on the side of no expectation wrt hardware RT. I could see Cerny talking about it in a very qualified way, purely because the raw compute power is probably there now to apply it in some ways.
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,079
Could someone more tech savvy advise....

With what we know about PS5, will things like pop-in and harsh LOD switches be a thing of the past?

It's my single biggest gripe with games over the last 10 years.

Well from what I read and the tech videos I watched, the SSD alone could allow a flow of data 15 times bigger or denser than the PS4 Pro, let alone if you encrust this with much better CPU, GPU, RAM, brandwidth and everything. You really have a meagre chance to see pop-in and low LOD models unless all characters are made with millions of polygons which won't be the case.
 

Segafreak

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,756
Could someone more tech savvy advise....

With what we know about PS5, will things like pop-in and harsh LOD switches be a thing of the past?

It's my single biggest gripe with games over the last 10 years.
Probably but maybe depends on the engine. RDR2 already eliminated this problem. I tried looking as far as I could in those huge environments and never seen a pop in.
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
PS5 is going to be 499$

Hold on to your hats.

Well this is the common consensus here and almost everywhere. 500 bucks with 100 bucks as loss too.
Or, that's what Sony WANT you to believe. I am still 50/50 on the odds of 399 or 499. I think Sony want everyone to assume it is 499, and either way they win. But if they announce 399 they will give similar shocks to their 8gb ram surprise this gen.
 

Deleted member 38397

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 15, 2018
838
Tut. Why did Mark Cerny choose Wired of all places to give this information? He should have gone to Digital Foundry and got a proper grilling!
 

Deleted member 22750

Oct 28, 2017
13,267
I'm not one bit surprised at the 8tf rumors for ps5. I just don't see Sony releasing a console over 399. PS3 is always going to be in their heads when developing consoles.

My guess with a 399 price:
Ps5-10
XboxA-10-12
 
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chowyunfatt

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
333
So if Albert thinks or knows Sony are at about 8tf won't Sony know just as much about Microsoft? Maybe if they are higher than 8tf and Sony knows or suspects and they just arn't bothered? The switch is less powerful than all 4 current gen consoles but Nintendo couldn't care less, maybe Sony has their own strategy that doesn't revolve around a arms race.

It's too far out but it wouldn't be out of the realm of fiction that Microsoft has a console of equal power to the ps5, let's just say 8tf for $50 less to appeal to the general public like Sony. Plus they also have another model to just cram in as much as possible, say 12tf and sell at $550 knowing it won't sell much but that they have the bragging rights with harcore gamers and can show all software running on that.

I can't see the point in having a low spec machine to beat the ps5, maybe it's the same spec instead but cheaper and they also have the top end locked in for the enthusiasts?

That would be really hard to combat against, same power and price plus a higher model instead of a lower and a higher one?

So basically 8 Vs 8tf and a 12 instead of 6 Vs 8 and a 12? If that makes sence
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,079
Or, that's what Sony WANT you to believe. I am still 50/50 on the odds of 399 or 499. I think Sony want everyone to assume it is 499, and either way they win. But if they announce 399 they will give similar shocks to their 8gb ram surprise this gen.

What most people believe it will be 499 bucks (dollars or euros) and maybe what Sony made us believe too if we estimate the hardware parts, but they said they will decide a decent and adequate price for the whole package. It won't be 399 bucks that is for sure but it may be just the middle price which is 449 bucks. This has a high chance to happen more those 2 prices.
 
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Son Goku

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
4,332
My $0.02 on the 8 TFLOPs speculation is pretty simple.

Even if an 8TFLOPs-level GPU appears realistic at a $399 price point, the question remains "why bother", if all that is possible at the target price is not considered to be a large enough generational leap from the previous generation?

I understand well that new generation console hardware isn't designed on the basis of arbitrary performance multipliers, however, even Sony have repeatedly gone on record in the past discussing what they perceive to constitute a generational leap, i.e. 10x performance, and it's clear that the slow-down in Moore's Law has meant that a revision to a slightly lower but still meaningful increase of roughly 8x is what they have demonstrably been prepared to wait it out and even extend an existing generation to push for.

I don't believe that the slow-down in process technology advancement is so bad that a mere 4.4x increase is something Sony would deem an acceptable upgrade from the PS4 ---- and even more so because of the existence of mid-gen consoles that change the perceived value equation in the eyes of consumers, and thus places even more onus on platform makers to push the boat out on their next-gen plans and gun for a more aggressive console spec..

I'm of the personal opinion that Sony will be gunning to even widen their traditional TDP, silicon and BOM constraints for this coming generational transition --- because the circumstances warrant it all the more, and their platform royalties and digital revenues provide an even greater buffer against potential financial losses early on.

For me an 8TFLOPs PS5 would represent a Sony that is being very conservative (and arguably complacent), almost more conservative than they have ever historically been before. If anything, I would argue that the limited tidbits of info. from them we do have strongly indicates otherwise.
That's true. Even when they went pretty proprietary with ps2 or completely nuts with ps3 it was never conservative. Maybe post PS3 they just aren't gonna ever go over that price point. I dunno though. Personally I'd be fine With $499 for a new gen but it does risk losing a huge amount of market share for them.

$399 with BC pretty much guarantees a massive lead
 

OnPorpoise

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
1,301
If we consider that Peter Rubin podcast where he expanded on Cerny alluding to a higher price point, and then combine that with the updated Gonzalo leak... a hypothetical $499 console running at 1.8GHz only hitting 8 teraflops seems a bit too conservative.
 

Son Goku

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
4,332
What most people belive it will be 499 bucks (dollars or euros) and maybe what Sony made us believe too if we estimate the hardware parts, but they said they will decide a decent and adequate price for the whole package. It won't be 399 bucks that is for sure but it may be just the middle price which is 449 bucks. This has a high chance to happen more those 2 prices.
Could be smart. They're gonna sell out that first holiday (though they should release in September or October to get 2 quick sales bumps in first few months between launch preorders then holiday sales) and then they can price cut sometime in 2021 but only $50
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,079
Could be smart. They're gonna sell out that first holiday (though they should release in September or October to get 2 quick sales bumps in first few months between launch preorders then holiday sales) and then they can price cut sometime in 2021 but only $50

I also believe 50 buck price cut will be more common and faster for PS5 like in bursts after shorter periods compared to PS4.
 
Feb 26, 2018
2,753
8TF is alive?
All those rumors are so confusing

Sony confirming ps5 and droping vague RT and ssd PR mentions (without any actual specs) and MS insiders pushing vague "more powerful" statements exactly after Cerny interview

Console Cold War have finally started
 

DavidDesu

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
5,718
Glasgow, Scotland
Well from what I read and the tech videos I watched, the SSD alone could allow a flow of data 15 times bigger or denser than the PS4 Pro, let alone if you encrust this with much better CPU, GPU, RAM, brandwidth and everything. You really have a meagre chance to see pop-in and low LOD models unless all characters are made with millions of polygons which won't be the case.
That's what I'm hoping for. For me this generation took a massive leap in console image quality, especially in the big blockbuster games which look super smooth. This "next-gen" memory access speed seems like it should virtually eliminate any and all pop up or noticeable LOD changes. Even on GT Sport on a Pro there's super noticeable change in detail in the car up ahead once they get a certain distance away from you. It's super distracting. I hope this is well and truly gone next gen.
 

thevid

Puzzle Master
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,313
I'm not seeing the hint at a higher price point in Cerny's value comment. He could just as easily be talking about providing good bang for your buck, especially if Microsoft sandwiching the PS5 with Lockhart and Anaconda is true.

There are a lot of rumors flying around ATM, and it's hard to make heads or tails out of it all with how vague they can be. We had leaks of 1 TF vs 1.8 TF as early as June 2012 last time around, so hopefully some numbers about next gen leaks soon.
 
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