Assuming MS's plans are true (no next gen games until 2022 at the latest), it begs the question, what if the first party devs simply arent ready for a 2020 launch?
- Coalition just shipped a game a few months ago. they wont have any games ready at launch.
- obsidan shipped a game two months ago. they wont have any games ready at launch.
- ninja theory is coming out with a game next year. they wont have any games ready at launch.
- playground games shipped forza horizon 4 last year. 2 years is probably not enough for a fable reboot.
its safe to assume that none of these studios are making cross gen games. they might release remasters or patches for xsx versions, but its safe to expect no new cross gen or next gen titles from them until 2022.
that leaves
- turn 10- racing game. i can see them getting away with a cross gen title. the genre has stagnated anyway. same could be true for polyphony digital. next gt might be cross gen.
- state of decay devs - last released a game in may 2018. 2.5 years is probably too soon to get a game ready for launch. holiday 2021 would give them 3.5 years. i highly doubt their next game is a cross gen title.
- rare - last release march 2018. they could have a smaller banjo or ratchet style game ready for release. but if they are working on an AAA game i highly doubt its cross gen since it wont release by the end of 2021 anyway.
- the initiative - this new studio is the only candidate that makes sense to be making a cross gen game. probably started dev in 2017, too early for next gen. ms likely didnt finalize their plans until 2018 when they first announced their next gen plans. maybe they have a launch and launch window game along with halo infinite.
so thats three games at launch or during the launch window. forza 8. halo infinite. initiative new ip (maybe). and i think this is just matt booty telling us to keep our expectations down. its clear that their studio acquisitions were done a bit too late.
i think when at their xbox meeting, they will show off halo, initiative new ip, forza, state of decay 3 and rare's new game. pretty much an even split between cross gen and next gen.
sony will likely show off horizon 2, gt7, bluepoint's remake, spiderman and maybe a gow tease. i think gt7 is cross gen and bluepoint's game WAS cross gen since they were hiring people for a ps4 title. but making horizon and bluepoint's next gen is probably the only reason why they will have more next gen games at launch.
regardless, its pretty evident that both first party studios need to build new studios and more teams within each studio because if they cant get next gen only games out in 3 years they we are going to have some pretty rough years next gen. i dont see how spiderman and gow release in 2021 after just three years in dev. tlou3, ghosts 2, death stranding 2 and ghosts 2 are also likely 2023 titles at best. sony too needs a lot more teams to bridge the gap.