So I'm doing some D1 vote analysis because something caught my eye. Want other opinions on it.
TL;DR - Ephi seems to be avoiding LP, didn't vote there on D1 despite the vote hopping. Think they're teamed together. Want to flip LP first.
I'll start where there's a lot tied up. At one point, it was:
HP - 4 votes (ATP, anex, wee, Fate)
malus - 4 votes (Sneeks, Jman, Amb, Ephi)
LP - 4 votes (Royal, Leo, Launch, Blarg)
If anyone here is scum, this is where it will change. I want to focus on Ephi's movements here.
This is the post where they explain their actions of D1 - I'll come back to it. At this point, Ephi jumps to Sneeks. It seems pointless as Sneeks was on zero at this point, but I think it might be a buffer vote to explain the rest of their actions. Ephi moving makes it just a 2-way tie between HP and LP.
After some movement, Ephi moves to Launch. This is where it gets suspect and why I think Sneeks was just a buffer. If Ephi jumps straight to Launch, it could be construed as trying to save someone. In the post I linked above, Ephi claims they didn't know the Launch train would catch on. After all, there were only two votes. But Ephi's vote bumps it up to 3 votes, tied with LP, so well in contention. Especially since there seemed to be some appetite for Launch that day.
Following this, Blarg jumps immediately to Launch. Neki follows a few minutes later. This puts Launch tied with HP, and LP out of the spotlight:
HP - ATP, anex, wee, Fate, malus
Launch - Me, LP, Ephi, Blarg, Neki
I think this would suit Ephi and LP if it wasn't for Blarg Blarging about. Blarg jumps from Launch to LP. This puts LP back into contention, with HP slightly in the lead. Then HP comes in with the double vote, putting Launch one ahead. Then Ephi jumps to HP. This would be interesting to get other people's opinions on. If Ephi is scum, why make the jump? It could be two-fold: keep the race between the two parties, leaving LP out of it, and jumping off a train they know is town.
But why have I tied Ephi and LP together? Well, in the post linked above, Ephi explained their reasoning for vote hopping - to see what people would do. I just find it strange that in all that vote hopping, they managed to hit every leading train EXCEPT for LP. When running through their reasoning, something stood out too:
Malus was a boring vote. Acceptable, but boring. Sneeks wanted to vote Malus, and I didn't actually trust her, her snipe at me voting there making her want to move, or the fact that absolutely nobody moved when Yuta went to her.
LP was up there as an option at the time, largely being voted on what felt like tone.
Sneeks herself was apparently not interesting enough as a vote, which I'll admit did surprise me. I didn't actually expect my momentary Sneeks vote to do anything though, Yuta had tried that already, I voted there to express my interest, basically.
HP's little blowup with Bo earlier in the day had stuck with me. Pair that with a lot of posts of which looked like bickering and anger and provocation and I was willing to vote there.
They sort of glaze over LP in their analysis. Sort of hand waves it away. Malus was a boring vote, yet Ephi managed to vote there. I think talking about LP here is just because it was expected. To tick a box. Ephi gives their opinion on what they think of every train, except for LP's. No opinions on it.
So this makes me suspicious because there was no reason for Ephi to avoid LP out of all of them. And in a
D1 post about who they WOULDN'T vote out, LP didn't make the list. It's only recently in D3 that Ephi has started to acknowledge LP more. When it comes to malus's distrust of LP, Ephi has focused more on why this makes malus look sus (
Example 1,
example 2).
Ephi starts to hone in on LP
here, but it reads really light, making sure to say at the end how LP is looking better after dropping the ATP topic.
And this one seems toothless and backs off LP altogether. Even seems a bit jokey at the end.
Saying all this, I would be more inclined to flip LP first, even though I've mostly focused on Ephi. I want some information on those D1 trains. If LP flipped scum, Ephi is 100% where we should look next. If LP flipped town though, it wouldn't make Ephi look quite so scummy and I'd maybe think about HP again.
